Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad --- A Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?

This morning Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post offers a provocative interpretation of recent political events in Iran, "Ahmadinejad Goes on the Offensive against Clerical Opponents": 

For months, Iran’s clerical establishment and Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders have been trying to curb the powers of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In recent weeks, the president has fought back, using combative speeches and threats to reveal his opponents’ corruption in order to hold on to his job.

The tactics appear to be working, according to parliament members and analysts.

Erdbrink's attention to the ongoing political conflict is valuable. It is susceptible, however, to the "Pendulum Syndrome" (or for film/boxing fans, the "Rocky Phenomenon"), in which that conflict swings very far one way, then comes all the way back and beyond: "After a falling out in the spring with the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ahmadinejad’s position had appeared untenable", but now, in the words of  an opposition politician, "Ahmadinejad has returned like a phoenix rising from the ashes".

Both extremes try to escape the messy reality of the political ground in between. Yes, the President staged an 11-day "boycott" of his duties this spring, after his attempt to dismiss the Minister of Intelligence and take control of hte Ministry --- the traditional preserve of the Supreme Leader. Even then, however, Ahmadinejad was not in danger of removal from office. He was allowed to come back after his sulk, but with a clear line drawn on how far he could try to extend power.

And, while the threats to interrogate and impeach the President persist --- even today, there is another declaration of a move to his appearance before the Majlis --- but, at best, this will be a drawn-out process before Ahmadinejad ever has to face those who not only want to question him but to pronounce his political demise.

At the other extreme, it is not the case that the President has, Rocky-like, won by surprise knock-out. He is fighting back this month with his defiant speech (see our separate analysis) threatening to reveal damaging information on his opponents and specifically warning the judiciary not to go after his people. But this, contrary to the impression in Erdbrink's article, is not a new tactic. Ahmadinejad had declared, soon after his return from the boycott, a "red line" against any prosecution of his Ministers or inner circle.

I repeat the blunt assessment we made this summer: Ahmadinejad is not being threatened with eviction, he is being "contained" by opponents and, yes, by the Supreme Leader. Their first objective is to check the President's grab for power. Their second is to chip away at his authority, using their offics and media outlets to question his management and to approach that "red line" with claims about his nearest-and-dearest aides. Their third is to ensure that he does not anoint a successor. 

So the President can be allowed to serve out his term --- if he was to be removed, there is the tricky issue of who to put in his place --- provided he is kept in his box. That means the pressing date, and the politics geared towards it, is not 2013 but March 2012, when Parliamentary elections take place. 

If Ahmadinejad and his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, can arrange victories for their supporters in Parliamentary elections, then perhaps the President can not only pull a Houdini but try to ensure a legacy, both in the last year of his term and via the next occupant of his office.

Despite Erdbrink's proclamation, the immediate signals do not point to that outcome. The challenge of a pro-Ahmadinejad bloc for the elections has receded, with the Islamic Constancy Front --- set up this summer and including many supporters of the President --- appearing to bow to pressure and move towards the "unity committee" set up by conservatives and principlists to ensure the right people prevail in March. The Parliament may not ever get to interrogation, but the MPs who dislike Ahmadinejad will persist with their annoying petitions, as well as looking for Ministers to impeach. The Larijani brothers --- Ali as Speaker of Parliament, Sadegh at the head of the judiciary --- will deploy their forces and make their calculations: one moment, Ali will save the President's Minister from impeachment, but the next he will call Ahmadinejad an "indecent rascal"; Sadegh may not risk a public trial of a figure like Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, but he will ensure that prosecutors have the necessary files.

And the Supreme Leader? He remains at a public distance from the scrapping --- after all, it is unseemly for Ayatollah Khamenei to get his hands dirty with politics --- but his office continues to work with and through the judiciary, Parliament, the media, and other allies. There will be no repeat of the President's power play this spring.

Ahmadinejad may slip some of the immediate shackles. As we noted yesterday, he is no mug, with a tenacity and determination that has prevailed over many of his political foes. But he faces checks at every turn. His economic high-point of the subsidy cuts packages has quickly descended, amidst problems with the programme, wider economic tensions, and the $2.6 billion bank fraud. His play for renewed discussions with the US appears to be going nowhere fast (thanks to both the US and to his domestic opponents). And his political base is shrinking rather than than expanding.

The pendulum does not swing that far. Rocky does not throw a climactic punch. The Phoenix does not rise.