Syria Opinion: Empty Talk --- The US and Its Allies Have No Strategy to End This Crisis

Protesters in Kafranbel in Idlib Province send a message to President Obama, 16 December 2011

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CNN knows it. The Washington Post is mystified by it. It's a safe bet that Bashar al Assad is fully aware of it as well.

There is no will in the West to intervene in Syria any time soon. Despite all the reasons to intervene in Syria, neither the United Nations nor NATO nor the US have shown any interest in getting involved.

To many, this news will be greeted with a sigh of relief. To others, this will be a disappointment and even a cause for anger.

But beyond this immediate revelation, there is a wider significance: the UN, NATO, and the Obama Administration are not just signalling that they are hesitant to intervene. They are also sending a crystal-clear message to the Assad regime that it is not at risk for a Libya-style takedown any time soon. Bashar, you are safe.

International action to end the crisis, thus far, has focused primarily on sanctions: sanctions that appear to be having a devastating effect on the Syrian economy, as well as the budget of the Syrian government. According to a CNN report, Assad's cash reserves have dwindled from more $30 billion in March 2011 to a current level of $6 billion to $9 billion, with the estimated cost of his crackdown $1 billion per month. Major trading partners, such as the European Union, have cut themselves off, and Damascus is left without a market to sell oil. The regime has struggled to provide adequate refined oil to its cities, there are widespread food shortages, and violence or general strikes shut down commerce in cities for days at a time.

The remainder of the international efforts have focused on covertly arming the insurgent fighters of the Free Syrian Army. Arms, coming across the borders Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, have given the FSA new hope. The weapons have been provided by private foreign backers, though there are rumors that Saudi Arabia, and possibly others, are also in on the act.

I have made the argument that arming the opposition is not enough to end the crisis and could carry with it unintended consequences. Three months later, with no end in sight, that argument has been at least partially vindicated. Assad, equipped with helicopter gunships, an unused air force, heavy artillery, and a vast quantity of armoured vehicles, anti-aircraft guns, and tanks, has been able to unleash hell on many cities. Even in the FSA's biggest victories, the insurgents have been largely incapable of stopping Assad's military might. The areas around the capital are still in control of the regime, and despite gains for the FSA in some areas, Assad remains the Goliath in the battle.

As a result, there are many calling for more action from the international community. Ideas have ranged from the establishment of humanitarian corridors to a no-fly zone, to full-scale air military intervention. However, with struggling Western economies, dcomplications on the ground in Syria, and general war fatigue, it is no huge surprise that the Western powers have not opted for more direct action, which would likely be tantamount to war, to end the crisis.

What is surprising is that the West has lots of options on the table beyond these --- everyday options --- but hasn't acted to stop the bloodshed or end the Assad regime.

What are these other options? One need to look no further than the West's reactions to Iran, US actions against Al Qaeda in Yemen, or even international efforts to stop piracy off the coast in Somalia. No additional US warships have been moved into the Mediterranean. No additional air forces have been moved to bases near Syria. Some additional aerial and surveillance has been done against Syria, but there has been no talk of greatly increasing those efforts. No troops have been sent to train the forces of US allies. No generals have spoken about how easy it would be to destroy Assad's artillery that is in the open when it is bombing civilian positions.

There has been no build-up, there has been no sabre-rattling. The US and its allies are effectively telling Assad that not only is intervention far from a favoured option, but that there are no preparations even to respond to the crisis in short order --- and there will not be any time soon. If you're a Somalian pirate, you have received more attention from the Pentagon than the Assad regime --- at least as far as the public face of the West's military might is concerned.

What is left as a strategy? Hope. The EU hopes that sanctions will topple the regime. Kofi Annan hopes the observers will end the violence. Obama hopes that Kofi Annan is right. NATO hopes that if then does not work, then Obama will do all the work himself. Saudi Arabia hopes that getting the Syrian insurgents some AK-47s or high-powered sniper rifles will topple the regime. Turkey hopes that refugees will stop flocking across its borders. The whole world hopes that, as the crisis draws on, jihadis, who are loving every minute of this, will not get involved.

The problem? There is absolutely no evidence that any of those hopes will succeed. There is no strategy for removing the Assad regime, nor ending the crisis, nor even limiting the amount of violence until the opposition just goes home (which is not going to happen). This is a growing threat that could destabilise the region, right in the center of the Middle East, and there is absolutely no thought as to how to limit or contain that threat, forget about eliminating the problem all together.

Nothing has been done to end the crisis. In fact, the efforts of the US and Europe have likely only made it worse. The only thing that has been done (maybe) is arming the opposition. If arming the opposition was part of a wider strategy to end the crisi, then it could be defended. However, all it seems to have accomplished is to make the pot simmer, only giving Assad more excuses to use his weapons to try to end the opposition to his rule.

And he knows this. Every day provides more evidence of Assad's defiance. UN observers are filmed while looking at tanks that were supposed to have withdrawn. Assad forces shell heavily- populated cities that are only a few kilometers from the UN monitors, open fire on civilians right in front of the observers, and damage UN vehicles. There is growing evidence that Assad is using helicopters to attack ground positions. The rate of arrests has not slowed, and in many places has increased.

The Free Syrian Army is stepping up its attacks but appears incapable of defeating the regime's troops in the short term, and suicide attacks and car bombs (no matter who is responsible) are wreaking havoc on the civilian populous. The country is becoming food-insecure, is facing a fuel crisis, and does not have the medical supplies to prevent or reverse a growing humanitarian crisis. Nothing is getting better in Syria. Everything is getting worse.

And, so far, there is not even a bluff to stop the violence.