The Latest from Iran (25 August): Does Tehran Face an Oil Crisis?

2010 GMT: Currency Watch. The Iranian toman has now dropped on the free market to 1200 v. the US dollar, a significant gap from the Central Bank rate of 1068:1.

The toman is nearest the low point it reached last autumn, when Iranian authorities intervened with the release of US dollars from foreign reserves.

2000 GMT: Unity Watch. Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, head of the Expediency Council and one of the driving forces for conservative/principlist unity, has said, "We accept no conditions of the [Islamic] Constancy Front", which has reportedly said it will not join talks if representatives of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are involved.

Meanwhile, it is reported that representatives of a leading MP, Rouhollah Hosseinian, did not attend the meeting of the 7+8 unity meeting.

1940 GMT: Fashion Watch. A deputy at the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has assured, "Design of appropriate Islamic manteaus (coats for women) is on the agenda."

1930 GMT: House Arrest Claim of Day. Mahramane Online claimed today that opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, kept under strict house arrest for more than six months, has written a letter of repentance to the Iranian nation which will be published "within some hours".

(No, we haven't seen such a letter yet.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Prominent reformist politicians Behzad Nabavi, Feizollah Arabsorkhi, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Abolfazl Ghadiani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, and Mohammad Javad Emam have returned to Evin Prison after short furloughs from their lengthy sentences.

1825 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Reformist Watch). The opposition Coordinating Council of Green Hope, writing in the context of the successful uprising against Libya's Muammar Qaddafi, has called on the populace to shout "Allah Akbar (God is Great)", as "the first basic step" in protest and towards freedom in Iran.

The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, while supporting the peoples of Palestine and Lebanon, has declared that Iran's "ruling dictators have turned the popular Quds Day", which is tomorrow, "into a state show".

1625 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has spoken about the damage caused by "lying to spread alarm in the community".

1315 GMT: Economy Watch. Parliament's Research Centre has said that President Ahmadinejad's "promise of lower prices was a lie".

1235 GMT: Elections Watch. Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, brother of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has said that the Kargozaran Party --- fostered by Rafsanjani in the 1990s --- does not intend to participate in March's Parliamentary elections and that news reports to the contrary are false.

1055 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). The European Union, accusing an elite branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guards of giving supplies and other support to Syria to help crush the uprising against the Assad regime, has banned European travel by the Quds Force, as well as by 15 Syrian officials and four branches of Syria's intelligence services, and has frozen their assets.

The EU claimed that the Quds Force "has provided technical assistance, equipment and support to the Syrian security services to repress civilian protest movements".

The EU did not produce its evidence in support of the claim.

In June, an earlier set of EU sanctions over Syria's crackdown named three commanders in the Revolutionary Guards.

1045 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Turkish Front). Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi, the former head of Iran's judiciary, has claimed that Turkey is using developments in the region to promote liberal Islam, implying that this is in the service of the US and European countries: "Arrogant Western powers are afraid of regional countries' relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and are making efforts to introduce innovative models of Islam."

Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi echoes, "We did not expect Turkey to approve of arrogant powers and be at their complete disposal."

0905 GMT: Curbing the Lawyers. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has called on Iran's Central Bar Association to "come to the aid of embattled lawyers subjected to harassment, unfounded criminal charges, or prison sentences for defending prisoners of conscience, and advocating for human rights".

ICHRI also said the International Bar Association and United Nations Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers should intervene to defend Iranian lawyers facing persecution.

The Campaign recently posted a list of 32 lawyers who have been imprisoned or released on heavy bail since the 2009 Presidential election.

0900 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Palestine Front). In advance of the Quds Day rallies over Palestine, reformists are declaring that they are committed to support of the Palestinian people. Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, revisiting a popular slogan of the protests after the 2009 elections, has explained that "neither Gaza nor Lebanon" was not a call by the opposition for Iran to distance itself from foreign affairs, but a natural reaction to Ahmadinejad's labelling of his opponents as "dust and trash" on the day after his supposed re-election.

Meanwhile, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken his position over Quds Day, warning of "inflammatory speeches" --- presumably from Government officials --- on the occasion.

0825 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). President Ahmadinejad, in an apparent shift of Iranian policy, called Wednesday for dialogue between the Syrian regime and the opposition to end months of violence.

"The people and government of Syria must come together to reach an understanding," he told Al-Manar television, the outlet of Lebanon's Hezbollah movement. "When there is a problem between the people and their leaders they must sit down together to reach a solution, away from violence," he said.

Ahmadinejad continued, "One must not kill the other, because killing, whichever side is responsible, serves Zionist interests."

Since the start of the Syrian uprising in March, regime officials and Iran's state media have chosen either silence or open support for Syria's President Assad; however, in recent weeks, some conservative newspapers have begun to note the killing of civilians by Syrian security forces and called on the Government to express concern.

0645 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Swiss-German construction equipment manufacturer Liebherr has pledged, in a letter to activist group United Against Nuclear Iran, to "cease all business operations in Iran", saying that as of May 2011, it had “informed [its] former customers and business associates in Iran that the companies of the Liebherr Group will cease their business activities with them".

Liebherr is the fourth major crane company, following Tadano, Terex, and UNIC to pledge a pull-out after UANI publicised the regime's use of construction cranes for public hangings.

0525 GMT: Oil Watch. The Middle East Economic Digest, published in Dubai, claims, "Iran risks becoming a net oil importer if output rates continue to fall. The natural rate of decline in Iran's crude oil production is estimated at 8-11% a year."

The Digest continued, "Against the backdrop of rising domestic demand and a lack of foreign investors, Iran's ambitious targets of lifting production from 4.1 million barrels per day to 5 million bpd over the long term have been missed and pushed back. This was the case even before foreign investment in Iran started drying up."

The Iranian newspaper Ayande claimed Tuesday that Iranian production, estimated at more than 4 million bpd last year, had fallen to 3.2 million.

0500 GMT: Like yesterday, we begin with signs of trouble for the regime over oil.

Nasser Soudani, the deputy chairman of Parliament's Energy Commission, made a quick retraction yesterday, less than 48 hours after he told Mehr that Iran --- supposedly self-sufficient in providing for its oil needs --- was "temporarily" resuming import: "I do not confirm the report regarding petrol imports into the country. Unfortunately, the report was published based on a misinterpretation made by some media."

On Monday, Soudani had reportedly said, "The domestically-produced gasoline due to its low octane (rating) lacks a desirable quality and has to be mixed" with imported fuel with a better quality. He said output had decreased after a 23 May explosion at the Abadan refinery in southern Iran.

Minister of Oil Rostam Qasemi tried to clarify the situation: "We currently do not have the need to import gasoline, but we may have the need for some necessary components to produce gasoline."

In September 2010, Tehran announced self-sufficiency in gasoline production with daily output of 66.5 million litres. However, on 14 August, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, Jalil Salari, said Iran was producing around 50 million litres of gasoline per day,told Mehr on August 14.

Daily consumption currently stands at 54.8 million litres, according to the Ministry of Oil's news agency.

Last Friday, the chairman of Parliament's Energy Commission, Hamidreza Katouzian said, "We are faced with a shortage of petrol."