Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Which Story Leads in Cairo?

Protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo on Tuesday night

See also The Real Net Effect: Egypt, Dissent, and the #FreeMona Perfect Storm
Egypt Analysis: Assessing the Elections
Tuesday's Egypt LiveBlog: A Big Turnout and Some Glitches in the Elections
Syria (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Protest in the Heart of Damascus

---

2125 GMT: Josh Shahryar has done a great job wrapping up our Egypt coverage in the previous update, and we'll close the blog looking forward. By tomorrow, we should see the fuller results, and we'll watch as the nation, and the political parties, react. Suffice it to say, the Islamists did quite well, though with no single party likely to hold a majority, we'll most likely be looking at a coalition government. Then Egypt will have to learn the first lesson of Democracy - how to govern when not everyone agrees.

In Syria, we started by looking to Turkey, as new sanctions were announced today, but the big stories were closer to home. With tanks storming Dael, a mass-shooting in Idlib, and large student demonstrations in Aleppo, today was just another sign that this conflict is hardly isolated to Homs and Hama. Assad's problems are everywhere.

Which brings up the next point. Idlib has not seen violence like this in many weeks, though protests have steadily been growing there. Dael had zero military presence at the start of the day, and the army had to deploy dozens of tanks, armored vehicles, buses, and perhaps as many as 1000 soldiers to the city in order to commence a new crackdown. Aleppo, once untouchable, has seen protests of some sort nearly every day for the last week. Assad has problems, but he does not have forces everywhere he has problems, and even where he thinks he does not have problems he has problems.

As evidence of this, the LCCS has posted this video, reportedly showing the military bombardment of Rankous, north of Damascus. Two weeks ago we did not know where this town was, but since then we've seen an increased presence of protests, and now several days of bombardment:

And we've seen yet another crack in Assad's armor, as a large army unit defected today in Idlib. So even within Assad's forces, his trusted solution, he still has problems.

2023 GMT: So far, from the results that have been announced or leaked, it looks quite clear that the Islamist parties - FJP, Nour and Wasat - are going to end up winning a plurality, if not an overwhelming majority of the seats. In some cases, the only competition they have is each other. The 'liberal' parties are nowhere near them when it comes to winning seats.

The strongest force behind the Islamists at the moment seem to be the independents and followed by parties that are considered liberal by Egyptian standards. How this will effect the government formation is unclear as this is only the first round and there are two more rounds to be conducted. However, one thing looks clear - if the results of the next two rounds are similar, the Islamists will more likely than not be the largest partner in a coalition if any, or the outright rulers.

Ikhwan Web's twitter account tweets:

Ahead, #FJP: O. Ramadan/Cairo, Helwan Y. Bayoumi/Cairo,Misr elKadeema M. Mohamed, S. Abul Fotoh, & E. S. Ahmed/Alexandria

Individual tickets (فردي) #FJP won following seats: A. elShaer/Port Said S. Khashaba/Asyout E. Mokhtar/Cairo, Nasr City #EgyElections

1958 GMT: Evan Hill, on Storify, adds more details on the election results in Egypt:

- Fayoum:

"The FJP won 40 percent of the vote in Fayoum's first district, while the Salafi Nour Party won 30 percent. The remaining 30 percent was split among the Freedom Party, Wasat Party, Egyptian Bloc, Wafd Party and Revolution Continues alliance."

1945 GMT: By many accounts, the election is going smoothly in Egypt, but several journalists would tell a different story. According to the Journalists Syndicate, two reporters, Mustafa al-Shimy and Tawfik Shabaan, were arrested while photographing polling stations two days ago. Another journalist was injured by security forces:

Ramadan Moustafa Mohamed, a photographer with Turkish news agency al-Ikhlas, suffered a broken leg after a hit-and-run in Damietta while he was monitoring the electoral process.

1912 GMT: The LCCS provides this video, confirming part of the reports we've heard, that tanks have been deployed in Dael, Daraa:

The LCCS, and other sources, suggest that the military is still attacking the city, as gunfire and "heavy weapons" are still reported there.

1903 GMT: The Guardian has done a fantastic job in providing links to the latest news on the Egyptian election, including a link to a spreadsheet run by Al Jazeera's Evan Hill, where he is compiling the results. So far, it appears that the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party has won approximately 40% of the seats, though the results are only partially known and we will not know all the results until sometime tomorrow.

1835 GMT: Tommy Vietor, US National Security Council Spokesman, has released praising Turkey's announcement of sanctions against Syria:

The measures announced by the Turkish government today will undoubtedly increase the pressure on the Syrian regime, and we continue to call on other governments to join the chorus of condemnation and pressure against the Assad regime so that the peaceful and democratic aspirations of the Syrian people can be realized. President Obama has co-ordinated closely with Prime Minister Erdogan throughout the crisis in Syria and will continue to do so going forward.

1824 GMT: The LCCS has once again raised today's death toll to 19 civilians, including 10 people who have been killed in Idlib.

1724 GMT: This video, reportedly from Aleppo, shows the Syrian security forces arresting a protester and putting him on a bus, then trying to clear the path for the bus to leave:

1653 GMT: An activist points us to this video from Idlib, clearly showing a wall of protesters chanting while a wall of security forces, some on the rooftops, look on. This appears to be the same neighborhood that we've already posted two videos from, where as many as 8 have been killed, though we have yet to confirm this. In other words, this video gives us chills, because if this is the same neighborhood as the videos we've posted earlier, the defiant, yet peaceful, protesters are perhaps only minutes away from being fired upon:

1645 GMT: The LCCS reports that the death toll in Syria has risen to 16, "among them two women and two children.Eight of the martyrs were in Idlib, including two from Saraqeb; Six martyrs in Homs and two in Hama."

However, we've received multiple reports of casualties in Ma'arrat an Nouman, in Idlib province, and these reports have not yet been picked up by the LCCS. We'll keep you posted.

1635 GMT: The Organisation of the Islamic Cooperation, the world's largest Islamic organization, has released a statement on the crisis in Syria, rejecting international military involvement while calling for dialogue:

"We also refuse any military intervention and affirm our respect to Syria and its sovereignty... and welcome international and Arab efforts" to reach a solution, he told an emergency ministerial meeting of the pan-Islamic body.

But the OIC chief expressed frustration at the lack of a breakthrough to end the violence since March that the United Nations says killed more than 3,500 people, mostly civilians, in its first eight months.

"We have exhausted all our mechanisms and powers in our attempt to bridge the gap and end bloodshed" in Syria, said Ihsanoglu, urging ministers to "reach practical recommendations that would help achieve a compromising solution."

The gathering is being attended by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, and Ali Akbar Salehi, his counterpart from Iran which is a key regional ally of the regime in Damascus

At the end of the day, it's hard to see how the OIC meeting has contributed towards meeting the goal of bridging that gap.

1627 GMT: Activist Edward Dark shares two more videos, reportedly taken of a very significant protest at Aleppo University today:

1620 GMT: Syrian State TV, SANA, said today that the Syrian regime has released 912 prisoners who not "not have blood on their hands," the second large release in recent weeks. Earlier in the month the regime released 1700.

Missing from the Reuters report, however, is any analysis. The Syrian prisons are currently filled with political prisoners, and arrests are reported in almost every city almost every day. There may not be any more room in Syrian prisons, as prisoners who are released report harsh conditions, torture, and overcrowding.

1616 GMT: The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights also adds details of a new assault on the city of Dael, Daraa, where Syrian military tanks and armored personnel carriers supported ground troops in an assault on the city:

The town of Da’el in Daraa was shaken by heavy explosions today’s morning. An activist, who managed to leave the town, has told the Observatory that armoured vehicles have withdrawn and positioned at the town’s access points while almost 30 buses full of security members stormed the town and raided the houses. He added that there were heavy clashes between security members and groups of army defectors and there were two explosions targeted two buses belonging to the security forces. Meanwhile, the electricity power and landlines and cell phones lines are cut off since today’s dawn.

1612 GMT: The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights also confirms casualties in Idlib, adding that a 12-year-old boy and a woman are among the dead. They also post this video, reportedly another angle of the chaos in the streets:

1538 GMT: Activist Edward E. Dark reports, "there was a very large student protest at Aleppo university today."

1528 GMT: The LCCS reports that 14 people have been killed today in Syria, "among them two women and two children. Seven of the martyrs were in Idlib, including two from Saraqeb; Five martyrs in Homs and two in Hama."

The interesting update from the LCCS, however, is that we may have been spot on with our latest analysis of a video of a wounded civilian in Idlib, as the LCCS posts the name of a man who died in Idlib because he was not taken to the hospital fast enough:

Idleb : Jomaa Ibrahim Nasereddine was martyred today after he was not taken to the hospital in time since hospitals are surrounded by security forces. He arrived after a long time from his critical injury and he died after a while

1505 GMT: Josh Shahryar breaks down the latest developments from the election in Egypt:

- Cairo (Kasr el-Nil):

Contest here is tight between Egyptian Bloc's candidate and an independent. Again, no results yet.  

- Cairo (Heliopolis):

Preliminary results show independent candidate Amr Hamzawy has won a seat.

Cairo (Helwan):

In Helwan, Cairo's ninth constituency, FJP's list is currently winning.

- Assiut:

FJP's Sameer Kashaba has won an independent seat in the governorate.

In the first constituency there is going to be a run-off between FJP and Egyptian Bloc's candidates for the professionals' seat while for the workers' seat, there will be one between the Salafist Nour Party and an independent.

In the second constituency there will be a run-off between FJP and Nour Party's candidates for the professionals' seat, results indicate. There will be a run-off between FJP's candidate and an independent for the workers seat.

In the third constituency there's a three way competition between FJP, Nour Party and an independent candidate for the professionals' seat. FJP, Nour Party and another independent candidate are also vying for the worker's seat.

In the fourth constituency FJP, a former member of the ruling party and an independent are fighting to win the professionals' seat while Nour Party, an the independent Nefeesa Abd El-Aziz and another former NDP member are contesting the workers’ individual seat.

No results yet for the third and fourth constituencies.

- Kafr El-Sheikh:

In the first constituency Salafist Nour Party's candidate is leading the professionals' seat and the workers' seat. They are also in the lead in the second constituency in the list vote. FJP is leading the individual candidate vote.

- Port Said

FJP's candidate Akram El-Shaer has won the professionals' seat. A run-off will be held between the Egyptian Bloc candidate and the Salafist Nour Party's candidate.

FJP has won the party list vote, while Nour Party came second with another Islamist party, Wasat Party came in third. This means that Islamists will hold all the seats from the party list vote in the city.

- Luxor:

Egyptian Bloc's list is leading, following by FJP and Freedom Party.

- Red Sea Governorate:

The candidate lists of FJP and Egyptian Bloc are leading. There will be a run-off between FJP's candidate and an independent for the professionals' seat.

1458 GMT: According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, 7 government soldiers have been killed in the town of Dael, Daraa, in fighting with members of the Syrian Free Army:

"Two security force vehicles were blown up. Seven [troops] were killed," said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the observatory.

1419 GMT: Activist Alexander Page adds another video from Idlib, an important city in Syria that has come under attack from Assad's forces today. He notes that there was an anti-government protest that was fired on.

This video shows a wounded man whom the protesters couldn't immediately evacuate because the soldiers continued to pin down the protesters with live fire. Eventually, the protesters do evacuate the man, though it is unknown what condition he is in:

1408 GMT: While we've already posted video of an attack on anti-Saleh protests in Ibb, the AFP reports that opposition members have also been attacked in Taiz, Yemen's second largest city, as loyalist forces have resumed shelling the city:

"One person was killed and three others were wounded" in the shelling on Tuesday night, said a medical official on Wednesday.

The artillery shelling also destroyed nearly a dozen homes in Taiz, Yemen's second-largest city, residents said.

The attacks were mainly concentrated in the area surrounding Al-Huriya (Liberty) Square, the epicentre of anti-regime protests since January.

A security official in Taiz said the attacks targetted "militants from Al-Islah (reform opposition) party who have been deployed in residential areas across the city". - [AFP]

1347 GMT: Perhaps, then, it is not a coincidence that Idlib has seen a significant amount of fresh violence today. While 8 people have been killed so far today, according to the LCCS, most of those killed have been in the city of Idlib. The Guardian reports:

The worst violence appears to have occurred in the north west city of Idlib, according to the the Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria. It says five people were killed in the city when the security forces stormed Ibrahim Hanano Square.

One of those killed was a nine year old child, the LCCS said.

It also claim the security forces surrounded hospitals in the town to prevent those wounded from getting treatment.

They have also posted this video, reportedly shot in the city of Idlib:

1342 GMT: Turning to Syria, an EA correspondent summarizes this video, that a large and heavily armed unit has joined the Syrian Free Army today in Idlib. Perhaps 30 to 50 soldiers can be seen in the video.

1338 GMT: Now we have more indication of when we will know the election results. Al Jazeera producer Nadia Abou el-Magd reports that State TV has just announced that the results of independents running for election will be announced on Thursday.

This likely excludes results of party lists.

1326 GMT: Josh Shahryar will be providing updates on Egypt:

Ahram News provides their latest insight into how the vote counting is going:

In Helwan, Cairo's ninth constituency, which includes Helwan, El-Basateen, El-Maadi, El-Masara, El-Tabeen, and Tora districts the Freedom and Justice (FJP) candidate list is winning so far.

In second place is the candidate list of the Salafist Nour Party, and in third place the Egyptian Bloc, which includes the leftist Tagammu Party and the liberal Free Egyptians Party.

Competition remains tense between Nour Party candidate Ahmed El-Dory and the independent

Mustafa Bakry for one of the two individual seats. However, preliminary results show that Bakry is ahead by a small margin. As for the workers’ seat, Ramadan Omar, of the FJP is so far leading.

Preliminary results show that the candidate list of the Freedom and Justice Party and the Egyptian Bloc are leading in the Red Sea governorate. Independent Coptic candidate Sameer Hars, FJP member Mohamed Abdel Aziz and the Salafist Abdel Hak El Sebaey are leading in the battle for the individual seats.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood is claiming that it is currently the leading party in seats won so far in the first round of the elections, followed by the liberal Egyptian Bloc and the Salafist Nour Party.

1317 GMT: James Miller takes the liveblog, (follow him on Twitter) and Scott Lucas has provided him with two video clips from Yemen to start the day.

The first video is reportedly from today's protest in Taiz, Yemen's second largest city, where the people in the street are demanding the prosecution of the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and other high ranking officials. Under the Gulf Cooperation Council deal that Saleh signed last week, he would trade his power for immunity, something which is not sitting well with the opposition:

But the second video is far more dramatic. At a similar protest in Ibb, a car drives through the streets, shooting at the opposition, as people scatter in every direction:

1145 GMT: The Bahrain Center for Human Rights profiles artist Khalil Ebrahim Almadhoon, detained since 23 March and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

1139 GMT: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has presented a package of sanctions against the Syrian regime, including an embargo on the delivery of all weapons and military equipment, suspension of a cooperation agreement, freezing of Syrian government assets, a travel ban on top Syrian government officials, and a halt to relations with the Central Bank of Syria.

“Every bullet fired, every bombed mosque has eliminated the legitimacy of the Syrian leadership and has widened the gap between us,” Davutoğlu said. “Syria has squandered the last chance that it was given.” He claimed Damascus “has entered a vicious circle of violence....Syria must immediately cease using force against the people and [military] forces must immediately withdraw from cities.”

The Turkish measures follow similar sanctions adopted by the Arab League last weekend.

1135 GMT: An activist claims, "The Syrian currency hits a new record vs. the US dollar in the black market at 58.75 [to $1]."

1045 GMT: Claimed footage from the Bab ad-Dreeb section of Homs of the Syrian military on the streets:

0905 GMT: Reuters reports on the latest dispute among students at Manouba University near the Tunisian capital Tunis, as Hundreds of Islamists demanded segregated classes and the right for women to wear full-face veils.

Witnesses said fighting followed a protest by the Islamists, a day after they occupied building and keeping students and faculty inside.

0845 GMT: Dr Nabeel Hameed is one of three neurosurgeons in Bahrain, two of whom are suspended from duties. He was initally accused during the demonstrations of killing a protester by carrying out an unnecessary operation; he is still charged with participating in an "illegal gathering".

He reflects on the experience and the situation in Bahrain:

Dismissed employees, fired for involvement in political protests, demonstrate in front of the Ministry of Labor this morning:

Despite bad weather, protesters march in Mehaza in Bahrain on Tuesday night: "In the summer or under the rain, there's no escape for self determination":

0835 GMT: Omar Hasan, writing for AFP, surveys the rise of activism as "Youths Take Wealthy Kuwait into Arab Spring".

0815 GMT: In Syria, the pattern is one of a continuing crackdown, as James Miller documented in Tuesday's LiveBlog. There were raids in the northwest, in the Damascus suburbs, and in Daraa in the south --- activists claimed at least 12 people, including two children, were slain.

0745 GMT: Which narrative to pick from Egypt this morning? There is the story of a successful first stage in the Parliamentary elections, with some estimates of more than 70% turnout over Monday and Tuesday and relatively few reports of manipulation and violence. Jadaliyya, drawing from Al Masry Al Youm,  summarises early results. 

Then there is the narrative of the thousands who are protesting in Tahrir Square in Cairo and the toll of near-by violence. On Tuesday night, nearly 80 people were reportedly injured in clashes. 

Then there is the continuing tale of the wide-spread detention of activists. On Tuesday, reports swirled that prominent blogger Alaa Abd-El Fattah, who has been enduring a series of rolling 15-day imprisonments, had been charged with murder, or attempted murder, and terrorism. Those claims turned out to be incorrect: Abd-El Fattah will face trial for "demonstrating, inciting to demonstrate, assaulting military personnel, destroying public property, and stealing military weapons".

And one might build yet a supporting story of the bits of information that flow in --- for example, Ahram Online noted yesterday, only a week after security forces had injured hundreds, and possibly caused deaths, with the use of tear gas:

The Ministry of Interior has finally taken possession of a shipment of tear gas canisters, after customs employees initially refused to let it pass.

The new gas canisters have already been transported to the ministry's storerooms. 

Questioning of the employees who refused to let the shipment pass was cancelled as Mohamed El-Sayed, head of the Central Administration of Suez Customs, said he "reprimanded them off the record." 

A group of customs employees at the Suez port have revealed that the Egyptian Ministry of Interior is in the process of receiving 21 tons of tear gas from the US.