US Elections Analysis: A 4-Point Guide to Gingrich's South Carolina Victory

See also US Elections Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC "Interpreting Gingrich's Win in South Carolina"
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US Elections Analysis: How Protests Over Campaign Finance and Ron Paul Could Change The Race

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1. The immediate significance is that the race, which might have been effectively finished by victories for Mitt Romney in South Carolina and in Florida on 31 January, is now very much alive. 

The issue, as we noted after the New Hampshire primary, was whether we would get a meaningful "Romney v. Someone Who Is Not Romney" contest. With Rick Perry dropping out of the campaign and supporting Gingrich, the prospect rose of "red-meat Republicans" --- those espousing tough, conservative lines on social issues --- to rally behind a single challenger to Romney. The question is now whether Rick Santorum, the unexpected winner in the Iowa caucus at the start of the month, will also step aside and back Gingrich.

2. Some observers, including the BBC anchorwoman iwith whom I spoke this morning, expressed surprise that Gingrich had triumphed despite the recent revelations about his infidelities, including his request to his second wife (whom he soon left) that they have an "open marriage".

Don't be. All it takes in politics to turn around the damage is a successful diversion blaming someone else. Gingrich found it in the South Carolina debates in his attacks on the "elites" and the "media". 

Newt had stumbled badly before Iowa when he was too full-frontal in his assault on Romney, coupled with some over-emotive crying on camera. This time, his forces found the trick --- especially in South Carolina, a conservative state with a reputation for gutter politics --- by linking their assault on Mitt with the tearing-down of caricatured enemies.

Thus, Romney was chastised for daring to be Governor of Massachusetts, a "liberal" state, and for daring to speak French --- the same charge that was labelled by George W. Bush's forces in 2004 against the Democratic challenger John Kerry. And, beyond that, South Carolinians could trust that a vote for Gingrich was a vote against the politicians in Washington --- even though Gingrich was a politician in Washington --- the elites in New York, and the depraved US television networks (even though Fox News is probably going to line up its fair-and-objective coverage behind Newt.

3. It worked in South Carolina, but will it work in other states?

If this victory ensures a significant battle past the end of January, it is doubtful that it marks the ascendancy of Gingrich. South Carolina can bolster struggling campaigns, as with George W. Bush in 2000, but it can't make them. 

Gingrich is going to have to prove that his negative, attack-dog conservatism can last in many other states. Florida, with its diverse mix of residents --- in not just country of origin, but state of origin; in cultural background; and in income --- will be an intriguing snapshot. But Newt will not just have to do well there. He will have to find some traction in the Northern states and out West. 

I doubt the big states like New York and California --- which are home to some of the dreaded "elites" --- are going to be too friendly to the Gingrich message. So he is going to have his make his mark in the "Rust Belt" areas such as Ohio and Michigan, in the Midwest, and in Texas (the home of Governor Rick Perry).

4. President Obama's team won big last night.

I think Romney has enough finances and influence to prevail in the Republican contest, but he is going to have spend some of that capital now, instead of banking it for the autumn campaign against Obama. And he will do so in a campaign which is going to be nasty --- already, his camp are getting down-and-dirty in response to Gingrich.

That negative approach, for all the short-term appeal of using deviant liberals as a dartboard, could well leave a nasty taste. And that in turn will play into the Democratic strategy of portraying Obama as the calm, measured, positive leader of America.