Syria, Libya, Palestine (and Beyond) LiveBlog: While Obama Speaks....

2100 GMT: Claimed video of a demonstration in Homs tonight, "The people want to topple the regime":

2040 GMT: A day after balking at an agreement to transfer power, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said --- through a spokesman --- that he will sign the arrangement.

Spokesman Ahmed al-Sufi said Saleh will accept Sunday during the celebration of Yemen National Day at the Presidential Palace in Sanaa. Al-Sufi said Abdul-Latif al-Zayyani, the head of the Gulf Co-operation Council, would return to Yemen for the event.

The GCC, which brokered the agreement, said in a statement that its foreign ministers would meet in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday and al-Zayyani would attend.

The Yemeni opposition dismissed Saleh’s promise to sign.

2010 GMT: Sweden has deported two members of the Libyan Embassy in Stockholm, saying, "Their activity has been in conflict with the rules that apply to diplomats."

2000 GMT: Thanks to James Miller for taking the LiveBlog through the afternoon.

I return to find further confirmation of the release of four journalists in Libya. Clare Morgana Gillis, James Foley, Manuel Brabo, and Nigel Chandler are now in Tunisia.

The Hungarian Embassy in Tripoli drove the journalists to the Tunisian border.

The status of freelance photographer Anton Lazarus Hammerl, who went missing on 5 April, remains unknown.

1835 GMT: Several sources are reporting that communications have been shut off and security forces have moved into the Syrian city of Douma. However, Al Jazeera is carrying a very confusing account of protesters being killed in conflicts there today. So far, we are noting their coverage, but we've not receieved any corroborating information of this account.

1814 GMT: A senior Yemeni official has said that there is hope for a transition of power deal, which President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign earlier in the week: "Maybe it will be signed on Sunday."

Maybe. James Miller is not holding his breath.

1752 GMT: Barack Obama's speech - Perhaps the only piece of "news" in the speech was that the United States will relieve one billion dollars worth of Egyptian debt while focusing on other economic and trade developments to jump-start the new democracy:

"We are working with Congress to create Enterprise Funds to invest in Tunisia and Egypt. These will be modeled on funds that supported the transitions in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. OPIC will soon launch a $2 billion facility to support private investment across the region. And we will work with allies to refocus the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development so that it provides the same support for democratic transitions and economic modernization in the Middle East and North Africa as it has in Europe.

"Fourth, the United States will launch a comprehensive Trade and Investment Partnership Initiative in the Middle East and North Africa."

1747 GMT: Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to meet, once again, in an attempt to negotiate a settlement to the crisis in Yemen. The GCC's envoy left Yemen on Wednesday night, having failed to get the signature of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and no time frame was mentioned for the new GCC meeting.

1614 GMT: As Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama speak on the Middle East, Scott Lucas will be covering the developments live on a separate entry. 

1608 GMT: While many are focused on Barack Obama, it is important to note that tomorrow is May 20th. That date is significant because it marks the 60th day of US military involvement in Libya. Under United States law, the president can only engage in 60 days of armed conflict before he needs to get approval from Congress. If Congress blocks these efforts, the President has 30 days to withdraw from the fight. The New York Times has a good overview of the issue, there are already people arguing that Obama is waging an Illegal War in Libya.

1554 GMT: Another video showing large-scale protests last night in Aleppo, Syria. 

1443 GMT: The Kingdom of Bahrain has sentenced 9 people, including opposition cleric Sheik Mohammed Habib al-Moqdad, to 20 years in prison. The 9 were tried in military secrect courts. They were convicted of allegedly kidnapping a police officer. No details of the crime they are accused of were provided.

1437 GMT: This video shows security forces beating students in Hodeidah, Yemen, on May 18. Security was positioned at the gates of the university, and beat students the minute they began to organize.

1410 GMT: Al Jazeera has some interesting developments. They are running many pictures of the Israeli Army Corps of Engineers rebuilding the fence on the border of the Golan Heights. However, tanks have been deployed to the region as the heavy earth movers build. AJE is running these pictures side by side with pictures and reports from Areda, a Syrian village on the border with Lebanon, where soldiers have taken positions across the town.

 

1405 GMT: James Miller, arriving on the scene...

The AP drops a quiet (and perhaps anticipated) bomb-shell this morning, that despite the developments in the Middle East:

 Despite their deepening political divide, the United States and Saudi Arabia are quietly expanding defense ties on a vast scale, led by a little-known project to develop an elite force to protect the kingdom's oil riches and future nuclear sites.

The report also mentions a $60 billion arms deal that would supply the Saudis with f-15 fighters. The U.S. is also expanding the missile defense systems in an attempt to mitigate the mutual threat of Iran. 

My analysis: The Obama administration has been straddling two islands that are rapidly moving in opposite directions; their staunch allies in the region on onse side, and the mutinous Arab youth on the other. When Barack Obama made his now famous speech in Egypt at the beginning of his presidency, he was perhaps making overtures to the youth while applying slight pressure to his allies, but since then he has had to react to a rapidly changing Middle East. Many members of the Arab awakening are frustrated with Obama's saupport of repressive regimes, but old allies like the Saudis have been increasingly frustrated at how quickly the Obama administration turned on the Mubarak regime. Today, less than two hours from his next speech, we have this story about US military support for the Saudis, an attempt to improve relations on a different front, the Iranian front.

1325 GMT: A special security court in Bahrain has sentenced nine people to 20 years in prison each on charges of abducting a policeman, according to State news agency BNA.

1320 GMT: Back from an extended academic break to find a 6 1/2-clip of protest and gunfire in Daraa in southern Syria on Wednesday:

0900 GMT: According to Al-Tagheer, Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign a political agreement on Wednesday because the names of opposition figures on the document were those of"terrorists".

Under the arrangement, put forward by the six nations of the Gulf Co-operation Council, Saleh would transfer power to a Vice President within 30 days.

0630 GMT: More footage of the Wednesday night march in Aleppo in Syria --- protesters chant slogans against President Assad but disperse when they are charged by unidentified men:

See also Israel-Palestine-Syria Video: More Footage from the Nakba Day Marches
Syria 1st-Hand: "Daraa Changed Everything" (Streets, Inc.)
Syria & Iran Video: Freed Journalist Parvaz "The Beatings in Syria Were Savage
Syria and Yemen Video Special: The Protests of Defiance
Bahrain 1st-Hand: Expelled Journalist on "A Nation Now in Fear" (Richter)
Middle East: Obama Plans a Speech, But Little Prospect of Substance (Landler/Cooper)

0625 GMT: Syrian State news agency SANA has been posting photographs to deny any effect from the opposition's attempt at a general strike on Wednesday. A picture from Homs to set against the opposition videos of shop closures in that city:

0610 GMT: Claimed footage of an anti-regime march in the centre of Damascus last night:

0555 GMT: The latest line from the Libyan regime on the Minister of Oil, Shokri Ghanem, is that he has not defected but has been in Vienna “meeting oil companies”.

Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim said Ghanem would be going to Egypt for more oil talks before returning to Tripoli “in a few days". He claimed Mr. Ghanem had talked on the telephone on Tuesday with Prime Minister Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi.

But Kaim offered an indication that Ghanem's status might not be settled: “At the end of the day, if he wants to resign, he’s free. If he wants to defect, then he can make it public. That’s why the government is still in touch with him. That’s all I can say.”

Tunisian officials and a former Libyan Minister have said that Ghanem crossed the border into Tunisia on Monday.

0520 GMT: Bahrain's Foriegn Minister Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa will meet British Prime Minister David Cameron in London today.

The Foreign Minister has the reputation of being the leading advocate of political reform among the monarchy, but his influence has reportedly been curbed since March, with others in the regime pushing for the crackdown on dissent.

0500 GMT: Demonstration in Aleppo, Syria's second city, on Wednesday night:

0440 GMT: A lot of the media attention today will be on President Obama's speech (1530 GMT) on North Africa and the Middle East. 

The White House is already promoting this as Obama's new initiative both on the long-stalled Israel-Palestine peace process and the "Arab Spring". Josh Rogin, a favoured outlet for the US Government's declarations of action, summarises, "The Obama administration has been furiously advancing its regional diplomatic efforts on a wide range of issues."

Yet Rogin's description has the opposite effects: it indicates how limited Obama's speech and US moves may be in substance, if not appearance. Leaving aside the difficulty of seeing what Washington can propose on Israel and Palestine --- envoy George Mitchell finally gave up the effort and Obama himself has already been curbed by advisors like Tom Donilon and Dennis Ross --- events from Yemen to Syria to Libya raised further questions on Wednesday.

On Syria, the US put out the symbolic declaration that sanctions will be applied to President Bashar al-Assad, but this is unlikely to alter the tension of occupation and protest that continues through the country. The Libyan dilemma --- should Washington push for regime change in Tripoli? --- is unlikely to be resolved by an American decision. Instead, the changes will come from within: the hot rumour last night was that leader Muammar Qaddafi's wife and daughter had fled the country, but more substantial and significant was the earlier news that the Minister of Oil had departed.

Perhaps the sharpest response, even before Obama spoke, came from Yemen. Rogin wrote in his publicity for the Administration that John Brennan, the President's counter-terrorism advisor, had pressed President Saleh throughout Wednesday to accept a deal for the transition of power.

Last night, Saleh rejected the arrangement.