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Wednesday
Jul062011

The Latest from Iran (6 July): Revolutionary Guards Do Politics

1850 GMT: Reformist Watch. Ali Shakouri Rad, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has told an audience of young supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, "We do not trust the government and the Guardian Council, and if they want to monitor elections --- given the context of past elections --- they are meaningless."

1705 GMT: Media Watch. Fars tries to take the high ground in the current political conflict, claims that the "disclosures" of the Supreme Leader's and Ahmadinejad's followers against each other are "media charlatanism".

1700 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, in the midst of his play for support from the Supreme Leader, has declared that Ayatollah Khamenei, in a meeting with MPs, said the Majlis has the right to interrogate and impeach the President.

1640 GMT: Politically Incorrect Watch. The good news is that President Ahmadinejad has tried to use the opening of Iran's highest concrete dam, in the Western province of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, to divert everyone from the political conflict.

The bad news is that he didn't exactly raise the bar of rhetoric.

Ahmadinejad gave a ritual denunciation of the "West", "As far as the nuclear issue is concerned, what they fear is Iran's ability and determination that drove us into this path."

So far, so good. But then this: "We don't need to build bombs. Bombs are for retarded people."

1635 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Better political news for the President, as it looks like EA's assessment --- the Supreme Leader will not support the fall of Ahmadinejad because there is no obvious replacement --- is coming to fruition:

Mojtaba Zolnour, until recently the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has said that the "nezam" (system) does not want to dismiss Ahmadinejad because it would be too costly and people would have to pay the price.

1630 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Just a reminder --- although President Ahmadinejad was reportedly backing away this morning (see 0845 GMT) from his implication about the involvement of the Revolutionary Guards in smuggling, here is the video of the speech:

1300 GMT: Economy Watch. Peyke Iran claims that 70% of 230 production units in Orumiyeh in northwest Iran have been shut down.

1245 GMT: The House Arrests. The mother of Zahra Rahnavard, who is under strict house arrest with her husband Mir Hossein Mousavi, has spoken about the "alarming physical condition" of her daughter and Mousavi.

Rahnavard's mother saw the detainees two weeks ago. She said, despite the concerns about her daughter's health, both she and her husband were "in a good mood, strong and solid as always".

The elder Rahnavard said she had had "threatening encounters" with the security guards, who were verbally and physically abusive. She asked, "They threaten us telling us to stay silent but how much longer can we stay silent?"

Mousavi and Rahnavard, along with Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, were put under strict house arrest in mid-February.

1230 GMT: The Battle Within. Another shot at the President's camp --- Hojatoleslam Mehdi Taeb has said that Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is a hermit, Freemason, spy, and Jewish infiltrator.

And, to top all this, Taeb declared that Rahim-Mashai is the Abu-Bakr of our times --- Abu-Bakr was the first Sunni Muslim Caliph after the death of Prophet Mohammad.

Mehdi Taeb is the older brother of Hossein Taeb, former head of the Basij militia and now head of the Intelligence Bureau of the Revolutionary Guards.

The attack is even sharper because both Taebs have been staunch supporters of the President.

1110 GMT: Economy Watch. Mardomak notes that milk prices are likely to rise as subsidies are due to end tomorrow.

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoumeh Dehghan, retired teacher and wife of prominent lawyer Abdolfatah Soltani, has been arrested after she was summoned to the Prosecutor’s Office at Evin Prison.

Soltani, who is also his wife's attorney, was not allowed to accompany Dehghan.

0855 GMT: Cartoon of Day. Nikahang Kowsar considers Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani's statement that the Supreme Leader is always right and can intervene to change legislation, adding the context of the 2013 Presidential election:

See also Iran Cartoon of the Day: The Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, and the Dragon

0845 GMT: A Presidential Retreat? The opposition site Rah-e Sabz is claiming that President Ahmadinejad has backed away from his weekend implications that the Revolutionary Guards are involved in smuggling. Ahmadinejad said that agencies published a "distorted" version of the speech.

According to Rah-e Sabz, the President's declaration on smuggling has been removed from Government websites.

0620 GMT: Smuggling Watch. Amidst this week's argument between President Ahmadinejad and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over illegal imports, the Iranian Students News Agency lists 80 illegal ports and wharves in five Iranian provinces.

0605 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Almost 700 activists have signed a statement calling on people to "break their silence" and support Kurdish prisoners on hunger strike, as "their lives are in danger".

RAHANA offers information on one of those prisoners, Kamal Sharifi, arrested in 2007 for collaborating with the Kurdistan Democratic Party and mohareb (war against God). He was sentenced to 30 years in prison, with a ban on visits.

Sharifi has been on hunger strike for more than a month, seeking a meeting with the judge and protesting prison conditions.

Sharifi's father Bayazid met with the head of the Sanadaj Revolutionary Court, Judge Shayegh, who issued the sentence, to request a prison visit so he could urge his son to end the hunger strike. Shayegh allegedly told him, “There is no need to see him; let him die.”

0530 GMT: Campus Watch. President Ahmadinejad has expressed his opposition to gender segregation in universities, following the announcement of Sharif University in Tehran that 1st-year men and women will be separated from this autumn.

Ahmadinejad has clashed with others within the Iranian establishment over "liberal" cultural views on gender, such as enforcement of hijab and integration of public spaces such as football stadiums.

0455 GMT: The statement from the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, in his Monday-Tuesday interview with Mehr was a headline-grabber --- yes, his forces had seized several advisors of President Ahmadinejad: "The IRGC arrested and detained these people based on a recommendation by the judiciary."

Yet, even as Jafari was saying the mililtary was being used for law enforcement at the highest levels, there was an equally significant declaration: they were also setting the rules in politics.

Jafari effectively linked up with the strategy of some conservatives/principlists, in advance of the 2012 Parliamentary elections, on an "acceptable" reformist movement which could participate:

Members of the reformist camp who have not crossed the red lines can naturally participate in political campaigns. However, [former President Mohammad] Khatami's success in his activities depends on his stances....During the sedition incident [the 2009 post-election protest], Mr Khatami did not pass his test successfully and he showed a lot of support for the sedition leaders [Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi]....However there are other individuals [in the reformist camp] who have not crossed the red lines and they can actively participate in political campaigns.

Put it all together, and you get the extent of the political conflict in Iran at this moment. The leaders of the IRGC, joining the fight against the President's inner circle, are so concerned that they are aligning with the strategy of Ahmadinejad's conservative/principlist opponents to link up with "moderate reformists".

And the military, in doing that, is dispelling any illusion --- only 25 months after the 2009 Presidential election --- that it stays out of politics, including the electoral process, in Iran. 

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