Wikileaks-Iran Special: A State-by-State Regional View (The Newest Deal)

Our partner The Newest Deal gets behind the headlines on the Wikileaks documents and posts this valuable summary, with links to the original US cables:

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia's King, Foreign Minister, Prince Muqrin, and Prince Nayif all agreed that the Kingdom needed to cooperate with the US on resisting and rolling back Iranian influence and subversion in Iraq. The King was particularly adamant on this point, and it was echoed by the senior princes as well. Al-Jubeir recalled the King's frequent exhortations to the US to attack Iran and so put an end to its nuclear weapons program. "He told you to cut off the head of the snake," he recalled to the Charge', adding that working with the US to roll back Iranian influence in Iraq is a strategic priority for the King and his government.

As the US cable notes, Saudi bureaucrats often take a pacific stance towards Iran, but diverge significantly from the more bellicose advice received from senior Saudi royals.  In December 2005, the Saudi king expressed his anger that the Bush administration had ignored his advice "that whereas in the past the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Saddam Hussein had agreed on the need to contain Iran, U.S. policy had now given Iraq to Iran as a ‘gift on a golden platter.'" The king's "frequent exhortations to the U.S. to attack Iran" were recalled by the Saudi ambassador to Washington in an April 2008 meeting with Gen. David H. Petraeus, then the incoming Central Command chief, while the foreign minister said that while he preferred economic pressure, the “use of military pressure against Iran should not be ruled out.”

The Saudi Foreign Minister, on the other hand, instead called for much more severe US and international sanctions on Iran, including a travel ban and further restrictions on bank lending. Prince Muqrin echoed these views, emphasizing that some sanctions could be implemented without UN approval.  Saudi Deputy Director for Western Affairs Department Mojahid Ali Alwahbi, for his part, strongly advised against taking military action to neutralize Iran's program, instead  asserting that establishing a US-Iranian dialogue as the best course of action, suggesting that the U.S. open an Interest Section or reopen its our embassy in Tehran.

EGYPT

In a cable sent in February 2009, U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey recounted: "President Mubarak told [Middle East envoy George] Mitchell during his recent visit here that he did not oppose our talking with the Iranians, as long as 'you don't believe a word they say.'" Scobey continues in the cable: "Mubarak has a visceral hatred for the Islamic Republic, referring repeatedly to Iranians as 'liars,' and denouncing them for seeking to destabilize Egypt and the region."

The leaked documents also show that Mubarak was in agreement with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu that a nuclear Iran would lead to an arms race in the Middle East and result in "the biggest threat to non-proliferation efforts since the Cuban missile crisis."

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed spoke about the Iranian threat with a great sense of urgency in his March 2006 meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary Welch. Strongly favoring taking action against Iran and its president sooner rather than later, he said "I believe this guy is going to take us to war. ... It's a matter of time," adding that action against Iran and President Ahmedinejad should be taken within one year's time and that was unwilling to wait much longer. "Personally, I cannot risk it with a guy like Ahmedinejad. He is young and aggressive."

A diplomatic report states that while the Crown Prince "wasn't suggesting that the first option was ‘bombing’ Iran,” he still felt “They have to be dealt with before they do something tragic.” Three years later he would remark that "Ahmadinejad is Hitler."

Appearing convinced that it was only a matter of time before Israel or the U.S. would strike Iranian nuclear facility targets, Mohammed bin Zayed asked Lt. Gen. Dunn whether it would be possible for anyone to "take out" all locations of concern in Iran via air power. When Lt. Gen. Dunn voiced doubt that this would be possible given the dispersed locations, the Crown Prince explained "Then it will take ground forces!"

The Crown Prince also said that he did not think it was necessary to wait for all Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to agree before proceeding with any plans against Iran: "Whoever is interested in getting on board ship should be encouraged. I don't think it's logical or smart to wait for everyone to get involved so we can sail. ... If another GCC member believes it's not right, that's his choice." Another cable notes that while trust exists between the U.S. and the UAE, the rest of the GCC had continuing concerns. "Your problem today is to fix your relations with the GCC, quickly. A few countries in the region are already dealing with Iran as if they had the bomb."

Nonetheless, the documents show that UAE officials are reluctant to take actions that could anger Iran and compromise their extensive trading relationship, stating that they should be a "very last resort." "If you can solve something without involving the UAE, please do so."

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