EA WorldView

1746 GMT: Threat of the Day. According to Aftab, President Ahmadinejad has said at a private meeting with politicians, "I have two 45-minute tapes on my desk from a political meeting on 8 Bahman 1388 (28 January 2010) that prove sedition against the Government and [Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar] Rahim-Mashai."

What could be on those tapes? Well, here is what EA reported, in an exclusive story, on 23 January:

Sometime after the demonstrations of Ashura (27 December), three well-placed Iranian politicians met to discuss current events. The protests, with their scenes of violence and, in some cases, the retreat of Iranian security forces before the opposition, had been unsettling, raising fears not only that the challenge would persist but that the authority of the Government might collapse.

The three men were 1) Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament; 2) Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard, former Presidential candidate, and Secretary of the Expediency Council; and 3) Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Mayor of Tehran.

The meeting reached agreement on a general two-step strategy. First, the crisis with the opposition would be "solved", either through a resolution with its leaders or by finally suppressing it out of existence. Then, there would be a political campaign to get rid of the unsettling influence of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Each of the three men brought not ideas but key groups to the table. Larijani, of course, commanded a good deal of backing in Parliament and was close to the Supreme Leader. Rezaei not only had the background in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps but also, in the Expediency Council, worked with Hashemi Rafsanjani. Qalibaf, although mostly quiet during the post-election crisis, had the base of support from his solid reputation overseeing Tehran.

(It is likely, according to sources, that Rafsanjani knows of the plan, especially given the connection with Rezaei. It is unclear whether the Supreme Leader knows its details.)

1704 GMT: Meeting of the Day. Hmm.... MP Ali Motahari, a prominent critic of the Government, has met in Qom with Grand Ayatollahs Vahid Khorrassani, Safi Golpayegani, Javadi Amoli, and Sobhani, as well as a representative of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani.

Khabar Online says that Motahari --- who was banned by the Ministry of Interior from running in March's Parliamentary ballot before he was reinstated by the Guardian Council --- and the clerics discussed "the critical situation" in elections and the need for a greater role for ayatollahs and clerics in Iran's affairs.

1538 GMT: Currency Watch. Reuters profiles a side-effect of Iran's currency crisis: "Sales of dollars in currency auctions held by Iraq's central rose as high as $400 million on some days in December from a previous average of $150 million, according to central bank data. Many of those dollars were bought by Iraqi traders for resale in Iran and Syria."

After a 25% decline amidst a rise in interest rates, the price for gold coins is beginning to creep up again after the Central Banks stopped pre-sales. Old gold coin is now at 810,000 Toman (about $470) and new gold coin at 804,000 Toman (about $465).

1530 GMT: Economy Watch. Ghanoon says the poverty line has been raised 15-20% by inflation, reaching 960,000 Toman (about $550) per month.

This means that pensioners now only receive 40% of the poverty level in their monthly income (see 0805 GMT).

1440 GMT: Threat of the Day. Minister of Oil Rostam Qassemi has declared, "We will surely cut off oil exports to some European Union countries." He added, in response to US efforts for tightened sanctions and the European Union's suspension of oil imports from Iran from 1 July, that exchange of goods for oil is possible: "We will never retreat."

Qassemi also asked fellow members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries not to raise production to cover any restrictions on Iranian oil. He said, "We expect OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia to respect our rights and keep the market in balance."

Iranian MPs and officials said last week that a bill would suspend oil to European Union members immediately, but the legislation has not yet materialised.

1437 GMT: Blogger and freelance journalist Mehdi Konjareh was arrested in Tehran on Thursday. His whereabouts are unknown.

1428 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini has said that, even if the US dollar reaches 10,000 Toman (100,000 Iranian Rials) on the free market, it will have no effect on the economy.

Hosseini's statement, along with his claim that there is no problem if official foreign exchange traders do not sell dollars, is an effective admission that the Central Bank's attempt to impose a single exchange of 12260 Rials to the US dollar has failed.

The currency website Mesghal claims the effective rate is currently 17510 Rials to the dollar, but this is guesswork, given that most trade is on the black market.

1422 GMT: Cardboard Khomeini Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has criticised the regime's "cheap cardboard propaganda" --- a reference to the cut-out Ayatollah Khomeini paraded from an airplane and before a military ceremony on Wednesday --- while calling for a huge turnout on next Saturday's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution to answer threats and enemies.

1404 GMT: Raising Questions. Ahmad Sadr Haj-Seyed Javadi, the 95-year-old former judge, MP, and Minister of Justice, has written an open letter to the Iranian people, apologising for the unfulfilled promises of the "temporary" Government and advocating democracy as "a doubtless and predetermined necessity".

Javadi was part of the Council of the Islamic Revolution, formed by Ayatollah Khomeini on 12 January to manage the Revolution.

The reformist Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom has said that a critique as well as a celebration of the Revolution is necessary. It cited issues such as unemployment, drugs, cultural oppression, a poor economy, bank fraud, and arrests without charges, including the strict house arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1114 GMT: Writing the Supreme Leader. In his 21st letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad --- detained for months for pursuing the correspondence --- has claimed that billions of dollars have been sent to groups in Afghanistan and Syria as well as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Nourizad called for publication of the expenditure, saying, "People want to be informed....Imam Ali [Shi'a's first Imam] would certainly publish a list."

Chiding the Supreme Leader for the "claimed global desire for the Islamic Revolution", Nourizad asks, "Where else can you, except for China and Russia, who loot our assets?"

1104 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Speak. Yadollah Javani of the Revolutionary Guards' Political Bureau, in a wide-ranging statement, has warned that Iran's answer to an oil embargo will be the closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

On the internal front, Javani said that reformists were running "behind masks" in the Parliamentary elections.

Javani also spoke about opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, held under strict house arrest for almost a year. He claimed that the regime were not avoiding a trial for Mousavi and Karroubi out of weakness; rather this was a measure to bring "transparency to the lies" of the "sedition" after the 2009 Presidential election.

1100 GMT: Currency Watch. Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari has announced the establishment of a single information centre to control distribution of currency to importers.

1055 GMT: Foreign Affairs (British Front). The Ministry of Science and Higher Education, in a clarifying statement, has said that it will still recognise the degrees of students who are currently at British universities. An official said, however, that "from now, no facilities will be given to those who are planning" to study in the United Kingdom.

Earlier this week, Hassan Ghafouri Fard of the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution has put out a statement which could be interpreted as a ruling that the British degrees of present and future students would not be acknowledged.

Ghafouri Fard has now denied the threat and said all degrees will still be recognised.

0815 GMT: All the President's Men. Trouble ahead for Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi?

Iran's judiciary has denied immunity for Mortazavi. Significantly, according to a lawyer, the former Tehran Prosecutor General will have to answer questions not only about his role in a 2008 case in which Abbas Palizdar, supposedly investigating corruption, was himself imprisoned on the charge. Mortazavi may also have to answer for his responsibiity in the summer 2009 case of abuses of detainees at the Kahrizak centre.

0810 GMT: Intimidation Watch. Britain's Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt has followed the BBC Director-General in criticism of Iranian intelligence services for their intimidation of the staff of BBC Persian. The comments follow a case in which a London employee of BBC Persian was forced into an Internet interrogation through the detention of her sister:

I utterly condemn recent reports of Iranian officials harassing families of staff working at the BBC’s Persian service. The Iranian authorities have a shameful track record of using family members to put pressure on Iranian lawyers, journalists and human rights activists. Such deplorable tactics illustrate again the deteriorating human rights situation in Iran, and the desperation of the Iranian regime to silence any independent voices. This comes against the backdrop of intensified jamming of BBC Persian, and other international Persian language satellite broadcasts. The international community has repeatedly called on the Iranian authorities to cease harassment and intimidation of journalists and to prevent illegal jamming of broadcasts. We will continue to do so.

0805 GMT: Economy Watch. Danesh Jafari, an economics professor and the first Minster of Economy in the Ahmadinejad Government, has criticised today's policies: “The current economic crisis, especially in the currency market, is because the Government does not consider the long-term consequences of its decisions."

Parviz Ahmadi Panjaki, the head of the Islamic Pensioner Workers Association, has claimed that 70% of pensioners live under the poverty line. Ahmadi Panjaki said the pensioners receive 400,000 Toman (about $225 monthly), about half of what is needed for subsistence. live under poverty line.

0750 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Speech. More on a possible warning by Ayatollah Khamenei to President Ahmadinejad over any overtures towards the US for nuclear talks, couched in the warning not to believe the "smiling" enemy and criticism of President Obama's letters....

MP Kazem Jalali, the spokesman of Parliament's National Security Committee, said, "The Supreme Leader's warning about US deceptions is pointed towards some of the people in charge, who are giving up against US pressures with their wrong analysis and opinions.”

Mohammad Hossein Safar Harandi, the former Minister of Culture, had also criticised Government diplomacy towards the US in a speech on Thursday.

An EA correspondent notes that these comments follow the Supreme Leader's intervention in the currency crisis, when he met Government officials including 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari, and Minister Shamseddin Hosseini. When the officials blmaed sanctions, Ayatullah Khamenei criticised them and said that "our weaknesses in management" should not be covered up by the international pressures.

0630 GMT: Most of the international coverage of the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer in Tehran was incomplete, narrowed into presentation of the Islamic Republic v. the US-led "West".

Reuters' lead on Ayatollah Khamenei was that "Iran would retaliate over Western-backed oil sanctions and any threat of attack" with the Supreme Leader's address "the first direct response to tighter sanctions imposed by the West". The Washington Post is blunt in its headline, "Khamenei: Iran will back ‘any nations, any groups’ fighting Israel".

In an interesting twist, The New York Times not only abridges the Supreme Leader's speech but drops him to the bottom of an article --- taking its preferred narrative from the Wall Street Journal, which had the story earlier in the day --- "U.N. Nuclear Inspectors’ Visit to Iran Is a Failure, West Says".

(In a notable exception, Scott Peterson of The Christian Science Monitor offers the fuller significance and strategy of Khamenei's address: "In a State of the Union-like speech before March elections, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to press on with Iran nuclear program, but warned of internal divisions between conservatives.)

But it's not just reporters of the "West" who see only the foreign dimension of the Supreme Leader's words. Even more interesting is the English-language text of the speech on Khamenei's website, "Iran Will Not Back Down, Will Confront Threats at Right Time".

There is no reference --- not a single one --- to affairs inside Iran. Gone is the Supreme Leader's call on officials not to "play the blame game" and on candidates to refrain from insults before March's elections for Parliament. Gone is his presentation of the Islamic Republic's strengths and its weaknesses, with a brief but significant reference to shortages amidst economic tensions.

And gone is the lengthy passage --- part-lecturing, part-pleading --- for candidates rejected by the Guardian Council for the March elections to accept the decision. Khamenei, not revealing the deeper concern --- why are the candidates being rejected? In whose favour? --- told the banned not to give comfort to the enemy by complaining, as they could serve their country in other ways.

Our snap analysis of Friday stands: a foreign-only focus on Khamenei's speech plays into his strategy of holding support by warning Iranians, again and again, about the US/Israel-led threats to their existence.

And a foreign-only focus misses the reason for that strategy: this is a Supreme Leader, with his office carefully censoring the image put out for overseas eyes, who is far from secure about that internal support.