Syria, Bahrain, Yemen (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Blaming the "Foreign"

A protest last night in Bayada, not far from the battle in Rastan in Homs Province in Syria

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Monday's Syria, Bahrain, Yemen (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Popping the Regime's Bubble

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2025 GMT: One addition to James Miller's outstanding snap analysis below (see 1955 GMT) before we sign off for the day....

Reuters reports sharp rises in the prices of food and consumer goods after a widespread ban on imports imposed by the Syrian regime last week.

Amidst expanding sanctions by the US and the European Union, the regime banned all imports except grain, raw materials, and 51 essential items, in an effort to preserve dwindling foreign reserves.

Traders in Damascus and Aleppo said average prices had risen by up to 30%. Some said they have begun to hide stocks in the hope of selling at still higher prices as shortages take hold.

Damascus residents have complained that the prices of biscuits and potato chips, which have already risen during the six months of unrest, have jumped by more than 20% since last week, while 100-gramme bags of coffee and flour have risen 50%.

Six years ago, Assad lifted the import ban implemented by his father Hafez.

1955 GMT: At the end of the day, there have been very significant developments in Syria.

Today there were three main stories in Syria. The first, a renewed assault by Syrian military against al Rastan, Douma, and even certain areas of Damascus, just to name a few. Though it is early, and video evidence is still trickling in, the violence of these assaults matches some of the most heavy handed tactics the regime has used yet. Though we never saw security opening fire on a large crowd, we saw evidence of widespread use of artillery and tank bombardment, sometimes near schools and mosques.

The second major story is perhaps the most significant. There is now evidence that defecting Syrian soldiers have employed violence against the pro-Assad military. Eyewitness reports, and the intense video below, suggest that at least parts of the opposition are changing tactics, seeking to take up arms against a regime that has killed perhaps more than 3000 civilians since the start of this conflict. If this is true, it means that Syria has taken a step towards, at best, a Libyan style civil war.

the third major story, however, is that in most parts of Syria, it doesn't look like anything has changed at all. We saw large, peaceful protests in many areas of the country. It did appear that the protests were larger than they have been in recent memory, perhaps signalling a renewed commitment to resistance. If some members of the opposition have taken up arms against the regime, while large peaceful protests continue, the human cost of this conflict could escalate rapidly.

So far it's too early to tell, and this is all speculation, but it is entirely possible that the Arab spring in Syria has moved on to a new stage.

Aleppo:

A funeral for a martyr in Horan:

Kavromh, Idlib, anti-Assad chants at a funeral for a protester:

Daraa:

1940 GMT: A truly massive crowd shouts anti-Assad slogans at a funeral for a slain protester in Hama:

1935 GMT: A massive protest today in Al Qusayr, Homs, Syria (map):

1930 GMT: Another scene of the chaos in Homs today:

1923 GMT: According to a translation by a respected activist, this video was reportedly taken in the Al Qadam neighborhood of Damascus (MAP), showing the destruction done to homes. The video sarcastically claims that this is a result of Assad's "reforms." This is a very central, very important district of Damascus, adding to the significance of this claim:

1918 GMT: Spiegel reports that a Saudi Arabian woman, Shaima Ghassaniya, has been sentenced to 10 lashes for breaking the ban on female drivers. This ruling was handed out despite claims made by members of the Saudi ruling family that females will be granted more rights, and despite the fact that there is no law on the books against female driving, it is a ban given by a royal edict.

1655 GMT: The LCCS translates the description of the video: "Damascus suburbs: Kanaker, when the army stormed the city."

The video, dated 09/26, apparently shows men (perhaps defected army) throwing Molotov cocktails and stones in the general direction of what may be the army. The video is of poor quality, but gunfire, and perhaps a tank gun, can be heard coming from the direction that the stones were thrown at. It is hard to say who fired first, as the video starts in the middle of the action. One thing is certain, before today we haven't seen credible video of armed resistance to the Syrian military, and now reports are coming in every few hours.

1617 GMT: This video may be the catch of the day. It claims to be leaked footage of a Syrian tank firing on a mosque in Talbiseh, Homs. It is not known when the video was taken.

The building in question already appears partially destroyed. There is sporadic small arms fire that appears to be coming from the city below, though it does not appear to specifically target the tank crew. The tank has almost no line of sight on a specific target, and fires (near the end of the video) seemingly randomly into the city. Viewers will have to judge it for themselves.

1454 GMT: Israel has approved the building of 1,100 new homes southern Jerusalem, an area that Israel occupied in 1967. This move is already drawing the ire of Palestinians, and will assuredly complicate the peace process. Building of the news homes could start within 60 days.

1434 GMT: Meanwhile, there are reports of protests in many different areas, especially in the important Damascus suburb of Douma, in support of al Rastan and Homs. This video was reportedly taken in Douma today, and there are reports of clashes and arrests. According to the LCCS, Al-Jalaa street has been closed to traffic by security forces, where they forced show owners to close and then attacked protesters to disperse the crowd.

1428 GMT: The audio is what's important. This is what activists claim that the streets of Khalidaya, Homs, sound like today:

1417 GMT: The Local Coordinating Committees of Syria (LCCS) have these updates on the situation in Homs (no mention of defecting soldiers returning fire, yet):

Heavy gunfire in Ghouta near Gardenia square and a demonstration in Bab Sbaa [on of the central gates in Homs]

Three martyrs and more than 25 wounded some of whom are in critical condition, during the military operation in Khalidiyah and Bayada neighbourhoods

1409 GMT: A quick check on Syrian State TV, SANA, hasn't revealed much about today's events in Syria. However, SANA is claiming that on Monday an army Lieutenant was killed by an "armed terrorist group" in Idlib, and a teacher was killed by the same in Homs. It's worth noting that the opposition is claiming that the teacher was killed by the regime for allegedly participating in the recent student protests, and thus far the soldiers who have been kileld by "armed gangs" have, according to the opposition, been defecting soldiers killed by the military. However, if Page's accounts can be verified (they have not yet been confirmed) then it may mean that Assad is finally getting the "armed gangs" he's been talking about.

1402 GMT: Some quick analysis on this latest news. Alexander Page's accounts match information that we have been receiving, that the Syrian military is attacking al Rastan, and there are more reports that this attack may have started to spread to Homs itself. The breaking news is that the situation has continued to escalate.

But the REALLY significant report is that the defecting soldiers have started to return fire. If that is true, we may be at a major turning point in this conflict. We have to caution that this is a single report. An EA correspondent notes:

Page is usually cited as being in Damascus so he has either moved or is taking info from others there (which is interesting giving supposed communications cuts).

1355 GMT: More reports from an activist claiming to be inside Syria, Alexander Page:

BREAKING: Heavy gunfire ongoing in #Rastan right now, defectors are multiplying as a result of the ongoing onslaught by regime on #Homs

BREAKING: A students demonstration in Al-Haj Atef Sq. was dispersed when sniper gunfire was used as a scare, #Homs #Syria

Defected soldiers in this video join the Free Syrian Army in #Hooleh (Hula) of #Homs #Syria

Heavy & random gunfire and occasional bombing from AlKurdiyeh school checkpoint towards residential areas east of #Talbisa #Homs #Syria

#Rastan significant numbers of Shabiha (Armed Militias) killed by defected soldiers protecting the city from the vicious attack #Homs #Syria

Most areas in #Homs r now isolated from the outside world smoke plagues the skies as government thugs and military continue onslaught #Syria

1349 GMT: According to the voices, and the description of this video, this shows fires burning as a result of the Syrian military "bombing" the Bayada district of Homs proper, near a school (approximate location of neighborhood):

1343 GMT: The Guardian describes this video:

School boys, dressed in uniform with satchels over their backs, were among those being arrested by the Syrian army in the southern town of Deraa today, according to video footage from activists.

1339 GMT: This report was made by activist Alexander Page (pseudonym) who is reporting from Syria:

#Homs 10 soldiers defect from Military checkpoints in #Talbisa upon getting news of Assad's assualt on #Rastan #Syria

1334 GMT: Fires burn in Homs, Syria. This video claims that security and "Shabiha" have started these fires. There are reports that the entire city is under attack, as deserted soldiers who have taken refuge in the city are hunted by the military:

1324 GMT: Anti-Qaddafi forces have been pinned down by snipers and artillery fire in a roundabout approximately 2 kilometers from the center of Sirte, Qaddafi's hometown. According to Reuters, it's unlikely that we'll see the NTC fighters take the city today:

"Gaddafi forces have placed a lot of snipers around the roundabout and it is not easy for us to advance forward until we get rid of the snipers," said Ahmed Saleh, an NTC fighter there.

Explosions of artillery rounds and exchanges of small arms fire could be heard from the roundabout. NATO warplanes, which have been pounding targets in Sirte to clear the way for NTC forces to enter, were flying overhead.

1303 GMT: James Miller takes the wheel.

The Guardian has spoken with journalist Tom Finn, in Sana'a, Yemen, where he witnessed thousands of protesters, surrounded and protected by thousands of defected soldiers under the command of General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar. President Saleh has accused the General of using the protesters as "cannon fodder," a claim that has only made them angrier:

1135 GMT: Despite figures from its own electoral authority pointing to a 17.4% turnout for Saturday's by-elections, Bahrain's media outlets and officials keep putting out a different figure in the hope that people will believe the legend. From the Gulf Daily News:

The legitimacy of Bahrain's parliament stems from the people who were determined to practise their democratic right despite threats and intimidation, a top official said yesterday.

This was proven with 51.4 per cent of Bahrainis casting their votes overall at last year's general election and this year's by-election, said Justice, Islamic Affairs and Endowments Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa.

This was despite failed attempts to sabotage and disrupt the elections, said Shaikh Khalid, who is also the High Elections Committee president....

"Bahrain's elections percentage is higher than many other way-ahead democratic countries and shows that the boycott was a failure with its effect just being 16.3pc derailing the original percentage of 67.7pc," said the minister.

1135 GMT: Britain launches a new front in its efforts with the Assad regime, as the British Ambassador to Syria, Simon Collis, writes:

Last weekend I decided to start this blog after Syria passed a terrible milestone. The Syrians have now endured six months of unrest and violent suppression of mostly peaceful protests. As they now look towards the next six months with a mixture of uncertainty, fear and hope, I wanted to share some personal impressions about what’s happening. Some thoughts about why it’s happening. And maybe to spark some debate about what comes next and what can be done.

In doing so I am privileged. Because I can. The last six months have shown the Syrians can too. But in doing so, they face censorship, threats and arbitrary arrest.

The Syrian regime doesn’t want you to know that its security forces and the gangs that support them are killing, arresting and abusing mostly peaceful protesters: The UN says over 2,700 people have died in the last six months, some of them under torture in prison. It doesn’t want you to know that it is preventing many from meeting peacefully to discuss reform. It wants you to hear only one version of the truth – its own. And to see only one way out – the return to authoritarian rule where fear surpasses a desire for freedom. This is a regime that remains determined to control every significant aspect of political life in Syria. It is used to power. And it will do anything to keep it.

1130 GMT: Letta Tayler, writing in Foreign Affairs, portrays "Yemen's Hijacked Revolution":

Initially inspired by revolts in Tunisia and Egypt, students and other protesters began taking to the streets in cities across Yemen in January. They demanded greater democratic freedoms, an end to corruption and poverty, and the resignation of [President] Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for 33 years. They are the public faces of the movement -- and they are also the primary victims of the violence the government has unleashed in response. State security forces and pro-government assailants have killed at least 225 protesters and bystanders during largely peaceful demonstrations, with dozens left dead in recent days alone.Had influential governments such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia moved swiftly, they might have pressured Saleh to heed the protesters' calls. Instead, the international community dithered as Saleh feigned interest in a deal to step down from power. By June, when Saleh was badly wounded by an assassination attempt and fled to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment, the world's attention was already turning to uprisings in Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and elsewhere. Yemen's pro-democracy protests became overshadowed by a power play among the three top contenders to run the country: General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, a renegade army commander who was once the president's confidant; Hamid al-Ahmar (no relation), a billionaire entrepreneur from the prominent Hashid tribe; and Saleh's eldest son, Ahmed, who leads the elite Republican Guard.

General al-Ahmar and Hamid al-Ahmar threw their weight behind the protest movement early on: the general with his soldiers, and the businessman, by many media accounts, with his wallet. Yet it should be said that both men are entrenched in the very power structure that the protesters hope to uproot. Fending them off during the president's nearly four-month convalescence in Riyadh was Ahmed Saleh, whose Republican Guard has led many of the attacks on largely peaceful protesters. The onetime heir apparent to his father, Ahmed Saleh is an old rival of General al-Ahmar.

This internecine battle of the elites has not just displaced the grassroots coalition of young people and activists whose demonstrations first put pressure on Saleh; it has also sidelined Yemen's weak but functional political parties and parliament, as well as its resilient civil-society movement -- all of which are potential building blocks for a new, democratic Yemen.

Journalist Tom Finn quickly counters, "Yemen's uprising has not been 'hijacked', rather a blurring of lines between protest movement, military & tribal elites."

1110 GMT: The Bahrain State news agency has given its version of the meeting in New York between the Bahraini and Iranian Foreign Ministers. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it does not present the line of Irnaian media that Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid ibn Ahmad Al Khalifa "has asked for Iran to help [Bahrain] resolve [its] current crisis".

At the same time, it does not appear that Bahrain is going to exploit the opening to proclaim Iranian interference in its internal affairs, instead using the occasion for a pointed reminder that everyone should stay out of Bahrain's political business (and, wittingly or unwittingly, supporting Tehran's message on the same lines):

The discussions touched on the situation in the region and the Kingdom of Bahrain interest regarding issues that would maintain security and stability in the region that must be based on the principles of good neighbourliness, non-interference in the internal affairs of States and the principles of international law and conventions.

(Cross-posted from Iran LiveBlog)

0945 GMT: Yemen's Minister of Defense Mohammad Nasser Ahmad Ali has survived an assassination attempt by a suicide bomber in the southern port city of Aden. Ten members of his entourage were hurt.

A security official said, "A suicide bomber driving a car packed with explosives drove into the minister's motorcade as he was driving out of a tunnel."

0915 GMT: Ahram Online offers a useful overview of the current strikes by teachers, doctors, and transport workers, "Who Did Not Work in Egypt and What Did They Win?"

0835 GMT: In Libya, a commander of troops fighting for the National Transitional Council has said that they have seized control of the port in Sirte, one of the last two strongholds of former leader Muammar Qaddafi.

"There were clashes in the night and we now are controlling the port," said Commander Mustafa bin Dardef of the Zintan brigade.

The NTC fighters moved into the eastern part of the town on Monday, with clashes with Qaddafi loyalists two kilometres (1.25 miles) from the town centre.

0645 GMT: Activists in Bahrain hoped to cause another slow-down on the roads this morning in the "Chain of Dignity" protests. An EA source checks in, "30 min more than the usual time to reach to work, 10 min more than yesterday where it took me 20 min more."

On the Mina Salman Highway:

0625 GMT: The Daily Telegraph of London carries a claimed first-hand report, by a writer using the pseudonym "Hussein al Haqq", from the conflict inside Rastan in Syria (see 0515 GMT):

Armed opposition groups have taken to building barricades against the onslaught. And according to residents many parts of Al Rastan have become no-go zones with skirmishes and military raids a daily occurrence.

The much feared "shabiha" --- pro-Assad militias --- storm houses, hunting defected soldiers and arresting suspected dissidents as they go – "looking for reasons to kill", one resident said. Government snipers sit atop local security headquarters during the day, picking off those who venture too close, whilst at night more random shootings follow.

All public services in Rastan have been cut --– including the vitally important schools. With nowhere to go during the day, children have in some cases become helpless targets.

One father wept as he recounted how a bullet meant for him had passed through his shoulder and into the head of his five-year-old son....

The battle in Al Rastan is not totally one sided. Despite facing such force – 60 tanks and armoured vehicles were reported to be on the city’s fringes yesterday – man people refuse to run from the gunfire.

A mid week evening protest last week was free from government interference such is the level of security the opposition has managed to establish in some areas. 'They know not to come here,’ one member asserted as he observed the crowd. "We have hundreds of fighters coming from all over Syria to help us.

The government keeps talking about armed gangs. Well we do have weapons, but we use them to protect ourselves. The army has launched a war against its own people --- even more tanks lie in wait outside the city. We know its going to be hard but we can’t give up now --- we’ve come too far."

0555 GMT: Hours after hacktivists struck 12 websites linked to the Syrian regime and local governments, the "Syrian Electronic Army" replaced the home page of Harvard University with an image of Syria's President Bashar Assad, accompanied by an image of Assad in military uniform and a message accusing the US of supporting the uprising and threatening retaliation by Syria's "23 million mobile bomb".

The Syrian Electronic Army says it is not affiliated with the Syrian government, but researcher Helmi Noman says that technical research establishes "that the domain name of their website was registered in May 2011 by Syrian Computer Society which was headed by President Assad in the 1990s before he became president. Our technical investigation also shows that the Army's official website is hosted by SCS-NET, the ISP arm of Syrian Computer Society."

In June, Assad expressed his appreciation for the SEA as as a real army in virtual reality.

0515 GMT: It is a given, in each of the political and military crises in North Africa and the Middle East, that the regime will blame "foreign instigation/interference/intervention". Ben Ali made the allegation in Tunisia, Mubarak broadcast it in Egypt. It was Qaddafi's theme in Libya, and its Iran-coloured image is an essential for the Bahraini system. 

So it goes for Syria: in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, Walid Moallem said, "We deeply regret the surge in the activities of armed groups in Syria, which have not waned and instead continued to spiral. The presence of these groups ... is the manifestation of foreign intervention."

Moualem said the regime's reforms "had to take a back seat to other priorities. Our overriding priority was facing the external pressures which were at times tantamount to blatant conspiracies."

Meanwhile, the Syrian military continued its escalation in Homs Province, reportedly moved troops, supported by dozens of tanks, armoured vehicles, and helicopters, into Rastan.

The domestic intervention followed reports that four military defectors had been killed by security forces amidst widespread protests and a two-day siege of the town of 40,000  on the highway to Turkey near Homs.

Meanwhile in Homs, a rally sings, "The heart of the Army has died":

A gathering Palmyra in the centre, "Your silence is killing us":