Egypt Special: An Up-to-Date Review of the Uprising, the Battle over the Constitution, and September's Elections

On 25 January, protest movements approached Tahrir Square in Cairo with a unified demand: the downfall of the regime. Eighteen days later, President Hosni Mubarak resigned from his post after 30 years in power.

The celebrations came to an abrupt end, however, when the Supreme Military Council took power, ostensibly as an interim replacement until forthcoming Parliamentary and Presidential elections. As "Sandmonkey", an Egyptian blogger and activist, highlighted, "It was time for the revolutionaries to play politics."

And that brought the Egyptian Constitution into question, for it gave too many powers to the President and not enough to the People’s Assembly and Shura Council to provide effective checks and balances.

A committee appointed by the Supreme Military Council presented potential amendments on 26 February and set this challenge: Vote "Yes" to alter the Constitution or vote "No" to re-write the foundations of Egyptian governance.

For the first time in the history of Egypt’s Presidential era --- since the Free Officers coup in 1952 --- the people could play an active role in politics. On 19 March, the constitutional referendum was held. Regardless of the outcome, this was history in the making. "Nancy", a mother oof two voted for the first time in her life, she described the experience as ‘Amazing...simply amazing." Another voter, "Engy", could not find the words to describe her elation.

But the elation could not cover up questions. Could this sudden revolution backfire, with undesired effects? The Egyptian people, who have been politically inactive for more than 60 years, were suddenly asked to make a decision on Constitutional matters, including the framework of the upcoming Parliament and the powers the future President would hold.

In an interview by Christiane Amanpour of American ABC News before the uprising succeeded, both President Mubarak and Vice President Omar Suleiman claimed to believe in democracy but said that Egypt may not be ready for it, specifically referring to culture and levels of illiteracy. Should they be removed from their positions, they said, the country risked the possibility of falling into unrest. And it could be argued that, since the Security Military Council replaced Mubarak, a political vacuum has brought more protests, strikes, sectarian violence, and a surge in crime.

The referendum on the Constitional amendments was concerned with nine articles which were to be changed. These included a limit of two four-year terms for Presidents and more scope for independents and opposition members to run for the country's highest office, while banning anyone who has dual nationality, one foreign parent, or a foreign wife from running.

The amendments propsed to restore full judicial supervision of elections, seen as key to preventing fraud. They also put limits on the emergency laws that have been in place for 30 years and gave police near-unlimited powers: Under the new rules, a referendum would be required to extend emergency law beyond six months.

Those pushing for a "No" vote in the referendum argued that amending the constitution was like treating a severe illness --- the weakness of the Egyptian system --- temporarily with a painkiller rather tackling the root of the problem. A "Yes" vote would return the Supreme Military Council to its main purpose of being an army; however, the speedy move to elections would also mean that the already well-established political parties would be given a major head-start. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the National Democratic Party of Mubarak endorsed the support of the amendments.

Islamic religious bodies also called for a "Yes" vote to affirm Article 2 of the Constitution, which states that "Islam is the Religion of the State. Arabic is its official language, and the principal source of legislation is Islamic Jurisprudence". Clerics warned that “should the current constitution be dissolved, ‘secularists, academics and Christians’ would use ‘democracy’ to eradicate ‘Islam’ from society”.

Those calling for a "No" vote sought a complete re-write of the Constitution, with a fresh start to introducing more democratic elements into civil society. A long list of actors, activists, and academics took part in the campaign, using Facebook and YouTube videos. Mohammed ElBaradei, the former Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and a likely Presidential candidate, argued, "After decades of repression the newly formed political parties in Egypt should be given time to prepare for future parliamentary elections....You cannot build a constitution based on false premise-it must be built on a solid rock."

Of Egypt's 45 million legible voters, 18,366,764 people voted in the referendum. The "Yes" camp won with 14,192,577 votes against 4,174,187 "No" ballots.

With 77% of the vote supporting the amendments, Parliamentary elections will be held in September and the process will begin to remove the Emergency Law. But the result also puts into perspective the mountain new political parties need to climb within the coming six-month period. The Supreme Military Council have given newly-developed parties a limited time to produce a manifesto and ensure their campaign reaches 85 million people inside Egypt and those living abroad.

With a vast land mass to cover, limited expenses and limited experience, in comparison to the Muslim Brotherhood and the National Democratic Party [Editor's Note: Since this analysis was written, an Egyptian court has ordered the dissolution of the NDP], the newer movements may struggle to find a prominent place in the campaign. Egypt’s version of Jon Stewart, Bassem Youssef, explaind that "Yes, indeed, possibly 90% of the vote on social networking sites may have 'No' on the amendments, but not all 85 million people have access to online social networks."

Meanwhile, the Supreme Military Council will contend the process leading towards establishing a democratically-elected Parliament has been brought forward, and Egypt’s economy is gradually stabilising. The referendum results were officially released on 21 March, and Egypt’s Stock Market, closed since 27 January, re-opened two days later.

As for the Presidential election, they will come in November, two months after the Parliamentary vote. Many hopefuls have already announced their plans to contest the elections: left-wing opposition activist Hamdeen Sabahi; Nobel Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei; former Arab League chief Amr Moussa; Hisham el-Bastawisi head of the group of judges who contested Mubarak’s regime; and Ayman Nour, founder of the Ghad Party. The Muslim Brotherhood however has said it will not nominate a candidate in the presidential elections, although it added that it will may provide backing to one of the hopeful.