The Latest from Iran (19 January): Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei?

2110 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei. This may not be entirely accurate reporting, but it does bring us full circle with the updates.

The Twitter account "M_Ahmadinejad" reports, "Ayatollah seems really depressed today: he's been locked in his room playing Carole King records all morning."

1835 GMT: Curtain Down. The Iranian theatre and art community has criticised the shutdown by Iranian authorities of a Tehran production of Hedda Gabler, reported in last week's updates.

The House of Theatre and Association of Drama Actors described the ban as illegal, since the production had an official licence ifrom the Supervision and Evaluation Council.

The play was closed after allegations that it promoted “vulgarity and hedonism". Director Vahid Rahbani and members of the crew were summoned to the Tehran Prosecutor’s office “to provide clarification”.

1820 GMT: AFP picks up on the news, reported and analysed in Tuesday's updates, that Ahmadinejad's close aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is expressing opposition to the six-year sentence and 20-year ban on work imposed on film director Jafar Panahi: "It is the judiciary which has passed the sentence and it is not the position of the government and the president. We do not approve that Jafar Panahi cannot work for a long time based on this sentence."

The article does not consider, however, why the President's Chief of Staff would be expressing open opposition.

1815 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Earlier today (1105 GMT) we reported on a letter signed by 963 Amir Kabir University students in support of detained activist Majid Tavakoli. Banooye Sabz has provided an English translation of the letter, which concludes:

We request all student organizations and the beloved students across our nation and around the globe to condemn the injustices against Majid Tavakoli and his honorable family.

We are all Majid Tavakoli. We feel Majid's pain and will continue to be his voice.

Iran-Iraq war veteran Amir Aboutalebi, arrested in December 2009 and held for six months, has returned to Evin Prison to serve his four-year sentence.

Aboutalebi is a close friend of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Chief of Staff, Alireza Beheshti.

Postgraduate student Babak Dashab, has also returned to Evin to serve a five-year sentence, allegedly imposed because he was filmed throwing a piece of wood into a fire set to reduce the effects of tear gas.

1520 GMT: Propaganda Day Not-So-Special. Nuclear talks are near. The Iranian military test-fires "an anti-aircraft missile near a nuclear site". The Associated Press reports it, "The test appeared to be designed to show Iran's resolve to defend its nuclear sites."

1440 GMT: Noam Chomsky has issued a video appeal on behalf of the detained US hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, held in Iran since July 2009.

Chomsky is very highly regarded in Iran, both for his work in linguistics and for his writing on US foreign policy.

1335 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? On "Propaganda and Denial" Day, a special alert....

Press TV passes along the press release from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's office of his speech today in Yazd in central Iran. The President warned the US, Israel, and "some Western states" not to interfere in Lebanon and "urged Tunisian politicians to exercise vigilance in face of foreign interference". He declared, "Today the Iranian nation is shining in the world and has brought its enemies to their knees."

1105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that almost 1000 students at Amir Kabir University have signed a letter in support of leading student activist Majid Tavakoli, imprisoned for 8 1/2 years.

1100 GMT: Security and Political Prisoners. German sources say that the participation of a senior Iranian representative in February's Munich Security Conference depends on concessions from Tehran in the case of detained German journalists Marcus Hellwig and Jens Koch.

The Security Conference is the world's most important forum for discussing issues of security and defense policy. In addition to recurrent topics such as the relationship between NATO and Russia or the Afghanistan mission, this year's meeting will also consider cyber-attacks and the impact of the financial and economic crisis on security policy.

Hellwig and Koch, who work for Bild am Sonntag, have been in prison since October. They were seized as they were interviewing the son and lawyer of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery.

1035 GMT: Elections Watch. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has announced the first party, Mardomsalari, to participate in Parliamentary elections next year, declaring, "Let the people decide."

Kavakebian's move is a challenge not only to the Government but to former President Mohammad Khatami, who had called for the satisfaction of three conditions --- release of political prisoners, adherence to the Constitution,and assurances of a free campaign and ballot --- before participating in elections.

1015 GMT: Internet Watch. Google has announced that Google Earth, the Chrome browser, and the photo service Picasa will soon be available for download in Iran.

No indication yet whether Iranian authorities will block the services.

0957 GMT: Nuke Propaganda. In advance of this week's nuclear talks, Iran's experts are playing Pick Your Enemy. Professor Younes Nourbakhsh says Germany, influenced by Israel and the US, is the leader of sanctions against Tehran. Professor Pirouz Izadi goes for France as "the bad policeman". Iran's representative at UNESCO, Mohammed Reza Saeedabadi asserts that Britain has followed a carrot-and-stick policy to reduce Iran's room for manoeuvre.

0955 GMT: Revenue Watch. President Ahmadinejad has criticised and blocked payment of 20% of oil income to national reserve funds.

0950 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Representatives from Iran's private sector have asked for a more gradual increase in energy prices.

The withdrawal of subsidies from mid-December threatens price rises of several hundred percent for oil, natural gas, and electricity. The Government has re-instituted partial subsidies on gasoline and in some sectors, such as agriculture.

0940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Arabgol, a construction worker, has been sentenced to six years in prison for assembly and collusion and for rebellion.

Arabgol spent six months in detention before release on $100,000 bail in July.

0800 GMT: Since our theme today is Propaganda and Denial (see separate analysis), we might as well start the updates by picking up on the chatter of a contest between President and Supreme Leader.

Tuesday's feature on "Life Goes On in Tehran" had this far-from-normal line: "Many people think that there is a good chance the Khamenei and Ahmadinejad factions will face off in the coming year or two." And Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah, in the opposition outlet Rooz Online, was pressing the theme as well: 

Through their separate remarks two days ago, Jaafar Shajooni, a cleric supporting Ahmadinejad’s administration, and Ali Motahari, a principlist member of the Majlis critical of the administration, revealed the existence of differences between Iran’s leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the head of the tenth administration, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on current issues facing the country.

The evidence is a bit thin. Motahari is pressing his own campaign against Ahmadinejad, so he will naturally put out the line of the Supreme Leader's displeasure. And Shajooni's comments were more of a prompt to Khamenei to stand up against the President's "disregard of the views of clerics" rather than a revelation that the Supreme Leader was already in conflict with Ahmadinejad.

More significant may be the claims of Yazdanpanah about the Supreme Leader's lengthy trip to Qom in October. On the 9th day of the visit, Khamenei had a special meeting with conservative clerics. Yazdanpanah claims that, in his remarks, the Supreme Leader claims that some in the establishment "wanted to install a second authority". He then got specific, claiming that Ahmadinejad  "really listens to my words" but his Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, "made a mistake". He assured, "Mashai talks a lot, but he wouldn't do anything against velayat [clerical supremacy]."

My opinion is still that this is more of a situation of the Supreme Leader carrying out a balancing act. He has supported the President at key points, not only in the contest with reformists but in challenges from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, senior clerics, and conservatives in Parliament. At the same time, he is keeping an eye on Ahmadinejad's extension of Presidential power. And Rahim-Mashai's presence, both as an advisor and as a potential candidate for President in 2013, is always an issue.

More on this in an analysis very soon....