Iran 6-Point Analysis: Obama and the Regime Walk Tightropes Over the Plot

See also Iran Terror Special: What We Know, What We Don't Know
Iran Opinion: The Plot --- What the US Got Wrong
The Latest from Iran (14 October): The Plot and Beyond

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I have just watched the video of President Obama's statement, given yesterday after his meeting with the South Korean President, on Iran and the alleged plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador.

Noting both the President's words and his manner, I think James Miller nailed the key points in his snap analysis at the time. Consider his declaration, given with great deliberation, "What we can say is that there were individuals in the Iranian Government who were responsible for this plot", followed by this precise construction, "Even if at the highest levels there was not detailed operational knowledge, there has to be accountability with respect to anyone in the Iranian Government engaging in this activity."

1. Whether or not it is true (see the ongoing debate in Comments after our analyses yesterday), Obama believes that at least two individuals in the Qods Forces of Iran's Revolutionary Guards were behind the operation.

2. At the same, the President has no information which will allow him to say that anyone beyond those individuals --- including the Supreme Leader, the President, and other political and religious figures in the regime --- knew what was going on.

3. So the US approach is to call on the Supreme Leader and the President to admit that people within their system are responsible and to punish them up to the highest level of those with direct knowledge of the plot.

4. Conveniently, this fits the broader strategy of ramping up pressure on Tehran to weaken the economy and isolate it in the international community. That is why --- and I think this is an important point missed by many analysts --- the formal complaint filed in the New York court was matched by the Treasury announcement of sanctions on four individuals in the Revolutionary Guards, including the head, even three of those four were not named in the complaint.

5. This leads to an important conclusion which goes far beyond any assessment of the Plot. With this response, the US has thrown back the attempt by President Ahmadinejad to renew discussions on Iran's nuclear programme, expressed in a series of public signals in New York last month. 

For now, the Americans will be using stick, stick, and more stick not only over the nuclear issue --- which is no longer the leading symbol for US-Iran relations --- but over co-operation rather than political conflict in the region and beyond. If there is going to be any carrot of direct talks with Tehran, it will only follow the region's self-humbling with an admission of guilt for The Plot.

(None of this, by the way, says Washington fabricated The Plot to pursue this strategy. Indeed, I do not say the US Government --- given its belief that there was responsibility in Tehran for the assassination scheme --- is right or wrong to shut the door on Ahmadinejad. I am just saying This is What It Is.)

6. But, as Josh Shahryar pointed out yesterday, the Obama Administration may have made a big mistake in this big move. 

It lies not in the formal complaint but in the Treasury declaration of sanctions on the four officials of the Qods Force. It is one thing to name Gholam Shakuri, a relatively low-level officer, because he is cited in the complaint as the direct link in Tehran for the Iranian-American, Manssor Arbabsiar, who allegedly tried to arrange the assassination through a Mexican drug gang. It is another, however, to name a senior commander, Abdul Reza Shahlai, who is identified in the complaint only as "the cousin" of Arbabsiar.

And it is very much another to go all the way to the top of the Quds Force and name its head, Qassem Suleimani. I see nothing in the complaint which can establish Suleimani's knowledge. Unless the Justice Department is sitting on some stunning evidence that it will reveal in further court proceedings or --- equally likely --- a press conference, Obama's people overstepped the mark. They did so because they mixed up the political strategy of squeezing the top people in the regime with the legal process.

There will come a point, if the Iranian regime does not back down, that the Administration will have to "Put Up or Shut Up" over Suleimani. And if it cannot Put Up, then Tehran will turn what could have been a significant public-relations defeat in the international arena into a victory, presented at home and abroad --- forget the details, the headline is that the US makes false allegations to try and topple us.