Iran Snap Analysis: The Supreme Leader --- Strong Abroad, Weak at Home

The Latest from Iran (3 February): The Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer

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Even during the Supreme Leader's speech, US and British press were picking out his lines about Iran standing "with any group in the world who wants to fight the Zionist regime" and his warning that any war "would be 10 times more detrimental to the US" than to Iran.

If that is the line of coverage today --- reinforcing the chatter about war circulating in the US media and political circles --- it will miss three far more important dimensions of the Supreme Leader's speech:

1. RELYING ON THE THREAT: The strongest part of Ayatollah Khamenei's speech, both in delivery and its reception by the crowd, was his portrayal of a defiant Islamic Republic standing up to the sanctions and threats of war and standing with others who are oppressed in the Middle East.

And this, ironically, where he will get support from the international reaction focusing on an imminent conflict: the Supreme Leader is relying on the "foreign threat" to hold together support for the regime, given internal difficulties (see point 3).

2. A POLITICAL CONTEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: The talk about military threats and conflicts is likely to miss the Supreme Leader's real challenge to the "West". With the section of his speech on the "Arab Spring" and with the later sermon in Arabic, he was at times lecturing, at times appealing to listeners from Morocco to Bahrain to stand with Tehran against the aggression of the US, its allies, and Israel.

That was especially notable with respect to Egypt, where Ayatollah Khamenei expended much energy and time in detailing historical background and his analysis of the present to set out a strategy. The regime will support the Muslim Brotherhood as the "moderate Islam" which will lead Cairo, not only rejecting liberalism and "secular Islam" but also the Salafists who are the second-strongest force in post-Mubarak Egypt.

3. FALTERING OVER INTERNAL PROBLEMS: If the Supreme Leader was firm in his presentation of the overseas front, he was fumbling and on the point of weakness over Iran's political and economic tensions.

Ayatollah Khamenei said next to nothing about the problems with inflation, unemployment, and currency besetting Iran. He did venture, however, a specific section on the forthcoming Parliamentary elections.

The initial part of this was straightforward, even if it did tip off how serious division has been within the establishment. Khamenei asked politicians and officials to stop "the blame game" and to unite. He said he would be the ultimate authority in dealing with any issues.

But then the Supreme Leader risked that authority. In a curious passage, he almost pleaded with not only the Iranian people but also politicians --- not just reformists but also conservatives and principlists --- to support the elections.

Khamenei tipped off his concern about a low turnout, declaring that "credit, power, and immunity" lay in participation. More importantly, he tipped off problems over the Guardian Council's approval of candidates, asking those who are rejected to accept the decision so as not to aid the "enemy".

That passage, which was far from brief, raises questions about the Supreme Leader's position versus political factions, in particular, those around President Ahmadinejad. Is Khamenei saying that the Guardian Council will strike at the Ahmadinejad camp and that they need to accept its (and his) authority? Or is he worried that the Guardian Council, facing pressure from the President's supporters, will turn aside candidates who would challenge Ahmadinejad?