The Latest from Iran (25 February): Whistling in the Dark

2315 GMT: A Call to March? Back from a break to wrap up with one piece of news --- an English translation of today's call by the opposition, "The Council for the Coordination of the Green Path of Hope", for more protests has been posted.

Following the warnings by the social and political organizations within the Green movement and in particular by the passionate reformist youth within the Green movement to the authoritarian government of Iran regarding the continued, illegal house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and their spouses, the Council for the Coordination of the Green Path of Hope in keeping with the legitimate demands of the nation of Iran, invites all freedom seeking citizens to protest the continued house arrest and imprisonment of the leaders of the Green Movement, this Tuesday, March 1st, 2011 [10 Esfand 1389], coinciding with the birthday of the great Mir Hossein of the Green Movement. The demonstrations will begin at 5:00pm and we will gather and march from Imam Hossein to Azadi Square [in Tehran] chanting "Ya Hossein....Mir Hossein" and "Ya Mehdi, Sheikh Medi", raising our voices to demand the release of our Green leaders. The demonstrations will also take place in the main squares across other major cities in Iran.

In the event that our voices are silenced and the illegal house arrest and imprisonment of the Green leaders continues, in addition to other methods [of civil disobedience] to be announced by the Council in its next statement, we are also calling upon all Green companions to participate in decentralized, nation-wide protest on Tuesday March 15th, 2011 [24 Esgand 1389] coinciding with ChaharShanbe Souri. During this undoubtedly difficult time, we ask all Green supporters to continue focusing on raising awareness [within our society] and to patiently endure the hardship and ill-treatment imposed upon us by the coup forces in power; hardships designed to continue the dire status quo and impose tyranny on the people of our nation. Together we will find a new path and better future for all Iranians, ensuring that our long traditions and the divine right throughout our history to be victorious and demand justice continues.

1700 GMT: The House Arrests. Families of political prisoners, condemning the "inhuman conditions" in which opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and their wives are being kept, have called for the lifting of house arrests. Noting the support they have received from Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard over the last 20 months, they said that her effective arrest was "intolerable".

1450 GMT: The House Arrests. In an interview with an Italian newspaper, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, offers an interesting explanation about the status of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi....

Mousavi and Karroubi are not under house arrest, even though they "have taken actions against the law, such as repeatedly organising unauthorized demonstrations, for which they could be prosecuted".

So if this is not house arrest? Boroujerdi continues, "They have an escort service."

1430 GMT: A Special Clerics Convention. Hamid Farokhnia reports from Tehran on the special two-day session of the Association of Theological Teachers of Qom Seminary.

Few details came out of the meeting, and a lot of Farokhnia's piece is speculative. However, there are some useful points.

The meeting put forth the current hard-line against opposition protests, "The clergy, these combatants of God and soldiers of Imam Mahdi....stating their utter repugnance with the seditionists [the Green Movement activists]....demand from the elite and the leaders an unambiguous and explicit repudiation of the American-Zionist sedition movement." Farokhnia goes further in his interpretation, seeing this as a challenge not only to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi but also Hashemi Rafsanjani, as he campaigns for re-election as head of the Assembly of Experts.

More substantial was the presence of certain figures, such as former Presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, who has generally kept a low profile during post-election political maneouvres. And Farokhnia ponders, though without a conclusive explanation, why no invitation was extended --- for the first time in five years --- to President Ahmadinejad.

1415 GMT: Today's Friday Prayer. In one of the few Friday Prayers today which has not been the scene of a protest, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani declared that uprisings in the Arab world show “the Muslim world has entered a phase of awakening and the Muslim Ummah has, in the true sense of the word, realized [the concepts of] prophecy and revelation."

In line with recent statements by the Supreme Leader, Emami Kashani tried to claim the uprisings as the legacy of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran: “Muslim communities have come to see the fact that they have arrived at nihilism and are [now] seeking the way founded by Imam Khomeini, and that is the path of awakening and movement....Muslims in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are fighting with their lives to achieve this goal.”

1235 GMT: The House Arrests. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has condemned the "cowardly" house arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Writing in Tehran Bureau, Muhammad Sahimi has called for "a worldwide campaign" to press for the release of the two opposition figures.

1230 GMT: The Minister of Intelligence's Show. More on last night's TV interview with Heydar Moslehi (see 0545 and 0905 GMT and our separate video and analysis)....

With Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi under house arrest, Moslehi took aim at two of their senior advisors, Ardeshir Amir Arjomand and Mojtaba Vahedi, who are pursuing next steps.

Moslehi accused Arjomand, who is in France, of having ties to the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. He accused Vahedi, who is in the US, of having ties to foreigners and telling opposition leaders “what stance to take and what to say".

1130 GMT: An EA reader e-mails from Tehran:

On Thursday afternoon, when we passed Vanak Sqauare on our way from Argentine Sqaure and up Vali Asr, the square was ringed with several hundred police and Basijis in full gear. We also had confirmed reports of a heavy presence in other key locations. The rumours circulating yesterday evening was that somebody speaking for Karroubi had requested people to be out on the street making silent statements by simply being outside and that two dates had been selected for further manifestations.

There also were rumours about people being seriusuly ill after being exposed to tear gas and that the tear gas had some kind of chemical agent creating more harm then normal tear gas. This is of course hard to verify, and could be just as well a rumour to make people more easily disperse when met with tear gas.

0940 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Aftab News, reviewing the proposed 2011 budget, has questioned the Government's official line of $40 per month in support payments to each Iranian to cover subsidy cuts. The website says the figure is about $27.

0930 GMT: Ahmadinejad and Larijani. Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, a senior aide to the President, has suggested to students that there should be a change of the head of Parliament --- currently Ali Larijani --- as the people "need the best choice".

Samareh Hashemi said no decisions had been taken about a candidate for President in the 2013 election.

0920 GMT: Parliament v. Cabinet. MP Abdolhossein Naseri says there are 41 signatories so far for an "istizah" --- Parliamentary questioning, which could lead to impeachment --- of Minister of Education Haji Babaei on 11 issues.

The Minister of Transportation, Hamid Behbehani, was forced out of office earlier this month, and the Minister of Energy, Majid Namjoo, is closed to being summoned by the Parliament.

0910 GMT: The Next Step? Former MP and prominent activist Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, now living in the US, explains the opposition plan for marches each Tuesday.

0905 GMT: The Minister of Intelligence's Performance. Kalemeh, linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, offers a range of reactions to last night's prime-time TV appearance by Heydar Moslehi, explaining the regime's response to the protests of 14 February and the non-protests of 20 February, including measures against Mousavi and Karroubi (see separate video and analysis).

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, offers a summary of the speech.

0835 GMT: Book Corner. Reuters picks up on a story we have been noting --- amidst subsidy cuts, rising prices, and a Government crack-down on writers and publishers, "Booksellers of Tehran Falling on Hard Times".

0830 GMT: Karroubi Speaks. The opposition outlet RASA TV posts video of a statement by Mehdi Karroubi, reportedly his last before an effective house arrest was imposed last week and his house was raided.

0820 GMT: The House Arrests. An English translation has been posted of another letter from the daughters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, asking the regime why they have not been able to see their parents for two weeks: "What have they done except to seek justice? Why were they responded to with disrespect and insolence?"

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi has jabbed at Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, "They have no connections [to people], but believe a whole world behind them."

0645 GMT: A Cleric's Warning. Hojatoleslam Mohammadi Golpayegani, the head of the Supreme Leader's office, has said, "The day that the clergy is isolated, the system falls."

So who, for Golpaygeani, is making the threat to isolate clerics?

0625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Maziar Khasravi of the reformist newspaper Shargh has been freed on bail.

Journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad, serving 3 1/2 years in prison, has been released from hospital, after treatment for diabetes and kidney stones, and is on furlough from prison.

0620 GMT: A Mysterious Line. Thursday's "Persian Press Review" in The Tehran Times has this provocative note: "SHARQ: Mashaei is summoned (to Majlis)".

There is no further information about President Ahmadinejad's confidante and Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, and why he might be brought before Parliament. Shargh, the leading reformist newspaper, does not have an on-line version to check the report.

0545 GMT: It is an edgy, nervous phase in Iran's post-election crisis.

On Thursday, the regime mobilised a large security presence in Tehran, even though there had been no call by the opposition for a mass rally or indeed a public display of any kind. The Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi, made a prime-time appearance on State television. The chatter was that he might be annoucing the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, but in the end, he gave an unexceptional speech. He made the ritual declaration, to discredit the 14 February opposition marches, of the capture of one person connected with the CIA and one member of the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq. He then denied that there had no marches at all last Sunday, when thousands --- we believe tens of thousands --- were on the streets again.

All of this pointed to a regime uncertain, for all its latest measures with house arrests and detentions, of the strength of the opposition challenge. And, indeed, the opposition is probably not sure. Looking for a follow-up to last week's reappearance of public protest, activists put out the idea of a series of marches on Tuesdays, but there did not appear to be any concrete plans.

Elsewhere, the edginess was in the continuing battle over the future of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The former President has now declared that he will stand for re-election as head of the Assembly of Experts, despite both the political campaign by President Ahmadinejad's supporters against him and the threats to his family. Expect more of the same, with clerics and politicans beginning to pick sides as the election nears.