Palestine Analysis: What Could Shift Hamas?

The United Nations Relief Works Agency has announced that unemployment in the Gaza strip has reached 45%. Monthly earnings in Gaza decreased by almost 10%, in real terms, between the first half of 2009 and the first half of 2010. UNRWA spokesperson Chris Guinness warned that without international intervention to halt the Israeli blockade of Gaza, the crisis could deepen substantially. 

As Facebook groups are calling for a 'revolution' in the Gaza Strip, Hamas's Interior Ministry Spokesman Ihab al-Ghussein told AFP late on Wednesday: "It makes no sense, this is little more than media hype. Gaza has already had a revolution --- what happened in 2007 was a real revolution against corruption."

Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority on Tuesday declared that local council elections would be hed on 9 July in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip. However, this election call was rejected by Hamas, and Palestinian Authority spokesman Ghassan Khatib said that the election would be held only in the West Bank if Hamas did not participate. 

Senior Hamas leader Mushir al-Masri said, "These elections are as illegal as the government of Salam Fayyad. We say no to elections before ending the current Palestinian split, because holding it under such circumstances would reinforce the split." 

What could make Hamas move forward to the reconciliation talks? Fatah concessions or the prospect"revolution" against Hamas in Gaza? The first option has not worked yet. As for the latter, could this current economic collapse trigger an uprising, in a very small and isolated piece of land where more than a million people live under Israeli occupation? Will those Gazans who do not support Fatah find enough reason to put up a challenge to Hamas?