The Latest from Iran (23 September): An "Inevitable" War with Israel?

President Ahmadinejad and military commanders gaze at a missile during Friday's parade in Tehran

See also The Latest from Iran (22 September): The Syria Muddle Continues

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2022 GMT: The House Arrests. The son of opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, held under strict house arrest since February 2011, has provided an update on his father's status.

Mohammad Taghi Karroubi said, "For the past six weeks, the family has been allowed to meet with Mr. Karroubi once a week and on a regular basis. These visits have taken place in the presence of security agents. Prior to this change in policy, there had been times when the family had gone four months without seeing Mr. Karroubi."

Karroubi's son said the opposition figure, who ran for President in 2009 and pressed the regime after the disputed election over justice and rights, has had access to newspapers for only four weeks out of his 19-month detention. So "I deemed it necessary to bring him up to breast with current affairs during our short visits that took place in the presence of security agents".

2000 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has returned to Iran after a three-year absence (see 1832 GMT) --- a photograph of him at immigration at the airport:

Fars reports that Hashemi, wanted on allegations of financial and electoral fraud around the disputed 2009 Presidential election, has 24 hours to turn himself into the Public Prosecutor.

1832 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Kalemeh claims that Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, is en route from Dubai to Tehran.

Hashemi has been in exile in Britain, enrolled as a Ph.D. student at Oxford University, since 2009. Authorities have said he will be prosecuted for financial and electoral fraud if he returns to the Islamic Republic.

Hashemi's sister Faezeh was arrested yesterday to serve a six-month sentence for "anti-regime propaganda".

1818 GMT: CyberWatch. Tabnak reports that authorities will begin filtering Google and Gmail tonight until further notice.

According to the Young Journalists Club site, officials have taken the action in response to the US-produced film, "The Innocence of Muslims", denigrating the Prophet Mohammad. Iranian meda specifically mentioned that YouTube, owned by Google and already blocked in Iran, featured the trailer for the film, which eventually fed demonstrations throughout North Africa and the Middle East.

1621 GMT: Espionage Claim of the Day (Rejected). The German company Siemens has denied the claim of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security Committee, that it planted explosive devices inside nuclear equipment for Iran.

The firm said it has "no business ties to the Iranian nuclear programme".

1615 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. The Revolutionary Guards have stepped up the rhetoric over Israel: for the first time, a senior commander has said that Iran could launch a pre-emptive strike if it was sure the Israelis were preparing to attack.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh told Iran's state-run Arabic language Al-Alam TV, "Iran will not start any war but it could launch a pre-emptive attack if it was sure that the enemies are putting the final touches to attack it."

Hajizadeh continued: "We cannot imagine the Zionist regime starting a war without America's support. Therefore, in case of a war, we will get into a war with both of them and we will certainly get into a conflict with American base. In that case, unpredictable and unmanageable things would happen and it could turn into a World War Three."

1405 GMT: Cyber-Warfare Watch. State media may be bragging of the hacking of Israeli sites (see 0541 GMT), but the regime is denying any operations against US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

"We officially announce that we haven't [launched{ any attacks," Gholam Reza Jalali, the head of civil defence, told Fars.

1152 GMT: Currency Watch. Fars reports that the Central Bank's effort to stabilise the Iranian Rial through a "trade room", injecting foreign exchange through oil revenue and National Funds, has been less than successful --- only Bank Mellat and Bank Keshavarzi were present at new forex trade and customers returned home without foreign currency.

1016 GMT: Currency Watch. More on the Central Bank's effort to stabilise the Iranian currency....

Bank head Mahmoud Bahmani said that 14.5% of oil income and 2 to 10% of National Funds --- effectively an injection of foreign reserves --- would be offered at a "trade room" on Monday.

0939 GMT: Economy Watch. Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has said that inflation may rise to 40% but could be lowered by the "right management".

Bahonar warned that only 800,000 barrels per days of oil were exported in July/August, just over 1/3 of the amount last year.

0930 GMT: Silly Espionage Story of Day. London's Sunday Times, citing "Western intelligence sources, dramatically announces:

Iranian troops uncovered a monitoring device disguised as a rock near the underground nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo....

[The sources said] that the fake rock exploded when Revolutionary Guards who were on a patrol last month to check terminals connecting data and telephone links at Fordo tried to move it.

Iranian experts who examined the scene of the blast found the remains of a device capable of intercepting data from computers at the nuclear plant, where uranium is being enriched in centrifuges....

It is feared a significant source of intelligence may have been lost for the West.

0900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that bloggers and translators Ali Ranjbar and Hamid-Reza Abdollahi were arrested last week and that there has been no news of their situation since then.

0801 GMT: Currency Watch. Bad news for Iranian students abroad --- Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini has announced that the Central Bank will not be responsible for providing them with foreign currency at official rate.

Except for candidates who receive government bursaries, the students will to use the open-market rate, under which foreign exchange is twice as expensive.

0756 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Nikahang Kowsar portrays the arrest of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, to serve a six-month sentence (see 0554 GMT): her father says, "Thank you for going to prison instead of me."

Gholamhossein Esmaili, head of prisons, has said that Hashemi has been transferred to Evin Prison's security ward for women.

0738 GMT: Military Mixed Signals. Even as the head of the Revoutionary Guards was proclaiming that war with Israel is "inevitable", other commanders were putting out a different message.

Deputy Chief of Staff Masoud Jayazeri assured, “The United States and the Zionist regime [of Israel], under the present circumstances, lack the capability for a hard confrontation with Iran,” while Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, an advisor to the Chief of Staff said, "We don't want war with anyone."

Meanwhile, the posturing continues. Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, the head of the navy, declared:

We have the capability to hoist Iran's flag in different regions from the North Poles to the South Pole and we are preparing plans for a presence near the South Pole.

However, we will never enter the maritime borders of others and we will not allow anybody to enter even a centimeter into our territorial waters.

0733 GMT: Press Watch. Sajjad Nowrouzi, the managing editor of the Farda website, has been sentenced to 91 days in prison after a complaint by President Ahmadinejadd's advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr.

Javenfekr, who edits the Iran newspaper, is still free even though he has been sentenced to two separate terms of one year each over issues of his publication.

complaint.

Two other media figures also reportedly received 91-day sentences.

0729 GMT: Health Watch. Rah-e Sabz claims hospitals face a shortfall of 800 billion Toman (about $630 million) after a rise in equipment prices.

The website also claims a statement by the Deputy Minister of Health that the Government has not yet allocated 6 trillon Toman to the health sector, even though this was ratified by Parliament.

0709 GMT: Currency Watch. More stumbling on Saturday over what to do about the currency situation, as Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of the Central Bank, said an area for currency trade will be launched soon but it will not be a substitute for a "foreign exchange stock market".

The Bank had floated the idea of the stock market earlier this month to prop up the Iranian Rial --- less than half its value of a year ago --- but soon withdrew it amid heated criticism from politicians and businessmen.

The Bank has also tried to ease criticism of its suspension of subsidised foreign exchange --- half as expensive compared to the open market --- by restoring it to importers of "first-grade" basic goods. However, it has hesitated to do so for "second-grade" goods, including drugs: they will only receive a 2% discount below the open-market rate.

Bahmani's latest statements are unlikely to ease the pressure from leading MPs. Ahmad Tavakoli said new Government plans are a "betrayal of the people", while Elyas Naderan warned of more inflation.

The Iranian Rial currently stands at 24580:1 vs. the US dollar on the open market, close to the all-time low reached earlier this month.

0554 GMT: Regime v. Rafsanjani. BBC Persian, reports from sources that Faezeh Hashemi, activist and daughter of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, was arrested late last night at her home.

Hashemi was sentenced to six months in prison last year for anti-regime activities, but had yet to be summoned to serve the term.

The news puts into context a loud rumour circulating in Iranian media this week. They claimed that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, in exile in Britain since 2009, was returning to Tehran even though he faces arrest and prosecution on charges of financial and electoral fraud.

A group gathered at the airport yesterday to protest the "return", but Mehdi Hashemi never showed up.

An EA correspondent's explanation? The whipped-up story is another "new move by radicals to confront Rafsanjani".

Faezeh Hashemi's arrest bolsters that analysis.

0541 GMT: Cyber-Warfare Watch. Has Tehran, unwittingly, confirmed a dramatic claim that it launched cyber-attacks on US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America?

On Friday morning, we framed NBC News's report --- citing US "national security officials" --- as Scare Story of the Day. I was still cautious yesterday, when The Washington Post offered a more detailed article, that the claims from the unnamed officials were more spin than substance.

But then Iran's Press TV decided to intervene, albeit indirectly:

An Iranian cyber team, known as Iranian DataCoders Security Team, has hacked nearly 370 Israeli websites over the recent insults to Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) by Western media.

The DataCoders Security Team said in a statement that nearly 370 commercial, security, economic and internet provider websites affiliated with the Israeli regime have been hacked.

The hacked websites include Israel Special Security Projects (ISSP), Ono Security --- a prominent Israeli supplier and importer of security-oriented systems and products --- and Teva Bank.

So is the story of a quick response to the US film "The Innocence of Muslims" merely a cover for an ongoing effort against the American targets?

0515 GMT: The "Sacred Week of Defense", in which Iran marks the 32nd anniversary of the start of its war with Iraq, is the setting for defiant statements about the Islamic Republic's standing up to and defeating its enemies, but even in that context, Saturday's declaration by the top commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, was ominous:

A war will occur, but it's not clear where or when it will be. Israel seeks war with us, but it's not clear when the war will occur.

Right now they see war as the only method of confrontation.

....If they (Israel) start something, they will be destroyed and it will be the end of the story for them."

So does this mean Iran will embark on the destruction of Israel?

No. Jafari's statement, for all its apocalyptic rhetoric, was still framed as "defence" against an Israeli strike, and it should be read as yet another warning to West Jerusalem and Washington not to pursue the option. It also is the drumbeat to the domestic audience that it should --- no, must --- support the regime and the armed forces.

These tactics are far from surprising, yet the Islamic Republic is paying a price for Jafari's bravado. As we noted at the start of Saturday's coverage, his chest-thumping has undermined Tehran's efforts to position itself as a regional power through diplomacy and a place at the top table on issues such as the Syrian crisis. The commander's rhetoric is not a complement, but a contradiction, to the signals of other officials that they want new talks with the West on Iran's nuclear programme.

So why pay that price? In discussion last night, an EA reader added this context: "Protests against rising inflation, unemployment, and poverty could destabilise the system." 

I am not sure that was Jafari's primary concern, but this is not an either-or situation. The foreign "threat" will persist, even if Israel never launches an attack. And so will the domestic challenge, as the regime tries to stave off the latest economic downturn.

The head of the Revolutionary Guards is declaring: no matter how bad it gets, you must stand by and with us.