Wikileaks-Iran Analysis: What This Means For Tehran and Arab States (Tehrani)

To interpret the Wikleaks documents on Iran, EA turns to its correspondent, Mr Tehrani:

The latest Wikileaks "dump" of previously secret US diplomatic communication gives us little in the way of new information on the Islamic Republic of Iran. There is no smoking gun on the atomic programme nor any new revelation on the Iranian meddling in Iraq, Lebanon and beyond. However, the documents provide an illuminating confirmation of what many could have previously sensed to be the prevailing mood within the Middle East regarding the regime run by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Khamenei.

Not surprisingly, the overall picture is a grim one. According to the material made available so far by The Guardian, the cluster of so-called "moderate" states, informally led by Saudi Arabia, have developed a distinct "Iranophobia". Their evident distrust-paranoia of Tehran and the almost manic fear of an aggression --- nuclear or otherwise --- by Iran against them has reached the point in which constructive diplomatic engagement between the current Iranian government and its regional counterparts borders on the meaningless. As summed up brilliantly by a high level Qatar official in a conversation with the local US embassy, the Iranians "lie to us and we lie back to them".

The frequent handshakes and photo opportunities produced by both sides in Tehran or other Arab capitals should be taken even more at face value, comparing them to the hollow exchange of pleasantries between Western and Eastern bloc politicians during the Cold War. The significant improvements of the Khatami era (1997-2005), when permanent detente between Iran and its Arab neighbours became a distinct possibility on the horizon, have finished in the trashcan of history, transformed into the deep acrimony of today. As highlighted by a cable produced in March 2009 by the US ambassador to Riyadh --- well before Iran's controversial presidential elections of the same year --- Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, the leader of the anti-Iranian front, chastised Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki for Iran's relentless "interference" in Arab affairs and gave Tehran one year to mend fences, a deadline which ostensibly was not met by Iran.

Abdullah's distinct anti-Iranian credentials are once again highlighted by his patronising attitude towards the "Persians" as he decried the involvement of Iran in Palestine: "They are Arabs" was Abdullah's reply to Mottaki when the latter protested that Hamas was, after all, a fellow Muslim group.  

What is therefore worrying for Iran is the lack of any opposition within the region's Arab monarchies to a US attack on Tehran. We have already read leaks and scoops over  the past several months of the first stages of Saudi-Israeli cooperation for a military strike against Iran. The Wikileaks revelations fill out the scenario was in requests by the coastal states of the Persian Gulf, who appear to be even willing to allow their air space to be used discreetly for the raids., and by Saudi Arabia itself, who called for the "head of the snake to be bitten off". Rather than attempt to shore up the chances of peace, the various Arab princes and kings at times pressed vociferously for strikes against the Iranians, to the point of making sound the US --- which has after all refrained from attacking Iran so far --- like a relative peace dove.

For all the boasting in Tehran of the impossibility of an air strike against Iran and its repeated hollow overtures to its Arab "brothers", the sheer antipathy rising across the region towards an Iranian state, which has not cleared up doubts regarding its legitimacy since June 2009 and which continues to stock up fears with its atomic programme, offer Iran a worrying scene.

And the volatile nature of Tehran's allies is not promising either. The sheer amount of bargaining that went into creating the coalition that is propping up Nouri al-Maliki's new cabinetmeans that the supposed Iranian ally's hold on power in Baghdad is shaky from the word go. Hezbollah is increasingly involved in national politics in Lebanon, weakening its propensity to submit without reservation to Tehran's desires. Abdullah's reply to Mottaki regarding Hamas suggests that Riyadh still has some clout in Gaza.

 If anything, the new Wikileaks documents have confirmed that Iran is extremely isolated politically within the region, relying as it is on mostly shaky allies, such as Hamas or Nouri al-Maliki, to make inroads into the Arab world. The opportunistic attitude of the United Arab Emirates, allowing Iran to make sure of its trading infrastructure to import the bulk of its consumer goods, could also come to an end.

The Foreign Ministry officials who work out of their grandiose buildings at the United Avenue in Tehran are best advised to pore carefully through the electronic files and advise their political leaders accordingly. Fear and hatred of Iran is now pervasive among the leaders of the Arab kingdoms.