The Latest from Iran (5 September): Admission --- The Sanctions Hurt Both the People and the Regime

See also Iran Feature: Regime to Media "Print Only Hope and Joy About Sanctions"
The Latest from Iran (4 September): Back to Business?

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0015 GMT: Resistance Watch. Najmeh Bozorgmehr summarises today's International Conference and Festival of Islamic Resistance, with the emphasis of the Supreme Leader's advisor Ali Akbar Velayati on support for Syria as "the golden link of the resistance chain against Israel" (see 1025 GMT).

Bozorgmehr notes that, while the Syrian Ambassador to Iran warned that the "vicious plans" of the US and its allies in the region would lead from overthrow of President Assad to regime change in Tehran, "the Lebanese and Palestinian groups at the conference appeared less concerned with Syria or Iran than with their own struggles".

2305 GMT: Assembly of Experts Watch. After two days of closed-door discussions, the 86-member Assembly of Experts has put out a statement covering foreign and domestic affairs.

On the international front, the Assembly sought "a reaction of the Muslim world to the conspiracy of the regime of [Western] domination in Syria" and the “bloody events of Myanmar and Bahrain, to which organisations defending human rights have closed their eyes”.

The Assembly set out an approach for Syria "to prevent the sending of weapons and financial support to this country by means of the regime of arrogance, and the intensification of the civil war and further complication of the situation; and to choose rational solutions on the basis of justice and the prevention of the murder and killing of innocent people, rejection of violence, national dialogue, and peaceful methods and the choice of freedom and distancing from the conspiracies of the arrogant and adventurists and pressures of the Zionists”.

And at home? The Assembly's emphasis was on support for the "resistance economy" declared by the Supreme Leader amid economic tensions and sanctions.

2254 GMT: Sanctions Watch. In a possible setback for Iranian attempts to bypass sanctions and transport its oil, a Russian firm has decided to stop verifying safety and environmental standards for one of Iran's biggest shipping groups.

St. Petersburg-based Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RS), among the top 13 global ship classification societies, decided to suspend its activities in Iran after a campaign by US group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

Without certification from classification societies, vessels are unable to secure insurance cover or call at most international ports. Iran has been trying to provide the coverage after European Union sanctions from 1 July removed almost insurance for Tehran's shipping.

2146 GMT: After the Summit. Several Grand Ayatollahs have asked for change in management of State broadcaster IRIB because of the controversy over the mis-translation of Egyptian Presiiident Mohamed Morsi's speech at the Non-Aligned summit last week.

IRIB changed Morsi's criticism of the Assad regime by replacing "Syria" with "Bahrain".

The clerics also chided IRIB for "inappropriate" drama series.

1902 GMT: Government Watch. Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Bahman Dorri has been dismissed. It does not appear, however, that this is the result of political in-fighting --- instead, the story is that he failed to answer phone calls.

1854 GMT: Nuclear Watch. "Western diplomats" pushing the spectre of a sinister Iran use the often-compliant Fredrik Dahl of Reuters to put out a story of Tehran's continued deception at the Parchin military base:

The U.N. nuclear watchdog showed a series of satellite images on Wednesday that added to suspicions of clean-up activity at an Iranian military site it wants to inspect, Western diplomats said, but Tehran's envoy dismissed the presentation.

The pictures, displayed during a closed-door briefing for member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), indicated determined efforts in recent months to remove any incriminating evidence at the Parchin site, the diplomats said.

In the latest picture, from mid-August, a building where the IAEA believes Iran carried out explosives tests --- possibly a decade ago --- relevant for nuclear weapons development had been shrouded in what appeared to be pink tarpaulin, they said.

"It was pretty compelling," a senior Western diplomat said about the briefing by IAEA Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts and Assistant Director General Rafael Grossi.

"The last image was very clear. You could see the pink," the envoy said.

1838 GMT: The Battle Within. Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Assembly of Experts, has hit back at President Ahmadinejad's apparent attempt, in his televised speech last night, to manoeuvre a candidate into place for the 2013 Presidential election.

Mahdavi Kani said, "The Government should not believe that its candidate will get votes" in that contest.

1643 GMT: Espionage Watch. Iran has released two Azerbaijani poets who were arrested in May for alleged espionage.

Shahryar Hajizadeh and Farid Husseinov were handed over to Azerbaijan’s consulate in the Iranian city of Tabriz on Tuesday and are expected to arrive in Baku on Thursday.

The Islamic Republic's officials had said that the two men had links to Azerbaijani secret services and had recruited dissidents in Iran to promote separatism.

There has been tension this year between Iran and Azerbaijan, including Azerbaijani accusations that Iran plotted to carry out terrorist attacks in the Azeri capital Baku and Iranian claims that Israel is using Azerbaijan as a base for operations.

Earlier this year, Azerbaijan arrested 22 people and accused them of spying for Iran.

1639 GMT: Tough Talk Alert. The Revolutionary Guards' naval commander, Ali Fadavi,has warned that Iran will not distinguish between US and Israeli interests, retaliating against both, if it is attacked:

The Zionist regime separated from America has no meaning, and we must not recognize Israel as separate from America. On this basis, today only the Americans have taken a threatening stance towards the Islamic Republic. If the Americans commit the smallest folly they will not leave the region safely."

1630 GMT: Economy Watch. The Supreme Leader's advisor, Yahya Rahim Safavi, has called on lawyers to ensure the achievement of Ayatollah Khamenei's "resistance economy", saying, "We must overcome passivity on all levels."

An indication of the size of the task? Abdolreza Azizi, the head of Parliament's Social Committee, and other MPs have declared that inflation is "breaking the back" of the Iranian people.

And Ezatollah Yousefian Mola of Parliament's Budget Committee has criticised that "government money goes to tower-builders, not to production".

1609 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Prominent activist Shiva Nazar Ahari was summoned to Evin Prison to serve her four-year sentence, only to be told to go home and return Saturday.

Nazar Ahari, a founding member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, was arrested days after the disputed 2009 Presidential election and again in December 2009. She was sentenced in September 2010 to six years in prison, initially on charges of "war against God"; the term was later reduced to four years.

1600 GMT: The House Arrests. Earlier (see 0800 GMT) we noted a big clue in a statement by a Revolutionary Guards commander that opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi would be held indefinitely under strict house arrest, with no charge or trial.

Now an even more significant official has reinforced the position --- head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has said that he assured Ayatollah Khamenei that the leaders of sedition will not be released and that he "managed to settle [the case] without [court] files".

Larijani also maintained that allegations of fraud against his brothers --- Speaker of Parliament Ali and high-ranking judiciary official Mohammad Javad --- are politically motivated.

1529 GMT: Re-Assurance of the Day. Iran Police Chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam says, "In Iran, the police are not against but for the people."

1520 GMT: Oil Watch. The Chairman of the Iran Insurance Company, Javad Sahamian has assured, "After the sanctions, Iran extends insurance coverage for every oil tanker loading in Iranian ports."

Sahamian asserted that Iran's insurers are now 14th place in the ranking of the International Group of P&I Clubs, providing cover against personal injury to crew, passengers and others on board; cargo loss and damage; oil pollution; wreck removal; and dock damage.

Iran's oil shipments fell sharply in July after the European Union barred insurers from coverage of Iranian tankers.

1518 GMT: Currency Watch. Last night President Ahmadinejad assured that his Government can control the open market for Iranian currency.

Today that market, open after last week's extended holiday for the Non-Aligned summit, has devalued the Iranian Rial to an all-time low. It has fallen almost 1.5%, reached 22180:1 vs. the US dollar.

The Rial is now weaker than its level at the start of 2012, when the Central Bank and Government intervened to prevent a further crisis with influx of foreign reserves and threats against open-market traders.

1505 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Back from an academic break to find Tehran-based analyst Sadegh Zibakalam's assessment of the President's speech last night....

Zibakalam asserts that Ahmadinejad wants to profit from rivalry between "traditional" hardliners (e.g. the head of the Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani) and "emergent" hardliners (e.g, the Paydari faction of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi) to impose his chosen candidate in the 2013 Presidential election.

Zibaklam offers the analogy of Vladimir Putin's placement of Dmitri Medvedev as President in Russia --- however, he does not believe that Ahmadinejad will be successful, given opposition of the traditional hard-liners.

Reformist politician Mohammad Dehghan has already interjected, "The President should know that Iran is not Russia."

1030 GMT: Oil Watch. Turkey's imports of Iranian crude rebounded in August from a 30-month low in July.

Having fallen to 48,000 barrels per day, Ankara lifted about 200,000 bpd in August. That exceeded its 2011 average of 180,000 bpd.

1025 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). The Supreme Leader's senior advisor on foreign affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, has told the International Conference of Islamic Resistance in Isfahan, “They (the West) wanted to mobilize all the financial resources of the Arab reactionaries and send arms and weapons to topple the Syrian government because of the defeat of the Zionist regime in North Africa and Middle East. But why are they doing this? Because Syria is the golden link of resistance."

0844 GMT: Ahmadinejad Claim of the Day. Speaking in Sirjan yesterday, the President said it was now possible for men to discover underground mines from hay on the ground:

0837 GMT: Currency Watch. The scale of Iran's purchases of gold from Turkey, cushioning against a weakening Iranian currency and declining foreign reserves, has been revealed by Ankara.

Tehran increased its purchase of precious metals to $6.2 billion this year through July from $21.9 million in the same period last year, a rise of almost 30,000%. The sales account for 70% of Turkey’s increase in exports in 2012.

0834 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. A deputy to the Minister of Economy claims economic growth from March 2011 to March 2012 was about 5%.

0822 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Another snapshot of the defiance of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even as he admitted difficulties over sanctions and the economy: "Who says this is the Government's last year? The President is the only representative of the people."

In his lengthy promotion of Iran's leadership through the Non-Aligned summit, Ahmadinejad offered the intriguing reference that "some" had made "senseless interferences" in foreign policy.

And the President gave the assurance that Government managers are "neither Freemasons nor Hojatieh [a faction banned by Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1980s for their emphasis on the imminent return of the Hidden Imam] or Bahai".

0811 GMT: Economy Watch. The Vice President for Parliamentary Affairs, Lotfollah Forouzabdeh, has confirmed that the Ahmadinejad Government has abandoned the second phase of its flagship programme for subsidy cuts, saying there were no plans to reduce support of basic food items and energy.

Last night President Ahmadinejad insisted that the subsidy cuts were a "law that had to be realised".

0805 GMT: After the Summit. How significant is the regime's public-relations push after their troubled efforts at the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement? Press TV not only features Iran's hosting of the "Third International Conference and Festival of Islamic Resistance"; it highlights an interview in English with the Supreme Leader's senior advisor and former Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Velayati: "It is the duty of all Muslims...to help the Palestinians to liberate Palestine.”

0800 GMT: The House Arrests. In a speech delivered at a Basij academics' seminar "soft war", Hamid Reza Moghaddam, the deputy chief for cultural affairs of the Revolutionary Guards, indicated that opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will be held under indefinite house arrest rather than being charged and brought to trial: "Confronting such people as Mousavi and Karroubi, who have a positive track record [in the first years of the Islamic Republic] and now are acting against the Islamic Revolution, is much more difficult than what was done to Noureddin Kianouri [a leader of the pro-Soviet Tudeh Party] and the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization [accused of terrorism by the regime]."

Mousavi and Karroubi, along with Mousavi's wife and fellow activist Zahra Rahnavard, have been detained since February 2011.

0610 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). "Senior American officials" use the New York Times to press allegations that Iran has resumed shipping military equipment to Syria over Iraqi airspace.

The officials indicate that objections by the Administration, expressed to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, had halted the shipments, but that the flights resumed in July.

An official said that US Vice President Joe Biden raised the issue in a phone call with Mr. Maliki on 17 August, but the leak to the Times suggests that the conversation has not had an effect to date.

0550 GMT: We pick up where we left off last night, with the recognition that sanctions are hurting both "ordinary people" and the regime.

The argument of Western governments that they do not wish to affect every-day lives of Iranians was challenged in an article by Najmeh Bozorgmehr citing the damage to health care:

The tightening of U.S. banking sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program has had an impact on all sectors of the economy but is increasingly hitting vulnerable medical patients as deliveries of medicine and raw materials for Iranian pharmaceutical companies are either stopped or delayed, according to medical experts.

The effect, the experts say, is being felt by cancer patients and those being treated for complex disorders such as hemophilia, multiple sclerosis and thalassemia, as well as transplant and kidney dialysis patients, none of whom can afford interruptions or delays in medical supplies.

On the other hand, the illusion of the Islamic Republic's leadership that it has not been weakened by the restrictions --- propped up by the injunction to publish only stories of "hope and joy" and by the ongoing assertions of some Western observers --- was dented by none other than President Ahmadinejad. In his televised interview last night, he admitted that Iran was having problems selling oil and that the "psychological warfare" of the enemy was causing wider difficulties.