The Latest from Iran (22 July): Trying to Fix the Economy for Ramadan

See also Iran Feature: The "No to Hijab" Campaign on Facebook
The Latest from Iran (21 July): Support the Syrian Regime, Support Your Leader

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1900 GMT: Reformist Watch. In a lengthy interview, opposition activist Mojtaba Vahedi has explained his decision to break after 30 years with Mehdi Karroubi --- former Speaker of Parliament, 2009 Presidential candidate, and detainee under strict house arrest since February 2011.

Vahedi said his primary motive was "to expose more freely" those reformists advocating participation in next year's Presdiential election.

1820 GMT: Election Watch. Radio Farda evaluates this week's declaration by the Guardian Council that it is changing Iran's election laws in accordance with the wishes of the Supreme Leader --- the site assesses that the move is the outcome of a struggle within the establishment, with the Council and Ayatollah Khamenei tightening their grip on power.

Bolstering that interpretation, Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini has said the Government is responsible for the election laws and changes would weaken the Iranian system.

1752 GMT: Chicken Watch. Is relief from higher prices on the way? The Ministry of Industry has announced the arrival of 20,000 tonnes of frozen chicken from Brazil.

1748 GMT: Economy Watch. In another sign of Iran's new trade arrangements amid sanctions, the Islamic Republic has announced a barter deal of Pakistani wheat for Iranian petrochemical products.

1740 GMT: Not My Job Watch. Minister of Labour Abdolreza Sheikholeslami has tried a novel explanation to meet the criticism of MPs (see 1210 GMT) over job losses and rising prices. He says unemployment is not the responsibility of his Ministry, as it only has duties for the employed and retired.

1430 GMT: Espionage Watch. Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has declared once again that Iran has arrested some of those responsible for assassinations of its nuclear scientists.

Speaking at a ceremony marking the first anniversary of the shooting death of Dariush Rezainejad, Moslehi said the Islamic Republic had shut down two networks inside and outside the country that trained the killers.

Senior officials have repeatedly said they have rounded up cells who planned and carried out the assassinations, but only one man, former kickboxer Majid Jamali Fashi, has been tried and executed.

1420 GMT: Economy Watch. Reuters offers an overview of the tension over the rising price of chicken, first setting out the basic numbers:

At around 65,000 rials, or over $5 at the official exchange rate, a kilo (2.2 lb) of chicken is now nearly three times the price it was a year ago. That makes it hard to afford for many in a country where gross national income per capita was about $4,520 in 2009, or $377 per month, according to the most recent estimate by the World Bank.

The surge in the price is mainly due to the exorbitant cost of importing chicken feed with Iran's weakened currency, which on the black market is more than 40 percent lower against the U.S. dollar than it was at the start of this year.

The report continues:

A veteran chicken producer in Iran, who asked not to be named, blamed the price rises on government mismanagement as well as the sanctions.

"Around half the chicken farms have stopped production because it has become too expensive to buy the imported raw materials," he said, citing the sharp increases in the cost of feed and imported vaccines.

And there is the dark humour to cope with the situation:

Iran's social networks are buzzing. "There are two classes of people: below the chicken line and above the chicken line," quipped one Twitter posting from a Shiraz resident.

Another tweet joked that instead of asking for traditional gold coins, soon-to-be-married Iranian women would request dowries of 200 tonnes of chicken.

1405 GMT: Economy Watch. Fars reports that 20 Iranian lawmakers have called for the impeachment of Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari, blaming him for “rising prices in our society and problems this has caused".

1305 GMT: Election Watch. According to IRNA, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has said he has no plans to run in the 2013 Presidential election.

1300 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told Fars, "There is no problem in Syria to be concerned about. The conditions in Damascus are normal and the Iranian nationals in Syria are facing no problem."

1210 GMT: Economy Watch. Fars reports that 20 Iranian lawmakers have called for the impeachment of Minister of Industry Mehdi Ghazanfari, blaming him for “rising prices in our society and problems this has caused".

Fararu reports that MPs have criticised the report of Minister of Labour Abdolreza Sheikholeslami, asking, "Why do retired military personnel get high positions while youths are jobless?"

The MPs said 80% of constituents approaching them are asking for jobs, even as Government officials have several posts. They complained that interest rates for investors are too high and the Government is offering "unreal" employment data.

1130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. University student Sara Mahboubi, a member of the Baha'i community, turned herself in on Wednesday to begin serving a 10-month sentence.

Security forces first arrested Mahboubi on 24 June 2010, releasing her on bail 24 days later. She was detained again on 9 April 2011, when the forces raided her home.

Mahboubi, who has been barred from university, was sentenced "membership in the anti-revolutionary website of Facebook" and "propaganda against the regime".

0727 GMT: Sanctions Watch. What a difference a few weeks makes....

Regime officials, including the Supreme Leader and President, had been declaring that US-led sanctions would hurt the West far more than Tehran. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to put out that line, but other senior figures, such as Speaker of Larijani, have now broken and admitted that the Iranian economy has been affected. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who had been the staunchest voice proclaiming all was well, offered a notable twist on Saturday: he said that the "harshest sanctions" are "God's greatest blessing", as they showed Iran's resistance to the US.

Hossein Mohammadi summarises the changing message of the regime.

0708 GMT: Revolutionary Guards Watch. Iranian media denies the rumour that Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Qods Forces of the Revolutionary Guards, was killed in the Damascus bombing on Wednesday. I am more interested, however, in this report --- the opposition Iran Green Voice site claims that Suleimani's brother Sohrab has been arrested for embezzlement and corruption.

0645 GMT: On the first day of Ramadan, the most telling signal from the regime may have been the announcement of the Central Bank that a "tiered" exchange rate is being introduced for imports.

The step is an effective admission that the currency situation --- with the Iranian Rial holding only half its value in the open market, vs. its official rate --- is damaging Iran's producers across industrial and agricultural sectors. Higher costs for inputs have driven up the prices of those goods which could be made, and in many case, production has been cut back or suspended entirely.

The Bank's step commands that "basic goods" can be imported at the official rate of 12260 Rials to the US dollar --- an effective discount of almost 60% on the market price --- and "capital and intermediate goods" at  a rate of 15,000 Rials to the dollar. Luxury goods will continued to be valued at the market rate of more than 19000 Rials to the dollar.

At the start of the year, the Central Bank has tried to cope with spiralling economic problems by commanding a single, official rate, replacing the five that were in effect. That effort soon colllapsed, with the regime --- despite limits on communication and threats of arrest --- unable to shut the unofficial market. 

Now the regime officials are returning to the "tweaks" chasing the difficulties of management and sanctions, complicating rather than simplifying its economy. Behind the rhetoric --- remember, this is the Supreme Leader's Year of National Production --- expect more short-term measures but no long-term stability.