Egypt Feature: Grumbles About Mubarak, But What to Do?

An interesting article in the high-profile newspaper Al Masry Al Youm, which stakes out its position in the opening paragraph:

After 30 years of President Hosni Mubarak's ultra-cautious rule, some of Egypt's 79 million people feel change is overdue --- even his claim to be the guarantor of stability has looked shaky since a January 1 attack on Christians.

Analyst Issandr el Amerani declared, "The biggest risk is fragmentation and rivalry within the ruling system, under the nominal leadership of an increasingly old Mubarak, like Tunisia in the 1980s under the late President Habib Bourguiba." 

The article criticises both a Mubarak campaign for re-election in 2011 and a continuation of his policies:

[These would] keep alive uncertainty over who will eventually succeed him and defer any major shake-up in the way Egypt is governed, with the focus remaining on security, along with liberal economic policies aimed at high growth.

This well-tried authoritarian formula may satisfy investors impressed by Egypt's lively performance since economic reforms began in earnest in 2004, but not everyone is convinced it can contain accumulating tensions in the most populous Arab nation.

Specifically claiming that the 1 January bombing outside an Alexandria church, killing at least 23 people, "blew a hole in an official myth that harmony reigns between majority Muslims and Christian Copts", Al Masry Al Youm derides the Government's claim of "security": "With conservative Islamic trends growing more pervasive in society, [it] has failed to punish the perpetrators of previous attacks on Copts or redress Coptic complaints about job discrimination and constraints on church building."

And then there are the socio-economic issues: "The population is growing 2 percent a year and has a "youth bulge", with some 60 percent under 30 years old. Nine out of 10 jobless Egyptians are in this age group. About 40 percent of citizens live on less than $2 a day and a third are illiterate."

But what is to done? The article has no suggestions --- "it is not clear what might upset the political inertia" --- and another development points to the lack of apparent alternatives, at least within the established political structure.

Opposition parties are caught up in a debate over a call by Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and leading figure in the National Alliance for Change, for a boycott of the 2011 Presidential election.

The Wafd Party has declared, “[The boycott] would bury the opposition parties alive,” while the Tagammu Party is still deliberating. Its head, Refaat al-Saeed, said, “We have total respect for ElBaradei. But this doesn’t mean we will follow him blindly."

In contrast, Nasserist Party Vice President Ahmed al-Gammal asserts that ElBaradei’s call "makes sense" given that "the last parliamentary elections were rigged."

So, as Al Masry Al Youm notes that "few Egyptians expect change to come through the ballot box" and "most no longer bother to vote", the article concludes:

Restive Egyptians may have to wait a bit longer [for an alternative to Mubarak]....Egypt may be ready for change. Just don't hold your breath.