Iran Special Analysis: US Hikers Released --- Everyone, including Ahmadinejad, is a Winner (for Now)

Josh Fattal and Shane BauerBefore delving into the realms of the political, manipulative, and cynical, I should emphasise that the primary winners of yesterday's drama from Tehran to Oman en route to the US --- if someone can win after 26 months in detention on unproven allegations --- are the US hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer and their families. The scenes of reunion in Oman, where Fattal and Bauer were flown after their release from Tehran's Evin Prison on $500,000 bail each, speak far louder than any paragraph of commentary today.

And before untangling some of the tangled in-fighting of the Iranian establishment, delaying the release since President Ahmadinejad indicated eight days earlier that Bauer and Fattal would be freed, I should note a key factor in the eventual emergence of the two men from their cells. The Iranian regime just made $1 million from their detention --- indeed, added to the bailing of Bauer and Fattal's companion, Sarah Shourd, a year earlier, the profit to Tehran is $1.5 million. It was always going to be hard, whatever the politics, to pass up that windfall.

Now to the complications of winning and losing beyond today....

Sure, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gets a "victory" before he steps to  the podium at the United Nations General Assembly later today. It is unlikely that he will refer to Bauer and Fattal directly in his survey of grand issues and how Iran's leadership of global co-operation will vanquish the decline of the "Western" system; however, he will keep using US interviewers to point out his "unilateral humanitarian gesture". Few relish the show of the televised declaration as much as the Iranian President, and this was always going to be a scene for his annual New York stage.

Ahmadinejad also hoped it would be a scene in Iran. That is why, in one of the curiosities missed amidst Wednesday's developments, the largest set of celebratory photos came from none other than the Iranian State news agency IRNA. The pro-Ahmadinejad outlet was primed for this event to show the President's international influence and his negotiating ability --- look, he's compassionate, but he still showed up the US.

But it's a limited win, even in presentation. What Ahmadinejad really wanted was a big send-off for Bauer and Fattal --- think back to his centre-stage good-bye to 15 detained British sailors in 2007, presenting each of them with new suits before a large audience in the hall and on television --- before he left for the US. For the second year in row, he failed: his move in September 2010 for the freeing of all three American hikers resulted only in the liberation of Sarah Shourd, and that was done quietly rather than with Tehran fanfare.

So if you want an immediate "big" winner, look to the Iranian judiciary and its head, Sadegh Larijani. It was the judiciary that stalled and then curbed the President's efforts last September, and it replayed the game this past week. There were a couple of twists --- sending away a judge "on vacation" so he could not sign bail orders was a clever touch --- but the message was clear. If Ahmadinejad was going to say to an American television channel on 13 September that he was freeing Fattal and Bauer, then he would be shown on 14 September that this was not in his power.

The judiciary would accept the compromise that the release would occur before the President spoke to the UN --- that is why Ahmadinejad could tell the American ABC News on Tuesday that Bauer and Fattal were definitely being freed --- but its political point had been made.

But that still leaves questions. I am sure that Sadegh Larijani was happy to give Ahmadinejad a poke in the eye, and no doubt that his brother, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, is happy for a win in his ongoing battle with Ahmadinejad. But the Iranian judiciary, for all the President's verbal smoke that it is independent, does not act on its own.

The initial consideration of the release of Bauer and Fattal, its delay last week, its confirmation yesterday: all of these were decisions that would have been sanctioned a level above the judges and Sadegh Larijani. So what no one was saying yesterday, because no one from the highest platforms of the Iranian regime was going to go public with the obvious politics, was that the Supreme Leader's office would have been approving each act in the drama.

And that means that, once again, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle are not only balancing between different factions within the system but also trying to jerk Ahmadinejad on a political leash. Here, you can have your public victory. No, no, you can't. OK, you can have a bit of it.

End of story, as Fattal and Bauer return to the US and --- after a set of interviews with the American press --- retreat from public view?

Not quite. Because ever since Ahmadinejad made his initial statement on 13 September to NBC News, the tale of the hikers has diverted everyone from what is a far bigger part of the story, both within Iran and between Tehran and Washington.

For Ahmadinejad, the freeing of Bauer and Fattal was a signal for a larger negotiation. On the same day that his NBC interview was televised, The Washington Post published his declaration that, if the US would assure Tehran of the supply of 20% enriched uranium, Iran would stop production.

Not expand production, as Ahmadinejad has postured --- 10 enrichment plants, 20 --- in the past two years. Not limit. Stop.

In 2009 the President, facing questions over his legitimacy at home and isolation abroad after the disputed election, pushed for the first direct talks with the US since 1979. He got them in Geneva in October, with discussion of a plan in which other countries would enrich Iran's uranium stocks and return them for use in civilian programmes, such as the operation of Tehran's Medical Research Reactor. Ahmadinejad even got the agreement from Washington and its European allies to proceed with technical talks. 

And then the President's domestic opponents, Ali Larijani among them, pulled out the rug from under him. The plan was an insult to Iran's sovereignty and control over its nuclear programme, they said. The Supreme Leader's office --- which had been in a series of political battles with Ahmadinejad over the summer --- apparently agreed: the technical talks never took place.

Well, despite that experience, Ahmadinejad may have decided to try for talks with the US one more time before the end of his Presidency nears. In February, he attempted to send his controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai to New York for back-channel discussions. That initiative was blocked, again by a surge of domestic criticism, but Mr Rahim-Mashai is with the President this week. And they happen to be making their New York tour only two weeks after a conciliatory letter from Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to European Union representative Catherine Ashton proposed a resumption of discussions.

So Bauer and Fattal, pawns for 26 months in the chess game between Iran and the "West", are removed from the board. The bigger pieces are still there. And it remains to be seen whether we are in the endgame in Tehran, with the declaration of checkmate for or against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.