The Latest from Iran (16 November): Can the Arrests Be Stopped?

2030 GMT: Un-Diplomatic Behaviour. Well, here's a story to pick up a slow evening. From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:

France has accused Iranian security services of committing "unacceptable acts of violence" on French diplomatic personnel in Tehran.

The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement today that the entry to the French Embassy residence in Tehran was blocked by unidentified officials on November 14.

French officials said plainclothes security officers struck at least two French diplomats and arrested guests arriving at the residence of Ambassador Bernard Poletti for a concert of Persian music.

The statement said that French authorities this morning summoned the Iranian ambassador in Paris "to express their strongest condemnation."

There have been no comments from Tehran on the incident.

1630 GMT: Khamenei and the Clerics. Readers point us to a brief story in Khabar Online on the Supreme Leader's third trip in less than a month to Qom.

There is no detail on content but there is the intriguing note that Khamenei met Grand Ayatollahs Shobeiri Zanjani and Javadi Amoli. That matches information which EA has received that those two have become critical to the Supreme Leader's position: if they turn against him, Khamenei will have the support of only a minority of the Grand Ayatollahs.

More later in the week....

1625 GMT: Reading the Internal Situation Correctly? Interesting statements, pointing to the emphasis in US policy, from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates today:

We even have some evidence that Khamenei, now, (is) beginning to wonder if Ahmadinejad is lying to him about the impact of the sanctions on the economy. And whether he's getting the straight scoop in terms of how much trouble the economy really is in.

Building on this assessment of the economic tensions within Iran, Gates rejected airstrikes:

A military solution, as far as I'm concerned....It will bring together a divided nation. It will make them absolutely committed to obtaining nuclear weapons. And they will just go deeper and more covert.

The only long-term solution in avoiding an Iranian nuclear weapons capability is for the Iranians to decide it's not in their interest. Everything else is a short-term solution.

1340 GMT: Khamenei and the Clerics. Watch this space because this could be very big....

In the midst of working on a special analysis of what may be a critical rift between the Supreme Leader and the senior clerics in Qom (hint: it also includes former President Hashemi Rafsanjani), we have received word that Ayatollah Khamenei may have paid yet another trip to Qom on Saturday night.

If so, this is the Supreme Leader's third visit to the city in less than a month. And trust us, it's not for the nightlife....

1335 GMT: Shutting Down the Lawyers. More information to complement Josh Shahryar's analysis this morning.

The names of the 4th and 5th lawyers arrested this weekend have emerged: Roza Gharachorlou and Mohamad Housein Nayeri were detained, following the seizure of Sara Sabaghian, Maryam Kianarsi, and Maryam Karbasi at Imam Khomeini Airport on Saturday morning.

1055 GMT: Diversion Alert. Iranian authorities have been chest-puffing this week that they are launching five days of war games, beginning on Tuesday, to highlight Iran air-defense capabilities, especially against missile strikes, and to warn adversaries against attacking.

The exercise may be more style than substance, but it is a ringing of Pavlov's Bell for the western media: The Daily Beast, the would-be mediator of Web-based news, has the story of "Saber Rattling" at #4 on its "Cheat Sheet", linking to a very excited piece in The Wall Street Journal.

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A day after they "confessed" on national television (see 0755 GMT), the two German journalists who interviewed the son and lawyer of the condemned Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, have been charged with espionage.

0837 GMT: Parliament v. President. The pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Republic News Agency is really upset this morning with the Parliament's decision on Sunday to take control of the Central Bank away from the Government. There are two prominent articles attacking the decision and those blamed for it, notably leading MP Mohammad Reza Bahonar.

0835 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America Persian, noting the failure of the Central Bank to provide Iran's rate of growth in its annual report, considers the "bleak outlook" for the Government's expansion programme.

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rooz Online summarises the latest situation of a number of detainees, including attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, journalist Hengameh Shahidi, and former Mousavi campaign workers Zeynab Bahraini and Mohammad Ozlati Moghaddam.

0815 GMT: A Lawyer Protests. On his blog, exiled attorney Mohammad Mostafaei posts an open letter to the Supreme Leader. The defence lawyer challenges the propaganda of state television and insists, "Even if your followers had arrested me, I would not have stopped my work."

Mostafaei declares to Ayatollah Khamenei, "This is the first and last time I am writing a letter to you as I believe you don't deserve your post."

0755 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis from Josh Shahryar, asking, "Arresting Lawyers --- Who's Next?", and wondering if key groups in Iran will stand up and challenge the detentions.

News comes in of another person behind bars: Parvin Tajik, the sister of imprisoned journalist Abdolreza Tajik, has reportedly been sentenced to 1 1/2 years. She was tried without the presence of a lawyer and was convicted of "propaganda against the regime".

And there is more on the regime's showpiece of nationally-televised "confessions" from Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery, as well as her son, her lawyer, and the two German journalists, working for Bild am Sonntag, who tried to interview them.

One of the Germans said he had been deceived by Mina Ahadi, an activist who is prominent in the International Committee Against Stoning, initially set up to protest the execution-by-stoning sentence passed down on Ashtiani.  The journalist "confessed", "I didn't know anything about this issue. But Ms. Ahadi knew about it and since she could benefit from the propaganda on my arrest, she sent me to Iran. I will surely file a complaint against her when I return to Germany," the Farsi voiceover quoted him as saying."

The second German said, "I agree that I made a mistake because I was unaware and I was deceived by Ms. Ahadi."

A woman identified as Ashtiani, her face blurred and her words voiced over (Ashtiani speaks only Azeri), said on the broadcast, "I am a sinner."