Egypt Analysis: A Beginner's Guide to "How Did It Come To This?" (Iskander)

Writing in World Politics Review, Elizabeth Iskander explains how the crisis developed. She concludes, "Even if these protests do not force Mubarak out, they have shattered the illusion of his credibility. Compromises or reforms will be unlikely to satisfy the protesters, which means that Egypt, and by extension the United States, will no longer be able to take the Egyptian people's passivity for granted":

The recent events in Tunisia have reverberated across the Middle East and North Africa, but they have found particular resonance in Egypt, where anger and frustration with President Hosni Mubarak's government has escalated considerably over the past year. The violence, corruption and media censorship that accompanied last November's parliamentary elections severely damaged the government's credibility. Exacerbating this general frustration is the expectation that Mubarak's son, Gamal, will succeed him and simply continue the status quo. 

In this week's demonstrations, which saw Jan. 25 renamed Youm al-Ghadab, or Day of Wrath, protestors have indeed directed some of their anger at the younger Mubarak, but the main target remains the president himself. Pictures and video footage show protestors shouting and spray-painting the slogan, Down with Hosni Mubarak, on walls and signs in central Cairo. Even a year ago, such open and public criticism of the president was a red line for Egyptian authorities. 

Despite Egypt's deep-seated economic, social and political difficulties, the strength and length of the protests seen across the country over the past three days seem to have taken the police, and the Egyptian people themselves, by surprise. Even the numerous self-immolation attempts -- in imitation of Tunisia's Mohamed Bouazizi -- that have occurred over the past week were not enough to convince many observers of Egyptians' commitment to stage such large demonstrations. 

Analysts often repeat the maxim that Egyptians only protest about the price of bread, in reference to the bread riots that broke out in 1977. Consequently, the Egyptian government has long been considered to be a stable regime. But in Egypt, the word for bread -- 'ayesh -- means life, because it represents the daily basic needs of the people. In this sense, Egyptians are once again demonstrating for bread.

But these protests have not appeared out of nowhere. To the contrary, there have been successive rounds of protests that have continued throughout the past couple of years. We can point to the large 2008 demonstration in al-Mahalla as the beginning of a raised level of activism and a direct indication that the Egyptian street would not remain quiet forever. The campaign of Mohamed ElBaradei, who returned to Egypt last February and launched the Association for Change, is perhaps one link in the chain leading to these protests. While ElBaradei's campaign has not resulted in any concrete, practical changes, it broke a taboo by vocally expressing the need for change, shaking a new media-savvy generation from its political apathy. ElBaradei was out of the country when this week's demonstrations broke out, but he has returned to Egypt today.

The death in June 2010 of Khalid Mohamed Said at the hands of the police was another key event serving to break down taboos on public criticism of the government, thereby preparing the way for this week's expression of popular anger....

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