Iran Live Coverage: No News is Good or Bad News at the Nuclear Talks?
Wednesday, February 27, 2013 at 11:35Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili speaks with Al Jazeera English
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Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Today's Nuclear Talks in Kazakhstan
1948 GMT:Oil Watch. Turkey maintained its current import level of three cargoes of Iranian crude oil in February.
Turkey has been importing three Suezmax tankers cargoes a month of Iranian crude oil since September, half of what Ankara used to purchase from Iran.
1438 GMT:Nuclear Watch. Complementing my Snap Analysis (see 1358 GMT), Laura Rozen brings some information on what may have been in the 5+1 Powers' approach to the talks --- or at least what Western officials are saying was the approach:
The centerpiece of the two-day meeting was a presentation Tuesday by Ashton of a revised international proposal focused on stopping Iran’s 20% enrichment activities, suspending operations at the fortified Fordow enrichment facility, and increasing nuclear safeguards, transparency and IAEA inspections that would prevent a rapid Iranian breakout capability, the US diplomat said.
The updated P5+1 proposal calls for the suspension of 20% enrichment–”in common to the Iran position,” the senior U.S. official said. Unlike the past proposal put forward at a meeting in Baghdad last May, the updated proposal would allow Iran to keep a sufficient amount of its 20% enriched fuel needed for medical purposes, the US diplomat said.
The revised proposal calls for “suspension of enrichment at Fordo” --– rather than shuttering it --– and would “constrain the ability to quickly resume operations there,” the American official continued. It would also call for “enhanced IAEA monitoring measures to promote greater transparency in Iran’s nuclear program and provide early warning of any attempt to rapidly or secretly abandon agreed limits and produce weapons-grade uranium,” the official said.
“In exchange, it offers some steps to ease sanctions on Iran,” the US official said. “We never regarded sanctions as an end in themselves.”
The US official said the proposed sanctions relief at this stage does not involve oil or financial sanctions, but other US and European Union imposed sanctions, which she did not specify. The new proposal would also offer no new UN Security Council or European Union sanctions to be imposed for proliferation.
1358 GMT:Nuclear Snap Analysis. A few hours after the close of the Kazakhstan talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers, some starting points for analysis:
1. I was surprised by the agreements for further talks before Iran's Presidential elections in June --- not as much by the announcement of technical discussions on 17-18 March in Istanbul, rather the commitment to another high-level gathering next month.
Up to this morning, with negative reactions to the talks in some Iranian outlets, I was holding to the prediction that the next top-table talks would be in September.
2. So what brought the agreement for more discussions? Watch for some outlets to portray this as Iran, amidst economic difficulties, being ready to make concessions. Watch for Iranian media to portray this as the West making concessions because of Iran's vigorous defense of its position.
The answer, of course, is that one side's "concession" is another's "breakthrough".
3. What we do not know --- crucially --- is what the "West" put on the table regarding sanctions relief. Clearly, Iran is expecting more than the derisory offer to withdraw the bans on transfer of gold and precious metals to Tehran.
4. What appears to have happened, however, is that the 5+1 Powers made some move regarding process. Rather than the "grand demand" of Iran shutting down its 20% uranium enrichment, closing the Fordoo plant, and shipping out its stock, the US and Europeans seem to have moved to Iran's "step-by-step" approach.
At least that is the coded message from Iran's lead negotiator, Saeed Jalili: "The P5+1’s response to the proposals that Iran presented in Moscow was more realistic comparing to what was said in the past."
That does not mean a shift on outcomes sought but it does alter the procedure --- and thus both sides can move to technical talks re initial steps.
1048 GMT:At the Movies. Kambuzia Partovi and Maryam Moghadam are unable to visit a Luxembourg film festival as they have had their passports confiscated by Iranian authorities.
Partovi co-wrote the screenplay with Jafar Panahi for the director’s latest film “Closed Curtain,” which won Best Script at the Berlin Film Festival. Moghadam stars alongside both Partovi and Panahi in the film, which has been condemned by the Iranian regime.
1026 GMT:Nuclear Watch.Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili has announced that the next round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries will take place in Almaty, Kazakhstan, on 5-6th April and confirmed that technical-level talks would be held in Istanbul on 18th March.
Jalilli also stated that “The P5+1’s response to the proposals that Iran presented in Moscow was more realistic comparing to what was said in the past.”
According to Jalili, the meetings in Almaty had produced “positive” developments.
0956 GMT:Presidential Election Watch. Former Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki has become the latest candidate to throw his hat in the ring for the Presidential election in June.
Mottaki has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government since he was dismissed by the President in December 2010. In particular, he has claimed that much of the pursuit of Iran's foreign policy is ill-advised and poorly implemented.
0930 GMT:Engineering the Elections Watch. The former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, Mohammad Hossein Saffari Harandi, has stated that opinion polls suggest a 50% turnout for the elections in June but that “the closer we get to the election this amount will increase and reach above 70%”.
In a warning shot to Ahmadinejad and his allies Harandi added that whoever the next president was he “must be transparent with the Leader of the Revolution, not say one thing and in practice behave another way and circumvent the Leader of the Revolution”.
0912 GMT:Ahmadinejad Watch. With President Ahmadinejad accompanied by his close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai during a meeting with the Swedish Deputy Foreign Minister, there is more speculation that the two men are planning for Rahim-Mashai's run for the Presidency in June.
Mashaei’s recent appointment as Chief Secretary for the Non-Aligned Movement has been accompanied by his attendance at a number of high-profile meetings with foreign dignitaries.
Davoud Ahmadinejad, the president’s brother, is not happy about the development: "The transfer of this person was not wanted by the Supreme Leader, but they wanted a legal position for [Rahim-Mashai] so he could comfortably travel abroad and have in his control the resources of the Iranian embassies abroad."
0841 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The press conference of Iran's negotiator, Saeed Jalili, begins with a more positive tone than that in Iranian State media (see 0824 GMT):
#Iran Jalili reads statement w some positive language - "more realistic comparing too what they said in past.."
— lyse doucet (@bbclysedoucet) February 27, 2013
A Russian official has said that the technical talks will be in Istanbul on 17-18 March.
0824 GMT: Nuclear Watch. In contrast to the presentation in some Western reports, "Positive Signals from Iran Nuclear Talks", Iranian State news agency IRNA is downbeat.
Citing Iranian diplomats, IRNA said this morning's meeting was brief. It then jibes that the "Western proposal" linking Tehran's suspension of 20% uranium enrichment with sanctions relief was merely a restatement of last year's unsatisfactory offer and was "not new".
IRNA makes no reference to any Iranian proposal on the table.
'The Iranian Students News Agency takes the same line that the proposal of the 5+1 Powers was no advance from what they put forward from June's high-level talks in Moscow, which ended in stalemate.
0814 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen of Al Monitor reports, from "Iranian sources", that the follow-on technical meeting will be held in Istanbul next month, with a further "political-level meeting" --- date not given --- which is likely to be in Kazakhstan.
Rozen adds: "Two past meetings of technical experts held the past year have been held out of the spotlight and have been more productive and involved more US-Iran interactions, American officials told journalists in a briefing here Monday."
0814 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Laura Rozen of Al Monitor reports, from "Iranian sources", that the follow-on technical meeting will be held in Istanbul next month, with a further "political-level meeting" --- date not given --- which is likely to be in Kazakhstan.
Rozen adds: "Two past meetings of technical experts held the past year have been held out of the spotlight and have been more productive and involved more US-Iran interactions, American officials told journalists in a briefing here Monday."
0810 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The BBC's Lyse Doucet brings the news of the end of the Kazakhstan talks, with a vague report of what comes next:
Western official: " #Iran talks #Almaty have ended" Waiting for official statements. What was achieved here?
— lyse doucet (@bbclysedoucet) February 27, 2013
How positive were #Iran talks? Agreement for technical meeting Istanbul & another political meeting #Almaty
— lyse doucet (@bbclysedoucet) February 27, 2013
0745 GMT: The Battle Within. Days after criticism by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of President Ahmadinejad, the pro-Ahmadinejad Shabake-ye Iran site has hit back at the Guards: “Perhaps Iran is the only country where some of its military servicemen up to this level, at any moment they desire, can attack the highest office [the Presidency]”.
The article, criticising the lack of oversight of the political interventions of the IRGC, challenges the Supreme Leader's representative to the Guards, Ali Saeedi: “Apparently the investigator in the Revolutionary Guards is the person of Hojatoleslam Saeedi, but his position is clear. Perhaps Mr. Saeedi needs at times an investigator himself."
Shabake-ye Iran claimed that the previous Political Deputy of the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Ashraf Nuri, was cast aside because of his “moderate” positions regarding the Government, while his successor, Rasul Sanai Rad, is a critic of Ahmadinejad.
0705 GMT: Nuclear Watch. This morning's discussion between Iran and the 5+1 Powers in Kazakhstan began more than two hours ago, but so far there is little to note.
One note does emerge in the portrayal by Western officials of Tuesday's opening talks: the Iranians, in addition to the formal negotiations with the 5+1 Powers, had bilateral meetings with Russian, German, and Britain counterparts.
0615 GMT: Nuclear Watch. The news from the first day of the talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers in Kazakhstan was that there was next-to-no news.
The line from Western officials, which still told us little, was that the 5+1 Powers offered "limited sanctions relief" in return for the closure of the Fordoo enrichment plant, which produces 20% uranium.
That appears to be only a small shift from the US-European proposal, in the last high-level talks in June 2012, of "stop, ship, and shut" to halt Tehran's 20% programme and move the fuel out of the country. The Western officials did not specify the sanctions to be eased, but "limited" points to a suggestion --- floated last week by US and European sources --- that American restrictions on the transfer of gold and metals to Iran, imposed only on 6 February, can be lifted.
Tehran has already signalled that the retraction of this month's sanctions is far too little in exchange for the move away from 20% enrichment.
The main effort of the Western officials appeared not to be the flagging of a "pathway" to a settlement but to put the responsibility for any lack of progress of Tehran :
Iranian negotiators did not immediately respond to the P5+1's demand that Tehran closes its underground nuclear facility Fordoo...."Hopefully the Iranians will be able to reflect overnight and will come back and view our proposal positively," said a spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton who oversees Iranian diplomacy for the six powers.
For its part, Tehran only said that it had put a substantial proposal on the table, without offering any details.
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