The Latest from Iran (22 January): The Currency Slide

The new Iranian banknote: President Ahmadinejad's "Many Thousand Rials"

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2115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Al Arabiya reports that prominent Arab singer, Ghalib Manabi, and his brother Hassan have been arrested in Ahwaz in southern Iran.

Ghalib Manabi and several members of his family are known for their activism challenging regime programmes allegedly designed to reduce ethnic Arabs to a minority in the region. Members were previously arrested in 2005 during an uprising by ethnic Arabs against a programme requisitioning land from Arabs in Ahwaz, with a government-directed migration of non-Arabs into the region.

Local sources told Al Arabiya that about 60 Arab-speaking activists have been arrested since November 2011.

2025 GMT: Questioning the Supreme Leader. Another former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander has supported the article by ex-commander Hossein Alaei implicitly warning the Supreme Leaders of the consequences of repression.

Gholamali Rajaee said that Alaei's critique was one that must be answered and asked, "What is illegal about it?"

Rajaee went farther in criticising the attacks on figures such as Ataollah Mohajerani, Abdolkarim Soroush, and Mohsen Kadivar tat forced them to leave the country. He said that instead of seizing the pen of critics like Alaei, filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad, and physician Mehdi Khazali, officials should act properly to stop criticism.

1805 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Aftab suggests that the interrogation of the President by Parliament is more likely, as four of six committees have been satisfied with the answers they have been given by ministers.

1735 GMT: Elections Watch. More news on Guardian Council decisions on candidates for March's Parliamentary elections (see also 0842 GMT)....

Several reformists, including MP Dariush Ghanbari, have been reinstated after they were barred by the Ministry of Interior. However, Nader Ghazipour, the Oroumiyeh MP who protested against the destruction of Lake Oroumiyeh (Urmia), remains disqualified, as does Abdolajabbar Karami.

1635 GMT: Currency Watch. Both the Bazar Dispatch economics blog and the portal Balatarin carry the claim that the Iranian Rial has fallen by more than 5% today, breaking the 20000:1 level vs. the US dollar. If true, this means the Rial has sunk almost 10% in two days.

The currency website Mesghal, the usual outlet for rates in Iran, has not been updated since yesterday.

Balatarin also claims that an old gold coin is now priced at more than 1,000,000 Toman (about $500), which would be a rise of 7.5% on top of the 18% increase on Saturday.

1435 GMT: Picture of the Day. A snow sculpture at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Tehran University makes a Green statement:

1415 GMT: The Battle Within. We noted earlier that the pro-Ahmadinejad Raha Press has taken on Fars, reportedly linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, after Fars published an article criticising the President's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Well, there's more. Raha has also used the controversy over the "Alaei article" to go after the Revolutionary Guards.

In an article two weeks ago, former IRGC commander Hossein Alaei implicitly warned the Supreme Leader about the consequences of repression. Current Guards commanders subsequently wrote two letters chastising Alaei as an agent of the enemy.

Raha says the second letter of the commanders "invalidates trust" in the Guards and "proves the depth of disgrace" of its leadership.

1350 GMT: Who Needs Dollars Anyway? Iran's Ambassador to Russia, Reza Sajjadi, has said Tehran and Moscow have started trading in their domestic currencies, bypassing the US dollar.

Sajjadi insisted that direct trade in the Rial and ruble would deal with the difficulties of US-led sanctions, "We started this work long ago. Iranian businessmen are buying products in Russia and are using the rouble as (payment) currency....The U.S. dollar has nosupport base."

1340 GMT: Currency Watch. How serious is Iran's currency crisis? Well, Fars not only noted that the price for gold topped 900,000 Toman yesterday --- it was 930,000 Toman by the end of the day (see 0610 GMT) --- it added the criticism that the Government is "in hibernation".

Aftab notes that President Ahmadinejad has not reacted to the currency turmoil in any of his nine public appearances and speeches during the past two weeks.

1120 GMT: Press Watch. Habil electronic magazine has been banned because of "criminal content".

1020 GMT: Economy Watch. Tabnak reports that mutton is becoming scarce in Tehran. Etedaal reports that, with the devaluation of the Iranian currency, producers would rather export --- legally and illegally --- to Arab States, while imports, especially from Pakistan, are becoming more expensive.

1012 GMT: Labour Front. The Observatory for the Protection of Human Rights Defenders has called for action over the recent harassment and arrest of trade unionists, including Shahrokh Zamani, Mohammad Jarrahi, and Sheys Amani.

0912 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that 8000 detainees in Evin Prison are suffering harsh conditions, including no heating, cold water, and lack of medical care.

HRANA reports that reformist journalist Shahram Manoochehri was arrested last Thursday in Tehran. He was the fifth journalist seized in four days.

0842 GMT: Elections Watch. Mehr reports that three prominent critics of President Ahmadinejad --- MPs Ali Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, and Ali Abbaspour --- have been approved by the Guardian Council to stand in March's Parliamentary election.

The three men had been barred in the initial review by the Ministry of Interior.

0838 GMT: Economy Watch. The Associated Press profiles another casualty of Iran's economic difficulties --- smugglers:

Business is sharply down, the middlemen and boat crews say, as the slumping Iranian currency leaves fewer customers for the smuggled wares. At the same time, the risks of interception are higher as Iranian authorities step up patrols near the strategic oil tanker lanes at the mouth of the Gulf.

"We used to make two or three trips across every day. Now, it's maybe one," said an Iranian middleman.

Der Spiegel has a different view: "The West's sanctions against Iran have made it harder for people there to get their hands on various luxury goods. But, for the inhabitants of a tiny Omani port just across the Strait of Hormuz, the sanctions have been a goldmine."

0828 GMT: The Battle Within. The pro-Ahmadinejad Raha Press takes on Fars News, claiming it has been reduced to an "amateur site" because it is ruled by "media dwarves" and is "insane with its inferiority complex".

The Raha attack was prompted by an article in Fars, often said to be link to the Revolutionary Guards, on President Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Raha also claims that the recent sentencing of Presidential advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr to two separate one-year prison terms is a prelude to Parliament's attempt to destroy Ahmadinejad.

0825 GMT: Not-So-Tough-Talk Alert. Aftab tries to explain the softening of the Iranian military's rhetoric on the US presence in the Persian Gulf (see 0655 GMT) by declaring that the American carriers being sent to the area are "outdated".

0731 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The European Union is scheduled on Monday to declare a suspension of oil imports from Iran, but diplomats say that Greece is pressing for last-minute changes to the announcement.

Athens wants the EU ban to be phased in over eight months, as alternative supplies are arranged. Reports have indicated the EU will authorise a six-month "grace period" before the ban takes effect.

Greece is also negotiating over the terms of a review of the ban which will take place after two or three months of implementation.

Beyond the ban on imports, the EU will impose a partial asset freeze on the Central Bank of Iran. It also plans to ban the transfer from Iran to Europe of gold and precious metals, stopping the regime selling these assets for foreign currency amidst its current economic difficulties.

0724 GMT: Economy Watch. Asr-e Iran crosses its fingers, "Hopefully we do not become the Zimbabwe of the Middle East." The website invokes the story from the Qur'an of the "Seven Sleepers" who woke up and realised their coins were worthless.

0704 GMT: Questioning the Supreme Leader. An interesting development in the affair of former MP Emad Afrough, who said last Sunday that people should be able to question the Supreme Leader and dismiss him if the answers were not suitable....

A student movement, declaring it is "pro-Islamic Republic" and "justice-seeking", has condemned attacks on Afrough after his appearance on State TV. It said that some people, using the pretext of "holy terms", call any justified criticism an attack on Iran's system of velayat-e faqih (clerical supremacy).

0700 GMT: Oil Watch. China's General Administration of Customs reported that crude-oil imports from Iran in 2011 were up 30% from 2010, reaching 27.76 million metric tons or 557,000 barrels per day.

That is a significant jump, given that China's overall crude imports were up just 6.1%, but it has already been overshadowed by political and economic changes in 2012. Chinese oil imports from Iran have been halved in January, purportedly because of a dispute over payment arrangements.

0655 GMT: Not-So-Tough-Talk Alert. Revolutionary Guard Deputy Commander Hossein Salami, in remarks carried by State news agency IRNA, backed away on Saturday from a threat of reaction if the US sent an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf.

Salami said, "U.S. warships and military forces have been in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East region for many years and their decision in relation to the dispatch of a new warship is not a new issue and it should be interpreted as part of their permanent presence."

At the start of January, amidst a 10-day naval exercise, the head of the army, General Ataollah Salehi, said, "I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf. We are not in the habit of warning more than once."

The reason for the shift in rhetoric is not clear. I am far from convinced by Reuters' speculation, "The apparently conciliatory comments may be a response to the European Union and Washington's rejection of Iran's declaration it was close to resuming negotiations with world powers and with the Pentagon saying it did not expect any challenge to its warships."

More likely, if we are to speculate, is that the toning down of the military's language is linked to the promotion of forthcoming nuclear talks by leading Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, rather than any supposed rejection by the "West".

The shift may also be for the ears of countries like China and Russia, as Iran tries to stave off a tightening of US-led sanctions.

0625 GMT: Elections Watch. Meanwhile, a bit of a mystery on the political front....

Iranian authorities had said the Guardian Council, the body supervising Parliamentary elections for March, would make the final rulings on Saturday on which candidates would be allowed to run. This morning, there is still no news in Iranian media of the judgements.

The Ministry of Interior has rejected some high-profile figures among the 5400 applicants. More than 30 current MPs were turned away, including leading critics of President Ahmadinejad such as Ali Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, and Ali Abbaspour.

0610 GMT: After an academic break on Saturday, there is much news from Iran to consider. However, the lead story is clear.

After a temporary, artificial levelling, the Iranian Rial has resumed its slide. It fell 5.5% on Saturday, reaching 19000:1 vs. the US dollar. The Rial is almost 50% weaker than in September, when the Central Bank made its last significant intervention to hold the rate. 

That intervention, at least through injections of foreign currency, no longer appears possible. And Saturday's developments expose failure of propaganda and pressure --- the Central Bank's "ordered" open-market rate of 14000:1, supported by the blocking of websites and threatened arrests of currency traders, is long gone.

The even larger development may be the flight of Iranians from currency into gold. The price of gold coin has been steadily rising all month, but on Saturday it jumped 18%, with old coin now at 930,000 Toman (about $480) and new coin at 922,000 Toman (about $475).