The Latest from Iran (25 September): A Squeeze, a Meeting, and a Nuclear Signal

1115 GMT: Human Rights Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports 1952 cases of rights violations in the last month, including firings, intimidation, and detentions.

1100 GMT: Economy Watch. The Iranian Labor News Agency offers the frank observation, "Some Iranian officials recently confirmed the existence of Mafia [organised crime] in the country’s import market. However the [extent of the] economic monopoly...still remains unknown."

Iranian officials have not announced the names of the "monopolists" but the report says "political activists" presume they are "connected with high powers". 

0650 GMT: And in Tehran. But will the Iranian political establishment back Ahmadinejad as he presses for the renewed talks on uranium enrichment? 

The heavyweights have yet to speak, but at Tehran Friday Prayers, Ayatollah Kazem Seddiqi supported the President's remarks "as a gift granted to this nation by God".

And Hamidreza Taraghi, a leading member of the conservative Motalefeh Party offered this endorsement:

The president's speech must be considered successful since it reached the desired objectives of the Islamic Republic. Also it should be added that the criticism of the Western world along with invitation to their leaders for negotiation and debate is not contradictory. Invitation to debate reflects the Islamic Republic's power and ability for solving global problems. Debate and negotiation can occur along with the current undesirable relations and in effect be a kind of war within the frame of diplomatic negotiations. Hence debate with the leaders of the Western does not require the establishment of good relations between Iran and the West.

0635 GMT: Speaking of President Obama's interview with BBC Persian, footage has been posted, beginning with his reaction to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's implication at the UN of a US-led conspiracy behind the attacks of 11 September 2001.

0620 GMT: More Signals? Tehran says Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki met his British counterpart William Hague in New York, discussing the nuclear issue, Afghanistan and Iraq, and human rights.

The Iranian statement put out Mottaki's line, "[Possessing a] nuclear fuel cycle is the inalienable right of NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) signatory states," and quoted Hague, "Britain does not want to be presented as anenemy of Iran and is keen on improving relations with the Islamic republic." 

Press TV adds another marker of a push for talks with the framing of President Obama's Friday interview on BBC Persian television, "US Admits Futility of Sanctions".

The implication is clear: since sanctions haven't worked, Washington will be pushed back into discussions. The article continues, "Obama made the remarks...after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tehran was open to talks on its nuclear program."

0545 GMT: We'll be on limited service today, as EA staff celebrate a friend's wedding, but we think we have a few items of note.

Analyst Thomas Strouse, writing for Tehran Bureau, details the possible problem for Iran with declining exports of its crude oil, for example, in the Asian market:

Among China's top 14 suppliers in 2010, Iran is the only one with reduced oil sales compared to the first eight months of 2009. Iran has lost market share due to increased Chinese imports from Saudi Arabia and Angola, as well as non-OPEC members Russia, Oman, and Sudan....Angola and Saudi Arabia have each accounted for 18 percent of China's oil imports in 2010, while Iran has accounted for around 8 percent. In previous years, the respective market shares of China's top three suppliers have tended to be much closer to equal.

Strouse adds that Japan's imports of Iranian oil have fallen 14 percent.

Some analysts believe the drop is due primarily to pricing, with Iran maintaining a relatively high cost for its supplies, rather than the international effort at economic pressure on Tehran. Still, combined with Iran's difficulties in importing gasoline for its domestic market,  this is a squeeze worth watching.

Meanwhile, in New York, President Ahmadinejad maintained his diplomatic offensive, meeting Sarah Shourd, the US hiker recently released from 14 months of detention in Iran. 

Shourd said afterwards that the meeting was "a very positive step in the right direction", as she sought the release of her fiance Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal, who were also detained along the Iran-Iraq border in July 2009: "For me to talk to the president is something I've waited for a long time, so it's a good feeling to tell my story directly and I'm hoping it'll make a difference for Shane and Josh." '

But the most striking development came at Ahmadinejad's press conference, as the President gave the clearest signal this year of a desire to re-open talks with the US and other powers on Iran's uranium enrichment.

Ahmadinejad indicated that Tehran could suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20%, a condition set by Washington and the other "5+1" powers (Russia, China, UK, France, Germany) for discussions to proceed. Referring to Iran's decision to produce enriched fuel for medical isotopes from the Tehran Research Reactor, he said, "We were not interested to enrich to 20 percent. They [the US and its allies] politicized the issue. We were forced to do it to support the patients. We will consider halting [20 percent] uranium enrichment whenever nuclear fuel is provided to us." 

Ahmadinejad later reiterated, "We are ready for talks. The doors are open for talks, within the framework of justice and respect."

The President's declaration is being featured by Iranian state media.