Iran Live: Today's Nuclear Scare Story

1916 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch --- How Many People Attended Today's Rally?

Conflicting reports have emerged as to how many people attended Ahmadinejad's rally --- previously billed as a campaign launch for Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei --- in Tehran's Azadi stadium on Thursday.

The Associated Press, citing pro-government news agency IRNA , said 70,000 people attended the event.

However, it appears that IRNA amended its reports, and is reporting merely that the rally took place in the 100,000-capacity Azadi stadium without saying how many people attended.

IRIB TV footage from the event posted on YouTube shows a mostly-empty stadium, however it is not clear from the video when during the event the footage was taken.

The rally --- originally set for April 15 --- was billed as an "extravaganza". However, Mashaei did not appear, according to reports. Instead, the president thanked government workers for their hard work during the Nowruz holiday.

1655 GMT: Election Watch --- Rafsanjani Edition

In an article on his personal website , former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said it was "unfortunate" that individuals and political currents who had "developed the current situation in Iran" were unwilling to admit to their self-inflicted problems in favor of allowing a greater degree of social consensus and participation.

Rafsanjani said that if there could be a situation whereby the different political preferences bound by the constitution were seen to be actively part of the elections, and where different parts of the community were represented, the result would be social consensus. This could solve many of Iran's domestic and international problems, he added.

The Saham news agency reported this week that Rafsanjani had spoken out against a rift with the Supreme Leader.

In December, Rafsanjani said that a "free, transparent and legal" election could help restore moderation in Iran.

1616 GMT: Military Watch: Iran Insists New Fighter Jet Is Real

During Thursday's Army Day celebrations, Iran's defense ministry insisted that the country's new fighter jet, the Ghaher-313, is more than just a "paper model" and is designed to protect Iran's security in the Persian Gulf.

Fars News English service, aimed at a Western audience, cites deputy defense minister Majid Bokayee as saying that the jet was a "Basiji aircraft" that would be used in anti-helicopter missions.

Iran unveiled its Ghaher-313 fighter jet in February, hailing it as a major achievement in domestic engineering, a message central to Tehran's narrative about its military developments.

However, the jet Iran displayed was apparently only a design mock-up that would be incapable of flight.

In dismissing Western criticisms of the Ghaher-313, Bokayee referred to the concept of "self-sufficiency jihad" that underscores Iran's military:

"That was the Americans' analysis, but we bravely declare that Qaher, (designed and developed) at a cost of $2 to 3 million, is a Basiji (volunteer) aircraft to protect the Persian Gulf," Fars cited Bokayee as saying.

0955 GMT: Political Prisoners Write Khatami

A group of political prisoners has written former President Mohammad Khatami, urging him to make release of all political detainees a condition of his participation in June's Presidential election.

Before the 2012 Pariamentary elections, Khatami said that freedom for political prisoners was a condition for involvement; however, he relented on polling day to the extent of casting a ballot.

Meanwhile, 110 ulema and clerics of the Qom Seminary have invited Khatami to participate in the elections.

0735 GMT: Military Watch: Iran Marks Army Day

Fars News, close to the Revolutionary Guards, reported that fighter jets had flown over Tehran on Thursday morning, as part of the celebrations for Army Day -- Ruz-e Artesh.

Iran celebrates Army Day every April 18, the day its armed forces, or Artesh, was established. Iran marks the day with military parades, celebrating domestic achievements in the military sphere with announcements of new hardware and equipment.

Fars' English service, intended for a Western audience, emphasised that the military planned to unveil new domestically-manufactured reconnaissance and defense drones . Iran places considerable emphasis on its "indigenous" military achievements -- and has particularly stressed its advances in drone technology -- although it is impossible to independently verify its claims.

0730 GMT: Election Watch: The 2+1 Coalition Is A 'New Type of Campaign'

Ali Akbar Velayati, the supreme leader’s chief foreign policy adviser, says the 2+1 coalition had not yet decided on who would be the final candidate, but that "ultimately, we will select one person to be the presidential candidate, and the other two people will support him."

Formed in January, the 2+1 coalition comprises Velayati, MP Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel and Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

Speaking in Esfahan, Velayati said that during the campaigning, the three coalition members would not be competing with each other. Rather, they would support each other like the three sides of a triangle.

In a panel debate, each of the three would speak about the area of governance about which they had expertise, Velayat noted.

"We complement each other," Velayati said, adding that this arrangement was a "new type of campaign."

0520 GMT: Nuclear Scare Story

Fredrik Dahl of Reuters fed by three unnamed diplomats --- possibly with a free lunch, definitely with "information" --- puts out a scary story of Iran's deceit over its nuclear programme:

Iran is increasing the number of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges installed at its Natanz underground plant, despite tightening international sanctions aimed at stopping Tehran's nuclear progress.

Hmm. Certainly sounds ominous. Only problem for Dahl is that the discerning reader --- considering not only the available evidence, but Dahl's own reporting --- could establish how un-scary this latest attempt is.

In January, Dahl was putting out the line that Iran would soon be putting 3,000 IR-2 centrifuges, replacing the IR-1 model in use since the 1970s, at its Natanz enrichment plant. That puts yesterday's spin from "Western diplomats" into perspective:

One diplomatic source estimated that roughly 500-600 so-called IR-2m centrifuges and empty centrifuge casings had now been put in place at the Natanz enrichment facility in central Iran.That compares with 180 two months ago.

Using these figures, Tehran has been adding 160 centrifuges per month at most. At this rate, Iran would reach the supposedly-scary goal of 3,000 centrifuges in July 2014.

Not exactly an imminent threat, then. And if you look carefully, there is also this note that Dahl slips in: "The diplomats said the new centrifuges were not yet operating...."

Of course, the reporter immediately adds, "....but the increase in installation was still likely to add to Western alarm over Iran's nuclear advances".

Such alarm means that Dahl does not have to consider his past cries of Nuclear Wolf.

Nor does he have to note that Natanz does not produce 20% enriched uranium, a mandatory step on the way to a militarised nuclear programme --- that production is done at the Fordoo plant, the centre of Western demands for shutdown or suspension.

Instead, Dahl can finish his lunch by turning to a reliable source for sound-bites:

If hundreds of new centrifuges had now been installed, "it indicates that Iran has made a significant breakthrough both in mastering the technology and in acquiring the raw materials," said nuclear expert Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank.

Yet even that vague statement has a trap door. Note the "if".