The Latest from Iran (20 June): Nuclear Talks Over, Sanctions on the Way

Claimed photograph of a memorial on Tuesday at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan, killed by a gunshot during the protests of 20 June 2009

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash
Remember Iran Flashback: 20 June 2009 --- The Death of Neda...And Many Others
Middle East and Iran Audio Feature: "Oil and Politics" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Latest from #Iran (19 June): An Opening at Nuclear Talks? (No.)

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1502 GMT: CyberWar Watch. Minister of Communications and Technology Reza Taghipour has assured that authorities have identified and overcome the Flame malfare, which had disrupted computers linked to Iran's oil industry.

On Tuesday, The Washington Post revealed from "Western officials" that the US and Israel had developed Flame, which mined data to map Iranian networks, gathering intelligence for further cyber-operations.

Taghipour described this as “state terrorism”: “Such attacks are carried out by certain governments, while before this, most attacks were done by individual hackers.”

1455 GMT: Oil Watch. Latest shipping data indicates oil exports from Iran fell this month to between 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million barrels per day, about half the level of 2011.

Shipments in May were between 1.5 million bpd and and 1.6 million bpd.

Osamu Tsukimori and Chen Aizhu of Reuters summarise the situation for Iran's oil exports in Asia, with steps by some buyers only partially covering the restrictions brought by sanctions:

Japan has secured a parliament approval that allows the government to provide insurance cover, while China is asking Iran to take on the risk and deliver the crude on their ships. South Korea and India have yet to find a way out.

Together, Japan and China have nominated loadings for as many as 620,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil next month, sources said on Wednesday. A year ago, the Islamic Republic was selling around two-thirds of its crude exports, or roughly 1.45 million bpd, to these four Asian buyers.

And the report indicates that even the Japanese and Chinese arrangements may just be a temporary respite for Tehran:

Unipec, the trading arm Sinopec Corp (0386.HK), requested Iran to deliver July-loading crude cargoes to Chinese ports, sources said. One source estimated Sinopec will lift about 500,000 bpd for July, a level similar to the average amount the top Asian refiner bought from Iran last year.

The Unipec request suggests that China hasn't worked a permanent way to cover China-flagged tankers which have been transporting at least part of the Iranian oil.

"Short-term this may work, but that is not a long-term solution. The government needs to come up with a plan soon to coordinate on this matter," said an industry official.

1141 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Rear Admiral Abbas Zamini has declared that Iran will soon unveil 10 new domestically-built frigates and destroyers.

The Islamic Republic's first home-constructed destroyer was launched in 2010. Another destroyer will supposedly by completed by March 2013.

0926 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese Parliament has approved Government guarantees on insurance for crude oil cargoes from Iran, responding to imminent European Union sanctions.

The law will take effect on June 27. It allows the Japanese government, which has succeeded in getting a waiver from U.S. financial sanctions, to provide cover of up to $7.6 billion for each tanker.

The EU sanctions, starting on 1 July, prohibit European insurance firms from covering Iran's exports.

0921 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The most unsurprising statement on Tuesday --- after the Moscow talks, "a senior U.S. administration official" said, "Sanctions will be increasing. We have told the Iranians there will be more pressure coming if this (lack of progress) proceeds forward."

0911 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Russia has denied a Tuesday report on the Iranian site Fars that Moscow is joining China and Iran in military exercises in Syria.

Fars claimed 90,000 troops and hundreds of ships, tanks and warplanes from the four countries would be involved.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said the reports were "disinformation", and the Russian news agency Interfax quoted Bouthaina Shabaan, an adviser to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, "There will be nothing like that. This is one of those (pieces of) false information that are distributed."

(Cross-posted from EA's Syria and Beyond Live Coverage)

0845 GMT: Rafsanjani v. Larijani. On Tuesday we reported on a series of published documents allegedly showing "land grabs" in Tehran Province by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, and his brother Mohammad Javad, a senior judiciary official.

Now the Iran Newspaper Network claims that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, is behind the leak of the memoranda. The site suggests that Hashemi, who is a Ph.D. student at Oxford University, is trying to press the judiciary to drop charges of fraud and electoral manipulation against him.

0835 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Headline of the day is from The Guardian, "Dawn of the Zombie Talks".

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Isa Saharkhiz has been handed another sentence as he nears the possible end of his initial three-year prison term.

Saharkhiz's son Mehdi said his father was given another 18 months behind bars, linked to a case in 2001 which has been re-opened.

Isa Saharkhiz was arrested in July of 2009 during the regime's crackdown after the disputed Presidential election. He was convicted of “insulting the Supreme Leader” and “propaganda against the regime".

0605 GMT: We open this morning with an analysis of the two days of talks in Moscow on Iran's nuclear programme: "Put bluntly, the US and European teams have decided to wait for the possible crash of the Iranian economy from further sanctions and domestic tensions."

Meanwhile, there is an interesting lack of commentary in Tehran, both on the West's apparent rejection of its five-point plan as the basis for discussions, on the gesture of "technical talks" in Istanbul on 3 July, and on the European Union's cut-off of oil imports from Iran two days before that.

There has been no word from Press TV since Tuesday afternoon, and State news agency IRNA prefers the story of a "sponsorship package" to strengthen co-operatives. The English edition of Fars, linked to the Revolutionary Guards, does offer an alternative, featuring the post-talks statement from Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili:

Iran has no problem with transparency, rather it has a problem with deprivation. We are ready for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, but we, in turn, expect the illegal attitudes which are beyond the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and have been shown against the Iranian nation be withdrawn." 

(Press TV finally posted the Jalili remarks at 0805 GMT.)