The Latest from Iran (31 May): Towards a Diplomatic Crash in Moscow?

See also Iran Special: Tehran's View of Nuclear Talks --- Insight, Propaganda, or Self-Deception?
The Latest from Iran (30 May): Profiting from the Sanctions

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2049 GMT: Justice Watch. In an interview with Fars, Abdolhossein Ruholamini --- conservative political activist and father of one of the men killed in the Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009 --- has said that Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi will be charged in the case, probably as an accessory to murder.

Mortazavi was Tehran Prosecutor General at the time of the abuse and deaths.

Ruholamini said no date for trial had been set but Mortazavi's file had been sent to the court.

1539 GMT: Poking the UAE. Last month President Ahmadinejad visited Abu Musa, an island in the Persian Gulf which is claimed by both Iran and the UAE. Leaders of Gulf countries denounced the trip, the first by an Iranian political leader since the Islamic Revolution, as "provocative", while observers speculated on the motives of the President and the regime.

Now Iranian State media reports that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has visited Iranian combat units on Abu Musa and the other disputed islands of Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

Jafari, accompanied by the commander of the IRGC’s navy, Rear-Admiral Ali Fadavi, proclaimed, “Through regional cooperation, we can provide security of these strategic waters, disappoint enemies and add to the glory of Islam." He urged regional states, “particularly, those located in the southern parts of the Persian Gulf", to "cut off the hands of the global arrogant powers from the region by unity and brotherhood".

1253 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. France 24 has posted the full video of its interview with President Ahmadinejad in Tehran on Wednesday. We have not taken much of significance from the discussion, but headlines include the President's declaration that Iran stands on the principle that it can enrich uranium to 20% --- although he is open to arrangements of guaranteed supply from outside countries --- and his condemnation of last weekend's killings in Houla in Syria, without attributing blame to the Assad regime:

Digarban has put up a summary of the President's "unpublished" speech as the new Parliament opened earlier this month.

Ahmadinejad jabbed at his critics as "those who form gangs and parties" and who "get to power to line their pockets". He also swiped at the Parliament when he said, "I am ashamed of the [2012/2013] Budget," submitted late by the Government and then held up after Parliamentary objections until it was amended.

The President also stood against claims of illegal activity by his administration: "Law is very important. The Government never interfered in Majlis affairs."

A video of the address has also been posted.

1243 GMT: Loyalty Watch. The head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani has said, "The umma (Islamic society) should obey velayat-e faqih (clerical rule) because clerics have never betrayed the country like intellectuals did."

1237 GMT: Reformist Watch. Former President Mohammad Khatami has commented on his controversial decision to participate in March's Parliamentary elections: "I defend my right to vote in principle but accept the criticism about the procedure."

1229 GMT: Presidential Campaign Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate in 2009, has indicated he will stand again next year. He said none of the likely candidates are able to bring changes: "I will run if necessary."

1225 GMT: Denial of the Day. The President's official website has "strongly denied" claims of the arrest of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1215 GMT: Conspiracy of the Day. Kayhan reveals that Iran's inflation is a plot by foreigners based on the "putsch plans" of US academic Gene Sharp.

Sharp, known for his book The Politics of Nonviolent Action, has often been accused by Iranian authorities of instigating "velvet revolution". He was cited in the prosecutor's indictment at the mass trial of more than 100 defendants weeks after the 2009 Presidential election.

1211 GMT: Brain Drain. Iranian media report that almost 62% of the academic elite have left the country to pursue their education at top foreign universities.

In 2009, the International Monetary Fund put Iran at the top of its brain-drain list, with an annual loss of 150,000 to 180,000 specialists.

1117 GMT: Oil Watch. Back from an academic break to find that the National Iranian Oil Co. is signing a $2 billion contract with Petroleos de Venezuela to develop the Dobokubi oilfield, southeast of the town of El Tigre in Venezuela.

Iran's Petropars Ltd., on behalf of NIOC, will finance 26% of the project, investing a total of $500 to 520 million.

Caracas and Tehran have discussed development of Dobokubi since 2006. Production capacity will reportedly rise from 14,000 barrels per day to 40,000 in the first phase, and then to 60,000.

0823 GMT: China Dammed by Revolutionary Guards. On Tuesday, we reported the Ministry of Energy's announcement that it had cancelled a $2 billion contract with China to build a hydro-electric dam and given the project to Khatam al-Anbia, the engineering arm of the Revolutionary Guards.

Chinese State media have now confirmed the cancellation, quoting Tehran's reports that Iran's Central Bank was dissatisfied with financing options offered by China.

In March 2011, China's Sinohydro Corp. signed a contract with Iranian hydro firm Farab to build the dam, described as the world's tallest, in the western province of Lorestan. It was designed to support a 1,500-megawatt power station.

0728 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An endorsement of social media --- and a slap at the regime for trying to control it --- from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani:

Today, a page on Facebook, has the same effect of numerous television and radio channels and, without any costs, can influence millions of people. Or videos taken by mobile phones are immediately reflected across the world, and this is all a blessing for the world.

Although some people do not appreciate it, if we consider the prosperity of humanity and the movement against oppression, injustice and cruelty, we will realize that without this form of news outlets, it would become very dangerous. If we stop one thing, 10 others grow in its place, and when people find the way to get information, it is impossible to stop them.

0722 GMT: Loyalty Watch. In a top-secret letter circulated last August, the commander of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, ordered military and security personnel to call the Supreme Leader "Imam Khamenei".

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Zahra Khodabakhsh, the daughter of the leading investor in the reformist newspaper Shargh, has been arrested.

Security forces raided Khodabakhsh's home and detained her without any explanation. She was reportedly taken to Evin Prison.

Khodabakhsh is an architect with no history of political activism. However, her father, Ali Khodabakhsh, is a long-time investor in reformist publications. He was arrested on 7 December 2010 and later sentenced to a year in prison.

0710 GMT: A later start for us this morning, as we put out a special analysis, "Tehran's View of Nuclear Talks --- Insight, Propaganda, or Self-Deception?". 

Last week, we wrote after the Baghdad nuclear talks: 

We are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

This morning, with the benefits of the views and propaganda of Iranian diplomats, we offer an answer to one of those questions:

The Islamic Republic believes that it can win the game of diplomatic "chicken". The Moscow talks will break up with no advance.