Iraq Analysis: The Return of Moqtada al-Sadr

Qassam Zein (AFP/Getty)On Wednesday, the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, having succeeded for seven years in evading assassination or capture by US forces and spending much of that time in Iran, returned to Iraq. He did so as the leader of a significant faction in Iraqi politics --- its 40 seats in Parliament are second amongst Shi'a parties, surpassed only by the supporters of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki --- and on the Iraqi streets.

In The New York Times, Anthony Shadid recounted the greetings of "Long Live the Leader!" as Sadr landed in Najaf, going to his home and then to prayers at the Shrine of Imam Ali. He observed:

Simply by setting foot in Iraq, the mercurial and enigmatic Mr. Sadr complicated the nation’s byzantine politics. He is the rare Iraqi figure who can compete in stature with Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, and the dealings between Mr. Maliki, the arch politician, and Mr. Sadr, the rabble-rousing cleric, may prove a compelling political drama in the year ahead. Mr. Sadr’s return certainly adds another challenge for the United States, given its fear of his movement’s influence and his steadfast opposition to American policies.

It is unlikely that the Government will now press charges against Sadr, stemming from the 2003 murder of cleric Sayyid Abdul Majid al-Khoei. In the nine-month contest to establish a Government after the March 2010 elections, Sadr reaped benefits from his eventual support of al-Maliki: hundreds of Sadrists released from prison, leadership of a province, positions in the security forces, and control of at least eight ministries.

So instead of the threat of prison or death, Sadr's future is dominated by  political projections. His former foes in the US State Department said on Thursday, "What happens with him going forward is a matter for him and the government of Iraq. It is not for us to be for or against any particular leader or party in Iraq." Former Assistant Secretary of State J. Scott Carpenter was more forthcoming: "There are two views about Moqtada Sadr. He is either trying to create a bastion for himself in the south of Iraq with his militia, like Hezbollah, or become part of the political process as a leader."

Iraqi politicians were more accommodating in their reactions. Khalid al-Assadi, Maliki's spokesman in the State of Law party, said, "The returning of Moqtada is a very normal thing because he is an Iraqi, and he is most welcome in his country. In the past, there were circumstances that prevented his coming. Now the situation is different."

Sunni MP Falah al-Naqib declared, "He should be here. It's better to have him here, where foreigners have less influence on him than if he stays in Iran or anywhere else." Kurdish legislator Mahoud Othman added:

It is a good thing to have him back in the country. Why not? He's part of the political process, so now we must wait and see what he says.

US forces may have tried to remove Sadr from the Iraqi scene, but the politics is now far beyond them, as the cleric tries to build on his position.

Next step? A "very important" speech in Najaf on Saturday.