Syria Special: The State of the Uprising --- The Insurrection

Soldiers of the Free Syrian Army prepare to do battle with regime forces in Zabadani on 16 January --- that night, the bulk of the regime's military withdrew from the town

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Editor's Note: This is the second of a multi-part series by James Miller assessing the situation in Syria. The first piece focused on the state of the protest movement. Later topics will include the economy, bombings and "terrorism", and the prospects for ending the crisis, including foreign intervention.

See also Syria Special: The State of the Uprising, 10 Months On --- The Protests

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I began writing this article on Tuesday, but I soon found myself overtaken by events. After weeks of forward progress and significant gains, the Free Syrian Army is finally looking like an organised and militarised wing of the Syrian opposition, one with significant support throughout the country.

As I was trying to put final touches to the analysis, the news broke that the Free Syrian Army had fought the pro-Assad army to a standstill in Zabadani, just 20 miles northwest of the capital, Damascus, with the regime's military agreeing to a cease-fire. When I went to bed, the opposition was preparing to declare Zabadani the first liberated city in Syria.

Everything I had written was obsolete.

The cease-fire was broken by noon the next day, but by the end of Wednesday there were reports that after losing more tanks the regular army had begun its withdrawal from Zabadani.

By Thursday, EA received a video showing an impressive amount of armoured vehicles pulling out of the city. Somehow, a few hundred defected soldiers had managed to pose enough of a threat, and to destroy enough tanks, to convince the Assad forces to pull back.

By the end of Thursday, EA confirmed that in yet another town, Kafer Takharum, in Idlib Province near the border with Turkey, the Free Syrian Army had reached a cease-fire agreement with the regular army.

Syrian defectors now held two towns and had proven that they were, effectively, an insurgency capable of victories over the Assad regime. And beyond this, there were reports of substantial gains by the insurgents, in nearly every region. There have been confirmed reports of the Free Syrian Army destroying tanks in Hama, Daraa Province, Idlib Province, and in towns near Damascus.

Many experts and journalists have been sceptical of the capabilities of the Free Syrian Army. There have been articles about disunity, units of defectors operating under different banners, and the lack of political structure behind the opposition. However, the Syrian National Council has restructured to align itself with the FSA, and last Friday's protests around the country were held in support of the opposition's military forces. With the addition of a defecting Brigadier General, and the significant victories of the last week, the FSA has proven that it is much stronger than its critics have claimed.

No, the Assad regime is not on the verge of collapse. And no, these victories will not likely be permanent. The President's military has not yet unleashed the fury of its air power. However, the events of this week prove that the Free Syrian Army is gaining significant momentum, and at least for the moment the regime does not appear to have a coherent strategy to deal with this the surge. Instead, its withdrawal from the two towns only likely to embolden the opposition.

Why did the regular army leave?

There is a pattern which may hold a clue. Over several weeks, we have noticed that reports of defections increase during battles, with many defecting soldiers and officials telling the same tale --- more troops are ready to join the insurgency, but they are scared of the consequences.

If you are a soldier, already on the fence about your loyalty to the Assad regime, then a situation where your life is at risk at the hands of the opposition may tip your decision. If so, the Syrian regime is faced with a dilemma: the more it battles the opposition, the more losses it takes --- and those losses are not just casualties but defections.

An incident from Hama on Thursday: Aacording to the opposition, a group of Syrian soldiers were ordered to shoot civilians, and were told that they would be shot if they refused. They turned on the other troops, killing a Brigadier General in the process.

The opposition's victories of this week may be temporary, leaving an importance which is more symbolic than strategic. However, in an insurrection that is struggling to win the confidence of the international community and that requires more internal confidence to win more defectors to its cause, symbolism may be enough.