Iran Analysis: Is Rafsanjani Ready for a Fight?

UPDATE 1725 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says "the file remains open" in the case of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son. Iranian authorities have threatened to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who currently lives in London, if he returns to Iran.

UPDATE 1120 GMT: Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts was noted by Reuters yesterday, but it is Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post who goes high-profile with its significance:

An influential former Iranian president on Tuesday criticized the government in unusually blunt terms, saying that it is not taking U.S.-led sanctions seriously enough and that Iran could become a "dictatorship."

The remarks by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani represent a rebuke of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, though Rafsanjani did not mention him by name. Rafsanjani was also quoted by the semi-official Iranian Labor News Agency as indirectly saying that the government is not adhering to the Islamic Republic's laws.

Ahmadinejad and his supporters have been under increasing pressure from multiple power centers in Iran.

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Raffers is back. Possibly.

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani used the bi-annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts, which he heads, to put out a rather pointed challenge to the Government yesterday.

So President Ahmadinejad thinks he can wave away sanctions as a "used hanky"? Not so fast, said Rafsanjani: "Throughout the revolution, we never had so many sanctions (imposed on Iran) and I am calling on you and all officials to take the sanctions seriously and not as jokes....Over the past 30 years we had a war and military threats, but never have we seen such arrogance to plan a calculated assault against us."

Sure, that's a headline slap at "the West", but it's also the signal of a lack of confidence in both the President's politics and his skills at managing the economy.

And Raffers wasn't finished: he warned of "rogue elements" poisoning the country. Once again, the casual observer could read that as striking a pose against the enemy of sedition, but a shrewder reading is that the former President was saying the enemy is inside. Of course, Rafsanjani was not going to name names --- the Revolutionary Guard? other security forces? Ahmadinejad's advisors? --- but his eyes were not fixed on a Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi.

Then Rafsanjani, who also heads Iran's Expediency Council, put it all together. You want to see the guy who upholds Iran's system and the Supreme Leader? Well, here I am. You want to find the guy who is risking that system and the well-being of Ayatollah Khamenei? Well....

We cannot claim to be followers of the Leader yet refuse to implement those policies issued by the leader....The obstinate group that exists is like poison for the country....Leadership is a holy position and he [the Supreme Leader] has his eyes on everything and will intervene should there be a dead-end and a need....[Those who claim to be his supporters] do what they want and then hold the Leader responsible and duck when fires are shot at the Leader.

So, is Rafsanjani ready to rumble?

We wrote last week, based on sources in Iran, of Rafsanjani's manoeuvring --- in a face-to-face with the Supreme Leader, in discussions with his Karzgozaran party, and in meetings with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- against Ahmadinejad's perceived quest for power.

At the same time, we have heard these stories and we have listened to Rafsanjani's statements for months. The fact remains that, after his July 2009 Friday Prayer which was seen as public convergence with the opposition's challenge to Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani has not risked open confrontation. Whether that is because of the threats to his family, because he is unsure of with whom he is allied, or because the former President worries that he cannot win....well, that's up to the observer.

I don't think we're at the point where Rafsanjani, in his coded speeches, has become The Old Boy Who Cried Wolf, losing all effect. At the same time, he is no longer a King-maker or a President-breaker in Iranian politics. He needs others to join the drive against Ahmadinejad.

So take yesterday's statement not just as one for the Supreme Leader --- "Trust me, it's not you that I'm after" --- or for the Iranian public --- "You really believe in the guy who supposedly won that disputed election? Believe in him with your economy?"

It's also one for the Larijanis and their allies inside and outside Iran's Parliament. Are they ready for a fight?