Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader is Looking for A Few Good Reformists

The occasion was the 40th day of the death of a Revolutionary Guard in an explosion at a military base on 12 November, but Gholam-Hossein Haddad Adel --- former Speaker of Parliament, linked to the Supreme Leader both in his politics and in the marriage of his daughter to Ayatollah Khamenei's son Mojtaba --- was speaking about forthcoming politics, specifically the vote for members of Parliament in March: "Reformists should know that the election is important. It is related not only to their political past but to their future too. " 

Haddad Adel's message may have sounded a bit of a threat --- if you don't participate, you are history --- but it was also an encouragement to the reformists, a minority in Parliament and under sustained pressure before and after the 2009 Presidential election. An EA correspondent, based in Iran, explains:

With the announcement of some reformists that they will not be active in the next election, a large number of people may not participate, especially youth, students, and intellectuals. The Supreme Leader's allies are worried that in this situation the supporters of President Ahmadinejad might win the majority of the Parliamentary seats. 

Pro-Supreme Leader principilists are trying to lower the votes of Ahmadinejad’s men. That's why they have started a propaganda campaign with the help of [State broadcaster] IRIB and some websites. This week Tabnak, Khabar Online, and even Fars have published "news" pushing this line.

For example, Khabar featured Haddad Adel's statement that there is a big gap between "us" and the President: “Our blood groups are different to Ahmadinejad’s." In Tabnak, the message was that Ahmadinejad never cooperates with the Parliament. 

But there's an obstacle to the Supreme Leader's approach --- the reformists may not co-operate. In particular, much attention is being paid to former President Mohammad Khatami. A year ago, Khatami set out three conditions for involvement in future elections: freedom for political prisoners; free and fair votes, including freedom of activity for political parties; and adherence to the Constitution. He is still maintaining a delicate balance --- on the one hand, he is saying that with the conditions unmet, reformists will not put forth candidates; on the other, he is stopping short of calling for a boycott in which people would withhold their votes.

The Supreme Leader's camp need to sway Khatami into supporting participation in March or, at least, refraining from any statement telling his supporters to stay home. The tactic this week has been to portray the former President as an insecure, hypocritical politician, both in Khabar and in Tabnak.

Haddad Adel's speech was followed by a statement on Tuesday from Morteza Nabavi, a leading figure in the Islamic Society of Engineers and the conservative Alliance of the Builders of Islamic Iran. Nabavi said that some principlists such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and key MP Ahmad Tavakoli did not accept Ahmadinejad as the President.

That is far from breaking news. What was more significant was Nabavi's declaration that it was best if reformists and the conservative Alliance collaborated in the next election for the sake of their political future.

On Wednesday, Seyed Kamal Sajadi, the spokesman of the Followers of the Imam and the Supreme Leader's Front, put threat and offer into the same package: "I believe [reformists] would like to participate in the next election but, before participating in the election, they should officially apologise to the Iranian nation, as the sedition [after the 2009 Presidential election] was created by them and this affected the Islamic Revolution's prestige."

Hossein Fadaee, the leader of the Devotees of the Islamic Revolution, took the same line. Warning initially that "the sedition current, Rafsanjani, and the system of global dominance is an ominous triangle that is trying to attack the Parliament election", he offered a way back: "Today, reformists are to think about their political existence. And the next election is an trial for them to show whether they are still part of the sedition current or not." Hojatoleslam Ahmad Saleh, the spokesman of the Military Clergy of Iran, MP Ayvas Heidarpour --- who set the condition of reformists separating from "sedition leaders" Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi for their redemption --- were also part of the chorus.

Ahmad Tavakoli --- one of the most important MPs, relative of Ali Larijani, and forthright critic of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- offered the summary in an interview with Mehr:  "Those reformists who are still loyal  to the Islamic Revolution must participate in the election, as there is a possible threat from the deviant current," the buzzwords for Ahmadinejad's men. 

The conflict between the Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad is far from new. Ayatollah Khamenei may have been the decisive force keeping the President in office after the disputed 2009 election, calling the unclear vote an Ahmadinejad victory within hours and, a week later, effectively setting loose security forces on those who did not agree. However, by this spring any alliance of mutual interest had turned into a power struggle --- see April's "5-Point Guide to Ahmadinejad v. Supreme Leader --- What Caused It, What It Means, and What Will Happen".

Last week, we posted "The Supreme Leader Is Worried --- Three Developments You Probably Don't Know", noting the despatch of senior figures to Mousavi, Khatami, and Hashemi Rafsanjani to call for their support of the March elections, the appeal to senior clerics for their public endorsement, and the directive from Ayatollah Khamenei's office to IRIB to put out damaging programmes about the "deviant current".

This week's further developments are political reinforcements for that campaign. "Politics make for strange bedfellows", I believe they say, and --- if only until President Ahmadinejad's entourage is evicted --- it appears the Supreme Leader is looking for a sleep-over with the reformists, even those who used to be part of the "sedition current".