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Thursday
Nov012012

The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Battle Begins over Ahmadinejad in Parliament

2027 GMT: Trade Watch. Iranian Consul General Muhammad Hossain Bani Assadi, speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry, has said Tehran is ready to start barter trade with Pakistan to bypass problems with banking channels amid sanctions.

2017 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A photograph from Monday of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani with his son Mehdi Hashemi, moved from prison to hospital for an angiography --- Mehdi Hashemi, arrested in September on his return from a three-year exile in Britain, faces charges of financial and electoral manipulation:

1937 GMT: US-Iran Talks Watch. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, has denied the claim that the top advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, visited the US for back-channel talks on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Boroujerdi said the assertion was a propagandistic “news bomb” before the US Presidential election.

We have found no support for the report of Velayati's talks in New York; however, EA sources in Iran have revealed that Velayati met American officials in Qatar in early October.

1930 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The daily Hamshahri reports that the cost of baby milk has doubled recently from about 60,000 Rials (about $4.80 at official rate) to almost 120,000 Rials per tin.

Domestically-made baby milk is reportedly still abundant in the market; however, diet milk and milk suitable for children with allergies, imported into Iran, are scarce, and the government has resorted to rationing.

Mohammad Kazem Pour-Kazemi, the deputy head of Iran's Society of Pharmacists, said: "Unfortunately the distribution of diet milk is in an undesirable situation....Despite the increase in prices, people have problems with finding them."

An Iranian mother told BBC Persian that her daughter was taken to hospital because she could not find baby mil:"My daughter had diarrhoea and we had to find a special milk. We looked for it in all pharmacies but they had run out of it."

Another mother told the BBC: "Baby milk is vital for my child. The officials are saying that it doesn't exist in the market any more, pharmacies say they don't have it. What should I do when my child is crying out of hunger?"

1830 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. The deputy head of Iran's armed forces, Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri, has declared that Israel and the US are not capable of military action against the Islamic Republic.

However, has the General, while posing defiantly, given away the possible effectiveness of US-led sanctions in stoking tensions within Iran?

The enemy, having failed in hard war, is trying to get us involved in its soft war. They are trying to preoccupy us with domestic disputes so that they would use the opportunity and pursue their evil ambitions.

1807 GMT: Economy Watch. CBS News notes a sharp increase of airfares --- up to 50% in some cases --- as the Government reduced subsidies.

1048 GMT: Currency Watch. A Twitter message from Tehran from "Our Man in Iran": "Anyone know a site with market prices for the rial? Shops are selling 29,000/$. Too worried to ask street dealers for the cops."

The Rial-to-Dollar rate of 29000:1 at the official exchanges show a stronger Iranian currency than in September, when authorities effectively curtailed the open market; however, the message reinforces our analysis that the trade in foreign currency is still limited to a few exchanges and the Central Bank's "trade room" for importers.

1040 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back from a break for radio and TV work to find Julian Borger of The Guardian reporting on possible contacts between Israeli and Iranian representatives.

The two countries have no formal relationship; however, their officials are taking part in a two-day "academic seminar" on nuclear non-proliferation meeting in Brussels that started Monday.

The officials will be joined by representatives from about 10 Arab states, the US, and European nations to explore the possibility of a UN-sponsored conference for a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction.

The Israeli team is led by Jeremy Issacharoff, an ambassador for strategic affairs at the Foreign Ministry, while the chief Iranian representative is Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

0650 GMT: On Sunday, in an unexpected step, the Parliament began consideration of a petition by 77 MPs to question President Ahmadinejad. If the initiative is approved, Ahmadinejad will have a month to address challenges about the Government's handling of the economy, imports, and the curreny crisis.

Iranian media add detail that brings out the complexity and possible intensity of the fight. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani put forth the caution that he has not received "any order from the Supreme Leader of the Revolution concerning this issue". That indicates that Ayatollah Khamenei's camp could still intervene, as it did last month over a petition by 102 MPs, to block the interrogation.

Significantly, however, this was not enough for pro-Ahmadinejad MPs who believe that those pursuing the interrogation have overriden Khamenei or at least brought his silence. Ahmadinejad loyalist Mehdi Kouchakzadeh said, "The Leader is not inclined towards a questioning session in present circumstances. Had the decision been the Supreme Leader of the Revolution's, he would have decided against it." Kouchakzadeh then threatened to leave the Parliament building if questioning was "imposed" on Ahmadinejad.

Larijani's response was telling, both in its indication that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision about the interrogation and in its challenge to the pro-Ahmadinejad group:

You can't say that the Leader said that....You have your opinion and others have other views... If the gentlemen desire to leave the session, it would not be the right thing to do....You receive salary to be present here. You can't use such pretexts to leave. This is wrong, and I am telling you: If anyone leaves the building unauthorized he has committed a mistake.

And then the President's supporters put down their own marker. Kouchakzadeh and 18 other MPs left the chamber. 

(Hat tip: Iran Tracker)

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