Iran Special: A Rafsanjani Alliance with "Moderate Conservatives"?

Ten days after he was removed as head of the Assembly of Experts, the political future of former Hashemi Rafsanjani continues to provoke much comment. In contrast to declarations that Rafsanjani's time was up as he was replaced by Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, some analysts have been portraying the Assembly vote as a clever strategic retreat. Rafsanjani had worked with his supposed opponent to ensure a handover that would block an "extremist" from taking charge of the Assembly.

Ali Chenar wrote this week from Tehran:

Rafsanjani gave up his seat, but the old guard and the moderate conservatives are still in charge. One thing is certain about Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani: he does not fight the battles he cannot win....

"Is Hashemi's time over?" Foreign observers have largely concluded "Yes." I posed the question to an Iranian academician. His answer: a simple "No." He continued, "Hashemi is not done for. Yes, it is true he has suffered a setback. He has lost a position whose political significance is very much debatable. However, by withdrawing from the line of fire and joining forces with Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, he has emerged as a focal point for the moderate conservatives." The significance of last week's election is more psychological than political in his opinion. "His opponents now believe they have cut him off, but Hashemi is still Hashemi."

I addressed the same question to a journalist. He laughed. "Hashemi is very much alive.... Now he is free to organize the conservatives who are highly critical of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by assuring them he has no plot against the Supreme Leader."

Chenar leaves that last sentence hanging. In fact, it should be the starting point for an analysis, one that goes far beyond Rafsanjani's tactics in the Assembly.

On Thursday, Rafsanjani posted a message for Iranian New Year on his website. Declaring "our nation deserves logic and satisfaction", concluding that the Government must be moral and immorality is not good for the system and the Revolution. Then he put out the claim of a significant division within the majority Principlist bloc.

At the same time, some Principlist MPs, such as Ali Motahari, were taking aim at the Government for its lavish New Year celebrations at a time of economic hardship for the country. Blame was placed on President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. who has been accused of putting an "Iran School of Thought" above an "Islamic School of Thought".

Coincidental statements? An EA correspondent points to me to an interview earlier this week with Khabar Online --- the outlet of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- in which Motahari backed up the thesis that "Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani acted very well and safeguarded the unity of the Assembly of Experts....[Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani] agreed to be a candidate so that the Assembly of Experts would not fall into the hands of the extremists."

Motahari continued, "With his special character, as ever Mr. Hashemi will have an influence in the political and social climate of the country." He refuted the idea that Rafsanjani was finished: "Mr. Hashemi has a very good social base, and despite all the propaganda, all the character assassinations and many accusations that were made against him during the past couple of years, he still has maintained his effective social base." And then Motahari put forth a political middle ground:

The recent crisis (the events that took place after the 2009 presidential election) caused the hearts to move apart from each other. The reasons for that were also some violations by both sides. Sometimes, people took sides in their judgments. They only regarded one side to be guilty and the other side to be innocent, and this prolonged the crisis.

However, if we act in such a way that people feel that justice is being implemented, and the offences of both those who dragged the people to the streets and those who in public made some false accusations against others will be investigated, the root of the crisis will dry up, and like the time prior to the (presidential) election unity will return to the political climate of the country.

No, this is far more than coincidence. With Parliamentary elections coming up next year and then the contest to replace President Ahmadinejad in 2013 --- not to mention the current conflicts between the Government, Parliament, and senior clerics --- we may be seeing new alignments.

The phrase "moderate conservatives" is a bit misleading. On social issues, such as the wearing of the hejab, Motahari and other Government critics are more "hard-line" than Ahmadinejad. What matters is the possible range of the political front. Both Ali Larijani and his brother Sadegh, the head of the judiciary, key MPs like Ahmad Tavakoli, Secretary of the Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf have all been involved in discussions over the last 18 months about curbing Ahmadinejad or even moving him out of the Presidency.

The prospect of Ahmadinejad's immediate downfall receded a year ago, so attention has been turning to who and what follows him. The apparent desire of Rahim-Mashai to take the Presidency is serving as a lightning rod for dissident Principlists.

These moves will not necessarily be public. Neither Larijani, given their positions, will come out for this new bloc --- although it is notable that Ali Larijani launched another political challenge to Ahmadinejad this week, declaring that dozens of Government actions had not been sanctioned by legislation --- and Rafsanjani will speak and write in code. 

In autumn 2009, in a curious episode in the post-election crisis, there were weeks of discussion of a National Unity Plan, with information and disinformation flying about. Rafsanjani was involved. So was Mahdavi Kani. And so were the "moderate conservatives".

Nothing came of that National Unity Plan. Instead, Motahari declared this week:

Some extremists believe that everybody, with the exception of a few people, should be eliminated from the field of the Revolution. One cannot talk about them. However, there are many other people who are sincere, and in the name of defending the Velayat [the Supreme Leader] they think that anybody who criticizes the system must leave the scene. In fact, those people do not have a proper understanding of the Velayat, but as they mean well they can be brought in.

So watch these references to "unity" from Rafsanjani and the "moderate conservatives". They may indeed mark a unification --- one which is not of support for the Government, but of the forging of an alliance to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his closest allies.