Tunisia Analysis: Battles on the Street, Bigger Battles for A Government

The situation in Tunisian cities after the overnight curfew is reportedly quieter this morning, but much of the media is still focusing on the gun battles on the streets, especially in Tunis, on Sunday. 

That's understandable. The clashes --- mainly between the Army and elements of the former regime of President Zine El Abedine Bin Ali --- occurred in high-profile locations: outside a party headquarters, near the Presidential Palace, and near the airport. Reporters and cameramen in hotels in central Tunis witnessed and recorded the events, as security came to their doors telling them to close windows so they would not be struck by gunfire. Video footage was dramatic and sometimes surreal, as in the case of the captured foreigners who were either mercenaries or Sweden tourists, on a hunting trip for wild boar, in the wrong place at the wrong time.

At the moment, however, these appear to be the dying thrashes of an ousted regime, with Ben Ali's security details scrambling for their lives. With the Army backing the attempt to form a new Government and standing against any return of the former President, this front of the conflict could soon be wound up.

But there is a much larger battle going on, away from the streets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi declared, "Tomorrow we will announce the new government which will open a new page in the history of Tunisia." 

The practical steps behind that flourish are that a coalition has been agreed, with former opposition factions such as the Democratic Progressive Party and the Democratic Forum for Labour and Freedoms each getting one post. "Technocrats" are likely to retain their posts, and there will be representatives from trade unions and lawyers' groups.

Is that enough for legitimacy? Two immediate issues emerge.

The first is whether this Government will be distinct enough not to be seen as the old regime with a new coat. News circulated that Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD), which has been the only party to rule Tunisia since independence in 1956, would not have a minister in the Cabinet. However, Ghannouchi is an RCD member, as is President Fuad Mbazaa. There were later reports that the current Foreign Minister, Kamel Morjane, and the Minister of Interior, Ahmed Friaa, who was put in place days before Ben Ali fell, will retain their positions.

The immediate steps after Ben Ali's downfall, with Ghannouchi initially saying he was in charge, caused rumbles about politics and the Constitution. Within hours, the Presidency was given to Mbazaa, but that did not assuage concerns that the RCD might still be trying to maintain its grip on power. There were reports and some video evidence on Sunday (see separate entry) of rallies contesting the political process.

The second issue, and one that might deal with the first concern, is whether the Cabinet will be seen as representative of all parties and opinions. Some prominent opposition groups, such as the Communists and the "Islamist" party al-Nahda, headed by prominent exile Rached Ghannouchi, were not included in the coalition talks. Ghannouchi has said he will return to Tunisia soon, and that could add another element to the political discussions.

The snap response to the two concerns is that both of them will be met with the promise to adhere to Tunisia's Constitution and hold elections within 60 days. Two months, however, is a long time in politics, especially when expectations have been raised by the collapse of Ben Ali's regime.

In other words, Act 1 of this drama may be near its close. Act 2 has already begun.