Syria Special: #MediaFail --- It's Not Yet a Civil War

On Tuesday, EA was the first credible news agency in the English language to confirm that some elements of the Syrian opposition had begun to use force against the regime's military forces. Soldiers who had defected and joined the protesters, the "Free Syrian Army", had begun to fire back, in self-defence, in the city of al-Rastan in Homs Province. In Kanaker, a major suburb of Damascus, we had footage of members of the opposition, perhaps deserting soldiers, throwing Molotov cocktails at the Syrian army.

Although less reputable news sources (the Russia Today, Syrian and Iranian state-run agencies) had previously claimed violent incidents, this was the first appearance of a fight-back by organised elements of the opposition. These were not fringe individual actors. These were not conversations about armed resistance. That resistance resistance had begun.

This could be the start of a battle within. Indeed, on Wednesday we titled EA's coverage on Syria "A Libyan-style Civil War?"

But note the question mark. Even as EA broke the news on Tuesday, I had offered this assessment:

In most parts of Syria, it doesn't look like anything has changed at all. We saw large, peaceful protests in many areas of the country. It did appear that the protests were larger than they have been in recent memory, perhaps signalling a renewed commitment to resistance. If some members of the opposition have taken up arms against the regime, while large peaceful protests continue, the human cost of this conflict could escalate rapidly.

So while we were the first to post news of the violence, we may be the first to recognize that a Libyan-style civil war is still a long way off, warranting our question mark yesterday. Yestreday I wrote:

There are reports of more violence in al Rastan, Homs, where a major military campaign has been raging for several days against defected soldiers, who have reportedly fired back. However, despite our own reporting of this event, and despite main stream speculation that the country is headed towards a civil war, or even a failed state, the largest effect so far seems to be larger peaceful protests, a renewal of the same movement that we've seen for 6 months. Widespread protests, many of which reportedly involve students and professionals, have again taken place in many cities.

Fears of sectarian violence, a failed state, or Syria turning into another Iraq are overblown. There is almost no evidence to support any of these claims being made by Syrian "experts". Many "analysts" upon whom the media and Western governments rely upon are expatriates. In some cases, they are relying on their experience of what "was" rather than the evidence of what "is".

I have said it before, and I will likely have to say it again, the evidence of sectarianism in Syria is scant. We heard these concerns in Egypt, and they turned out to be exaggerated. We heard these reports in Libya, and there is little evidence that they have come to pass. If these "experts" were right, the Mubarak government would never have fallen in 18 days, there would be no protests in Bahrain, and Libya and Syria would already be an Iraq-style bloodbath.

It has not happened. It may happen, but right now there is no evidence that it will happen.

Sticking to the confirmed facts: so far we see renewed protests across the country, peaceful protests that are larger in scale and scope than we have seen in recent weeks. The protests involve more students and professionals than we saw even a month ago. Sanctions have begun to have devastating effect, and with Turkey's announcement yesterday that they too will heavily sanction the Assad government, expect that trend to intensify.