Tunisia Snap Analysis: General Ammar's Message to Protesters (and the Government)

Attention may shift to Egypt today, as protestors try to turn Police Day into a "day of revolution against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment".

But in Tunisia, there continue to be dramatic developments. Amidst chatter that the interim Government would be replaced by a "council of wise men" to give the country a semblance of authority before March elections, the head of the Army, Rachid Ammar, suddenly appeared before protesters outside the Prime Minister's office (see Monday's updates).

Ammar's message was a request to the thousands of demonstrators and a warning to the politicians. He asked those assembled to finish their protest and allow a bit of space for discussions. And his declaration that the Army supported the people's revolution and would uphold the Constitution sent out the message to those inside the Government buildings: get this sorted now.

Issandr El Amrani offers this assessment:

This sends the message that a) no one in the interim government has the credibility to take charge of this kind of communication and b) that Ammar is the current strongman, the only person with credibility to address and calm angry crowds. It's a short hop from that to the idea that he should be the head of the transitional government, although at least for appearances' sake it might be better to remain in the background. But it remains a real possibility, considering that today he appears as the only person with the credibility to block criticism --- there simply is no other politician that would have the same instant authority, since he is seen as the man who deposed [former President] Ben Ali.

Things might move very fast from here. There's a good chance [Mohamed] Ghannouchi will no longer be PM [on  Tuesday] (with perhaps no immediate clarity on who else will remain), particularly since he's been clumsy with his communication, notably his mention last week that he had spoken to Ben Ali on the phone, which really freaked out a lot of people.

There are other questions raised today. I mentioned earlier the teachers' strike, which is a way for the UGTT [Tunisia's trade union confederation] to flex its muscles. You've also had strikes elsewhere --- in big retail notably — that are making industrialists nervous. You are seeing the beginning of demands for wage increases (which traditionally have been negotiated every three years in a government-brokered process). For now, with the absence of Islamists from the scene and much of the [former ruling party] RCD in hiding, trade unionists are emerging as the most organized political force, with a national network to rely on with ties to various leftist parties (notably the banned PCOT, or communists).

The national leadership of the UGTT is said to have been for decades in bed with the RCD, and fairly quietist. But the regional leadership and rank-and-file is a different mix of people, and they are putting pressure on the leadership --- which is the rational explanation for why UGTT leaders joined the interim government and the next day left it. The UGTT has jumped into the political vacuum and weakness of the legal opposition, but it's not really structured to be a political party and was for a long time a para-statal network. This ambiguity makes some uncomfortable.

One possibility is that Ammar is going ahead of UGTT / popular expectations by taking up the role of defender of the revolution --- thus responding to one of the main fears of the opposition and at least part of the UGTT, which is that the RCD will crawl back in place.