The Latest from Iran (11 May): Assessing the Revolutionary Guards

Jafari and Ahmadinejad2045 GMT: So You Thought the Battle Was Over (one to end the evening)? President Ahmadinejad hits back at Ali Larijani in the Government v. Parliament battle over the merger of ministries (see 0800 GMT): "The respected speaker of the Majlis believes that he is the law, which is not true."

2005 GMT: So You Thought the Battle Was Over (continued even more)? And now the conflict expands to take in supporters of Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf....

This week Shafaf, a pro-Ghalibaf website, joined in the criticism of family and associates of Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for suspect financial practices:

How is it that a large project such as constructing the building for the [planned 2012] conference of heads of nonaligned nations in Kish Island, which needs $450 million, is given to a company that was founded with initial capital of $1,000? Mr. Mashai is certainly aware that 'Company F.,' one of whose managers is 'Mrs. P.', founded a company with initial capital of $1,000 in April 2010. The same company signed a few days later, and without due legal process, a contract worth $400 million with Kish Free Post. At that time, some mass media stated that the contract was granted on the order of Mr. Mashai, but he remained silent about it. So, the question is, how can 'Mrs. P.' and her father, who live in the US, come to Iran, found such a company, and just a few days later get such a large contract? Is this possible without lobbying and prior negotiations?

The Shafaf report was picked up by other conservative websites, such as Asr-e Iran, whose post was titled "Mr. Mashai, Explain This One".

Other allegations in Shafaf include claims of influence wielded by Abbas Ghaffari, the Ahmadinejad advisor who was arrested for "sorcery" last week, and Rahim-Mashai.

Websites supporting Rahim-Mashai and the President threatened legal action against Shafaf and claimed they have documents indicated Qalibaf's responsibility for the death of seven football fans in Azadi Stadium on 26 March 2005 and his funding of 70 websites, 42 weeklies, and two dailies.

1735 GMT: So You Thought the Battle Was Over (continued again)? Fars headlines this quote from a talk by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, "The Deviant Current is Swimming in Financial Corruption".

Larijani's speech follows accusations against some members of President Ahmadinejad's office, including claims that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi was involved in a large insurance fraud, and allegations this week of corruption among the family and associates of Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Mehr adds Larijani's claim that "the deviant current is actively trying to undermine the Ulama (clerical community) and promote Iranian nationalism".

1715 GMT: So You Thought the Battle Was Over (continued)? Supporters of Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai don't believe so. In his outlet Hafte Sobh , they ask, "Who Benefits from Attacking the Government?" Their answer:

The atmosphere of tension and psychological warfare that is pursued by certain groups is expanding on a daily basis, and we are seeing the increase in the criticism of the government. This is a fact that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently reaffirmed when he said, "The closer we get to the end of this administration, the higher will be the psychological, political, and propaganda pressure. But despite such conditions and difficulties, the victories of the government this year and the next will be more than last year's."

The site accused establishment opponents of exploiting the conflict over the aborted "resignation" of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi and his reinstatement by the Supreme Leader to give the impression that the President had disobeyed Ayatollah Khamenei.

Another Ahmadinejad ally, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, former Presidential advisor and head of State news agency IRNA, has criticised Fars and Kayhan for attacking him over his defence of Ahmadinejad and his question if the Supreme Leader had ordered the reinstatement of Moslehi.

1705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women's rights activist Maryam Bahreman has been arrested in Shiraz.

1625 GMT: So You Thought the Battle Was Over? The battle front between President Ahmadinejad and his critics has been fought this week over a body called the Supreme Council for Iranian Expatriates,founded by Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim Mashai.

The President had requested a substantial sum for the Council in this year's Iranian budget, passed by the Parliament and approved by the Guardian Council today, prompting heated criticism. Eventually the Parliament did not grant the requested budget for the Council, although its head, Mohammad Sharif Malak-Zadeh, said that it will continue its activities.

Hardline MP Parviz Sarvari, a former officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and member of the Council, alleged, "When the budget was being debated for approval, we were aware of text messages that were being sent to the deputies in which they were being promised to be put in charge of management and monitoring of projects worth more than a billion Euros. This is a type of bribe that was intended to convince the deputies to approve the [council's] budget."

The Parliament has formed a committee to investigate the work of the Council.

The website Hafte Sobh (7 AM), linked to Rahim-Mashai, responded to Sarvari's accusations:

The claim made by some hardline Majlis deputies about the Supreme Council for Iranian Expatriates offering bribes is an insult to the Majlis. While the hardliners are trying to accuse the President of breaking the law and violating the rights of the legislative branch, they simultaneously and founded on a baseless accusation talk about bribes by the council to the deputies....This is the same tactic used against the 1st Vice President [Mohammad Reza Rahimi] when he was accused of bribing the deputies, but no evidence was ever presented and it remains just a claim.

1600 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Medical student Mostafa Eskandari has reportedly been sentenced to 31 years in prison.

1440 GMT: Cabinet Watch. Video has been posted of President Ahmadinejad at today's Cabinet meeting, telling Ministers that he will persist with the decision to merge eight Ministries, without consultation of Parliament, despite the objections of legislators (see 0800 GMT).

1430 GMT: Currency Watch. Fars reports that the "street rate" of the Iranian toman has reached 1200 to the US dollar.

This is the lowest value of the toman against the dollar since last autumn, when the Iranian authorities intervened with injections of foreign currency.

1355 GMT: James Miller reports on our Syria LiveBlog that Al Jazeera's reporter Dorothy Parvaz has been deported to Iran. Al Jazeera English has released this statement:

We have now received information that she is being held in Tehran. We are calling for information from the Iranian authorities, access to Dorothy, and for her immediate release. We have had no contact with Dorothy since she left Doha on 29 April and we are deeply concerned for her welfare.

Parvaz, who has Canadian, America, and Iranian citizenship, was apparently detained at the international airport in Damascus upon her arrival.

There has been no news from Iranian outlets about the reporter. Iran, which does not recognise multiple nationality for an Iranian citizen, is holding more than 60 journalists in detention.

1310 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Twenty-six prominent political prisoners have filed a complaint against the Revolutionary Guards and Ministry of Intelligence alleging torture.

The 26 include Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Bahman Ahmadi Amoui Abdollah Momeni, Emad Bahavar, Mustafa Tajzadeh, Mohammad Davari, Keyvan Samimi, and Behzad Nabavi.

1220 GMT: Labour Front. Kashan textile workers have protested in front of the Governor's office over 32 months of unpaid wages.

1120 GMT: Budget Watch. The Guardian Council has approved Parliament's passage of the 2011/12 Budget, held up for months by disputes between the Majlis and the Government.

1000 GMT: US Hikers Watch. Today's hearing in the espionage trial of Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer (see 0605 GMT) has been postponed.

The lawyer for Bauer and Fattal, Masoud Shafaiee, said, "They did not bring Shane and Josh to the court and I was not told why. I waited in the court for two hours....I was not told about the (date) of the next session and I still was not able to see them."

0900 GMT: Sorcery Watch (Paul the Octopus Edition). Iran Police Chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam has joined the campaign over the alleged sorcery and exorcism leading to the arrest of staff in the President's office: "Unfortunately, no matter how modern societies are in science and technology, superstitious beliefs continue to flourish....This is not compatible with our religious teachings."

And Ahmadi Moghaddam's case for comparison with Iran's current situation? The predictions of Paul the Octopus for the 2010 World Cup (and, although Ahmadi Moghaddam did not mention it, between the Supreme Leader and Mir Hossein Mousavi).

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. I'm finally beginning to understand the complex battle between the Majlis and President Ahmadinejad over the Government's declaration that eight ministries --- include Oil, Energy, and Industry --- will be merged into four new units.

The Government maintains that it is only fulfilling the 5th Development Plan (2010-2015), which said 21 ministries should be reduced to 17.

However, Parliamentary leaders are complaining that the move has been imposed unilaterally, without consultation with the Majlis. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warned yesterday that the merger is illegal, and the Parliament has said it will not recognise the new ministries and Ministers until the situation is clarified.

Some press accounts indicate that the existing ministers had not been informed of the mergers.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has upheld the two-year sentence of Vahid Lalipour, the husband of detained student activist Mahdieh Golroo.

0610 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Some notable comments from the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, on Monday....

Bahonar jabbed at Ahmadinejad over claims that the President is going to manipulate the 2012 Parliament elections: “[He] cannot say that he is going to select the Parliament.” He continued, “Ahmadinejad and [former President Mohammad] Khatami both came to power with the help of political parties and organizations, but after winning the election, they deserted their supporters.”

Then Bahonar launched his main attack on Ahmadinejad's camp:

There is this deviant faction and I don’t even think they follow the laws of Islam. Most of them are followers of mysticism and Sufism. In other words, they claim that if they can directly connect to the Hidden Imam, then there is no need for intermediaries. And the logical conclusion is [there is no necessity for] the Hidden Imam’s deputy [Supreme Leader]. Of course, they will not tell you this from day one.

Bahonar's only consolation for the President was over questioning of Ahmadinejad, which has been demanded in a petition by 90 of 290 MPs:“These questions must be solely and not political.”

0605 GMT: The US Hikers. The US State Department, relaying information from the Swiss Embassy in Tehran, has said that the trial of American citizens Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer for spying will resume on Wednesday.

Fattal, Bauer, and Sarah Shourd were arrested on 31 July 2009 as they walked along the Iran-Iraq border. Shourd was released on $500,000 bail last September and has refused to return for the hearing.

0530 GMT: The House Arrests. The regime continues its pressure upon opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi, held for almost three months in strict house. Authorities have refused permission for Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, to attend the 40th day memorial service for Mousavi's father, who died at the end of March.

0500 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran's most important military organisation, and its role in the current political crisis involving the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad.

Last week, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, made clear that the organisation supported the authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: "In defending the Islamic Revolution, Sepah [the Guards] will not wait for instructions." The declaration may have been one of the prompts for Ahmadinejad to back away from his attempt to take control of the Ministry of Intelligence by forcing the resignation of Minister Heydar Moslehi, a move blocked by the Supreme Leader: on Sunday, he made a lengthy pledge obedience to Khamenei.

But even after Ahmadinejad's climb-down, the Revolutionary Guards have maintained the pressure. Its outlet, Javan, predicted further "deviance" from Ahmadinejad's office in the near future and asserted that supporters of the Supreme Leader "recognize the difference between slogans and actions". 

This recognition of the Guards' position is vital. Only yesterday a leading US analyst, writing for perhaps the most prominent Web outlet on US foreign policy, offered the misleading summary:

Ahmadinejad is still believed to have powerful supporters inside the Corps, despite comments made last week by Maj. Gen. Mohammad-Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, warning the president to "stay away from deviant factions," a term used to refer to Ahmadinejad's chief of staff and close confidant, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaie. Many high-ranking officers and the rank and file of the IRGC share Ahmadinejad's radical views and political ideology and have greatly benefited from his government's policies in the past six years. They will stop at little to provoke Israel and empower Iran's regional proxies, which include Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

This assertion, inaccurate in its portrayal of Iran's internal crisis and simplistic in the description of its foreign policy, leads to the declaration that Washington should choose sides: "Such is the state of affairs inside Iran's regime that Khamenei and the conservatives the United States once called "hard-liners" are now a safer bet than the wild card that is Ahmadinejad."

An EA correspondent offers a more judicious and, I think, prudent assessment:

The IRGC rank-and-file is a veritable hodge-podge which includes anything from [Mir Hossein] Mousavi supporters to Ahmadinejad enthusiasts. The top level leadership is staunchly pro-Khamenei and nothing else.