Middle East Special Analysis: The Israel-Syria-Palestine Triangle

Washington’s “Wise” Plan?

As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”

What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".  

As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."

The London-based Arabic-language al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Thursday that Clinton has suggested a compromise, with Israel prolonging  the settlement freeze by three months and the time used by both parties to reach an agreement on border issues. The newspaper claims that Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has already accepted this offer, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to give an answer.

If these claims are true, then the PA can re-label the Israeli step as a concession and a very good opportunity to move to core issues. 

Syrian-Israeli Talks?

To strengthen Ramallah’s hand at the negotiation table  and to give a regional dimension for the Israel-Palestine talks, the Obama Administration is bringing in another strategy: Israeli-Syrian talks. These would serve both as a back-up measure to prevent radicalism and as an implicit pressure on both the Palestinians and Israelis. 

US envoy Mitchell confirmed at a press conference in Jerusalem on Wednesday that the US is making intense efforts to restart negotiations between West Jerusalem and Damascus. He said his deputy, Fred Hof, had recently been met with senior government officials in Syria.

Mitchell then arrived in Beirut late Thursday after talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem in Damascus. Mitchell said that Washington wanted a comprehensive resolution of the Middle East conflict that included peace between Israel and Lebanon and between Israel and Syria.

But does the US strategy really shift both the regional dynamic and the Israel-Palestine state of play? Damascus will re-still its core argument: “Peace based on current international treaties which put no conditions on Syria but place responsibilities on Israel”. The state-run Syrian Arab News Agency SANA has already described the U.S.-led peace efforts as "a waste of time" and a vehicle "to sell off Palestinian rights". It claimed Assad said to Mitchell, "Peace cannot last unless it restores full rights to their owners in accordance with international resolutions." 

And Others?

What about Turkish-Israeli relations? Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reiterated Wednesday that Ankara will do everything in its power to achieve peace between Israel and Syria.  There is no outcry in Turkey over Israel’s recent responses to rocket attacks from Gaza. In contrast, Israeli Foreign Ministry Director-General Yossi Gal stated on Wednesday that May's Freedom Flotilla clash still has serious consequences for the relationship between Ankara and West Jerusalem.

Last week, France's Middle East envoy, Jean-Claude Cousseran, a former French ambassador to Damascus, met Assad. Convincing Syria to accept France as the lead mediator in negotiations with Israel may not be on Damascus’s agenda for the time being, given its strategic relations with Ankara, but Cousseran's visit shows actors beyond the region are watching the game closely. And any failure in that game, undermining Washington’s power further in the region, may be seized upon by others who are currently on the sidelines.