Terrorism Weekly: A Plot for Christmas

“Yes, Virginia, there is a terrorism threat.”

Whether on the "left" or "right", the British media love a good terrorism plot. The timing of this one, in the notoriously slow period just before Christmas made it even more enthralling --- the same way that the Pakistani student bomb plot during the Easter break of 2009 similarly grabbed the headlines before turning out, for various reasons, to be a damp squib.

So for the last few days we have been treated to repeated stories about the arrest of 12 men for an alleged bomb plot. Note the word “alleged” in the previous sentence, for it is one that does not often appear in the assured British media when it comes to reporting terrorism. In the current example, the news has gone beyond noting g the arrests of the men to listing their alleged targets: from Big Ben to Westminster Abbey to the London Stock Exchange to the American Embassy, from celebrities to pubs and restaurants.

The British media  know these “truths” because details have been leaked to them by those connected to the case. At one time, there may have been concern about such details jeopardizing the chance of the accused getting a fair trial. but this is now by a gluttonous 24-hour-a-day media culture needing to get something it can publish on television, on the Web, or in newspapers.

This is not to say that there isn’t substance to this case, would fit with the pattern of terrorism that has developed after the July 2005 attack on London. The plots have shifted from the well-organized plan for 9-11 to small-scale attacks carried out by small groups or individuals, often operating with limited or no training. The potential level of casualties is limited, but so are the opportunities for the authorities to catch the plotters --- except for the amateurish nature of the schemes (July 2005 being the exception) which leads those involved to trip themselves up.

There is a threat in this particular plot, although I expect it will turn out to have been more aspirational than operational. However, there is a long overdue need for scepticism on the part of the British media in its reporting.

Already, three of the 12 men arrested have been released without being charged. That 25% rate is  low compared to the releases between 11 September 2001 and 31 March 2007, in which 54.5% of those detained were freed without charge. Only 10.7% were charged with a terrorism offence and about 4% were convicted.

The terrorism conviction rate has improved since then, with more precision and expertise in investigations and prosecutions. It now stands at 13% between 2001 and 2009. These results, do not mean that the British media should turn off its powers of judgement . The fundamental principle of innocent until proven guilty still applies, even to alleged terrorists.

Steve Hewitt is Senior Lecturer in American and Canadian Studies at the University of Birmingham and author of Snitch: A History of the Modern Intelligence Informer and The British War on Terror: Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism on the Home Front since 9/11