Sudan Special: Today's Referendum for Secession by the South (Ezell)

Photo: Associated PressDarrell Ezell writes for EA:

Today voters in southern Sudan decide whether to secede from the north to form the world’s newest nation.

Ahead of the referendum, ethnic violence spurred by locals remains a grave concern. At last month’s summit, hosted by the Sudanese Government in Khartoum, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, concerned about the division of Sudan’s natural resources, met with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Southern Sudan’s leader, Salva Kiir. Focusing to a large extent on their national interests, Mubarak and Gaddafi inquired whether unity between north and south Sudan might be achieved even without complete fulfillment of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement/

Signed between the Government of Sudan and the People’s Liberation Movement of the south, the CPA ended the Second Sudanese Civil War. In addition to establishing a democratic government and setting out a protocol for a balance of wealth, power-sharing, and natural resources, a timetable was set for southern Sudan to vote on its independence from the north.

The cost leading to that agreement has been great. Since the onset of the second civil war in 1993, 2.5 million Sudanese have died and nearly five million have been displaced. The conflict in Darfur, beginning in 2003 between the southern rebels (SLM/Justice and Equality Movement), and the Sudanese government’s proxy militia (the Junjaweed), has often mimicked the Rwandan Genocide.  The international community misspent its time pondering a definition of genocide while innocent men were killed, women were systematically raped , and children were forced to become soldiers. While it is likely those in the south will opt to secede today, it is probable that acts of random violence will ensue.

In the uneasy climate of Sunday’s referendum, two underlying matters are at stake, which may prolong the process: hesitation by the Arab north to hand over control of natural resources to the predominantly African south and strained relations between the north's Messeriya and the south's Dinka-Ngok tribes in the Abyei district.

In a visit to the southern Sudanese city of Juba, President Bashir pledeged his support for secession. The real test is whether the north’s military and northern tribal leaders in the oil-rich region of Abyei will follow suit amidst the contest for resources.

The two most vital of these in the arid south --- beyond copper, gold, and diamonds --- are oil and water. Flowing north, the Nile River stretches from southern Sudan to the Mediterranean Sea above Egypt. Cairo has raised concerns the south’s control of the Nile’s water supply, and Khartoum insists it will not move forward if oil profits are not distributed equally. As experts have noted, while most of the country’s “oil is located in the southern most part of the district, both pipelines and ports are located in the north --- which calls for cooperation to assure economic co-dependence.

In recent weeks, both Khartoum and Juba’s military have positioned themselves along the border in preparation for post-referendum conflict. And then there is  the ongoing dispute between the Misseriya and the Dinka-Ngok tribal community over resident status in the Abyei district.

Both communities have been outspoken in recent years with claims of ownership of the Abyei district. Under the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, a separate referendum is set for people living in Abyei that gives them the right to vote to join the south, but  the Dinka-Ngok reject this, claiming they bear sole ownership of the land. Stoking fear, Misseriya leader Bishtina Mohammed Abdul Salam condemned the referendum stating, “if the Dinka-Ngok makes the decision to annex Abyei to the south, there will be an immediate war without any excuse.” Western onlookers should not take Bishtina’s words lightly, as sparks of violence erupted a few years ago after 3,000 protesters demanded the establishment of a commission to oversee the special Abyei referendum.

Assuring peace in Sudan this weekend will not be easy, but it is imperative to keep all parties satisfied. In an agenda including the great partition, power-sharing, and equal distribution of revenuesfrom natural resources, the hope is that both Khartoum and Juba have recognized that a bold, shrewd form of government-tribal reconciliation is essential to prevent an explosion of violence.