The Latest from Iran (21 October): What if Nothing Important Happens?

2115 GMT: Khamenei Roadtrip --- Media Lowlight of the Day. Oh, dear, a pretty spectacular MediaFail from Reuters who, rather than going to their Tehran correspondent, rely on their reporter in Paris to get the story all wrong:

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears to have scored a political success by gathering leading clerics in the holy city of Qom around him in a show of unity after months of in-fighting.

Iranian media highlighted pictures on Thursday of a smiling Khamenei sitting with several top Shi'ite Muslim dignitaries, including some who have been critical since the disputed re-election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last year....

Among the sages pictured sipping tea with Khamenei was Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, a critic of Ahmadinejad, along with five other clerics who have the elevated status of "marja-e taqlid" (source of emulation), meaning that Shi'ite Muslims may choose them as a personal spiritual guide.

Their turnout belied rumors that senior religious figures would boycott Khamenei's annual visit to the center of Shi'ite learning in protest at a fierce crackdown on reformists and moves to isolate and intimidate dissident clerics.

About the only accurate information in this is that Makarem-Shirazi was present on Wednesday. None of the others at the meeting have the rank of "marja-e taqlid" --- indeed, no cleric with that status apart from Makarem-Shirazi has deigned to see Ayatollah Khamenei in the first three days of his Qom visit.

Yet, as stunning as this failure is, it may be dwarfed by the misunderstanding of the "senior Western diplomat" who fed the Reuters story: "(Khamenei's) trip shows the leader has the power to unite factions ... and it is a message to those who hoped the in-fighting may lead to the collapse of the system."

2025 GMT: Did the Supreme Leader Just Smack Down the Senior Clerics? Well, this is an interesting way to end the evening....

I've just had a closer look at http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1366 to "thousands" of scholars and clerics. Most of it is a restatement of the "enemies trying to divide us" line: "They want to deprive the establishment of the vast intellectual, rational and logical support of clerics, and isolate and tarnish the reputation of the revolutionary clergymen. [We] should vigilantly counter these plots."

Nothing earth-shaking there. But this woke me up. The Supreme Leader had a long passage on clergy and Government which ended with this injunction about "the rule of religion and religious values, not the rule of clergymen": "In the Islamic establishment, being a clergyman is not enough for receiving governmental responsibilities, because being a clergyman alone does not guarantee competence, just as it does not negate it."

Am I wrong in seeing this as a message to the senior clerics, many of whom have declined to see the Supreme Leader and confer authority on him this week? A message which says, "I, Ayatollah Khamenei, may not have the highest religious rank but --- because of my other qualities --- I do not need that to have my supreme position"?

1945 GMT: Graffiti of the Day. In his speech in Qom, the Supreme Leader referred to those who protested the 2009 election as "microbes". Here's the response: "Microbe Yourself":

1609 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that Seyed Ali Akbar Nabavi, the father of imprisoned student activist Zia Nabavi, was summoned by the Ministry of Intelligence and interrogated for seven hours after visiting his son in Ahvaz Prison.

1605 GMT: CyberWatch. A new website for Ayatollah Sane'i has been launched.

Sane'i's previous site was recently blocked by Iranian authorities.

1600 GMT: Larijani to Ahmadinejad "You Can Trust Us". Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swipe at the Government after yet another delay in implementation of subsidy cuts for gasoline. He said the government should "respect the timetable" for the cuts and added that the Majlis will be happy to supervise implementation.

1555 GMT: Sanctions All-is-Well Alert. Minister of Trade Mehdi Ghazanfari has said sanctions will be bypassed by reforming conditions of trade, with a special package to support exporters.

1545 GMT: Still Going Green at the Universities. Kalemeh reports that, in a coordinated and decentralised initiative, the Islamic Association at Tehran University and Tehran University Medical Science Faculty turned the university "green" through an "Informal Student Dialogue".

Taking place simultaneously at approximately 20 Tehran University campuses, the programme distributed Green symbols, former President Mohammad Khatami's book A Letter for Tomorrow [Namei Be Farda], books by Dr. Ali Shariati, Imam Khomeini's testament, and pictures of Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, former President Mehdi Bazargan, Shariati, and Iran-Iraq War martyrs Hamid Bakeri and Ebrahim Hemmat to freshman students.

Islamic Association members also discussed the current situation at the university, the political climate in Iran, the Green Movement, attacks on the university dorms, and new opportunities for civic activities and student rights with incoming students.

1455 GMT: Parliament and Government. Next week, the Parliament will discuss a possible compromise with the Ahmadinejad Government on the 5th Budget Plan.

1445 GMT: Suprressing the Reformists. Rah-e-Sabz reports that plainclothes forces attacked the offices of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution on Wednesday, locking up two employees in a room and taking away computers and documents.

1320 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi makes it clear:"Sanctions are finished and have no effect."

1255 GMT: In the Bazaar. According to reports, Ali Asgari, the Deputy Minister of Economy and head of Iran's tax organisation, has said gold-sellers have one month to reach an agreement on the government's value-added tax proposals.

1220 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Even the Khamenei trip to Qom does not guarantee a truce in the fighting within the establishment.

MP Mohsen Kouhkan has used the Supreme Leader’s recent remarks, especially about the enemy attempting to separate Islam from “clergymen” and “politics”, to claim certain groups and figures based in Iran are trying to promote the idea of “Islam without clerics”.

Koukhan attributed the danger to foreign-based media outlets but, in a shot at Ahmadinejad advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, also blamed "certain figures who even hold (government) posts”: “They respect clerics in public, but it is only pretence,” the veteran legislator added.

1100 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Two stories of interest....

The Los Angeles Times carries the statement of Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan that his country's companies remain "free to make their own decisions" about whether to comply with US and European sanctions.

Babacan said Turkish businesses would be unwise to break off ties to Iranian firms when many European, Chinese and Russian companies "are still doing quite a big business with Iran and finding open doors".

US officials use The Washington Post to claim that Iran is secretly trying to set up banks in Islamic countries, including Iraq and Malaysia, using dummy names and opaque ownership structures to skirt sanctions.

The officials claim Iran has had limited success, at best and say this is a sign that Tehran is feeling the pressure of sanctions. A "senior administration official" said, "The Iranians, we believe, are trying to set up operations in a number of places, and it's an indication that they can't do normal banking."

An Iraqi official said Tehran has established at least two banks in Baghdad, including one affiliated with Bank Melli, Iran's largest commercial bank. Iran also has tried without success to establish commercial banks in Iraqi Kurdistan.

1011 GMT: How the Regime Has Changed. Writing for Rooz Online, Roozbeh Mirebrahimi evaluates how the shifting position of Iran's leading institutions since the 2009 election:

The IRGC [Revolutionary Guard], which was a military organization, has now turned into a powerful economic cartel and expanded its activities in all political spheres of the Islamic republic. The largest economic and business groups are gradually falling under the control of the IRGC.

Regarding the Majlis, not only has the legislature become void of real representatives of the people, but is whole raison d’être has come into question. After the election, its two main functions that of passing laws and monitoring the management of the country have been sidelined by the indirect or direct actions of the leader, or one of his subordinate bodies.

The State Expediency Council which at one time was the arm of the leader, has turned into a nuisance for him and its powers have been taken away from it. It plays no role in the current power structure.

The Judiciary has for all practical purposes turned into a tool in the hands of the IRGC. The attempts to present the branch as an independent one have all gone. The branches and courts across the country have no qualms in presenting themselves as mere tools of the Guards.

The Assembly of Experts on Leadership continues to be a ceremonial body. And while some of its members express some criticism over some issues, in reality this body has no role in the current power structure. So the actual players in the field have diminished since the presidential race of 2009.

The [Supreme] Leader is now...affiliated [with] one...faction in the on-going power competition and battles. The IRGC is now the main arm of the leader in running the country. This monolith is what will in fact shorten the life of the Islamic regime.

0945 GMT: Bush Advisor Becomes Iran's Best Friend Shocker. When he was a key political advisor to President George W. Bush, I don't think Karl Rove --- the man who advocated war on Iraq for electoral success and who helped promote Iran's inclusion in the "Axis of Evil" --- received much favourable coverage in the Iranian press.

Times change. This morning Fars applauds Rove's comments in the German magazine Der Spiegel with the headline, "Obama Has Become a Disaster for America".

0930 GMT: Parliament and Government. The Ministers of Culture and Islamic Guidance and of Economic Affairs will appear in Parliament next week to answer questions.

0835 GMT: The Khamenei Roadshow. Ahh, here's the attempt to rejuvenate the Supreme Leader's public campaign in Qom....

IRNA posts a lengthy, effusive article about Ayatollah Khamenei meetings "thousands" of scholars and clerics, chanting, "We are all soldiers of the Supreme Leader."

The report adds that the presence of women seminary students was especially remarkable.

And then, far down, it notes that the Supreme Leader saw clerics on Wednesday, repeating the list of names without any further information.

Meanwhile, Fars is still struggling to make something of the Wednesday meeting. It re-posts a photograph and then highlights the one senior figure present --- Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi --- with a summary of his comments to a delegation of German legislators: "What happened in the (2009) election, including the domestic issues that occur, in any such campaign, is done, and the differences never hurt the country's internal unity."

0820 GMT: The start to Thursday may be slow, but even that lack of news is significant. We have a separate snap analysis on the apparent difficulties with the Supreme Leader's offensive in Qom.

Meanwhile, news comes in that four Azeri activists --- Dr. Alireza Abdolahi, Shahram Radmehr, Behboud Gholizadeh, and Ahmad Khiyavi --- have been released on bail from Tabriz Prison.