Iran Live: An All-Is-Well Analysis of the Presidential Election

1731 GMT: Oil Watch Ship industry sources say Iran is storing millions of barrels of oil on tankers in its territorial waters amid sanctions.

Ship industry sources gave varying estimates on how much oil Iran was storing at sea, but all said the volume was higher.

Data from maritime intelligence publisher IHS Fairplay estimated 10 of Iran's supertankers, each able to carry up to 2 million barrels of crude, were storing oil, together with one smaller tanker able to carry up to 1 million barrels.

The data showed a further two supertankers were also probably deployed on floating storage, based on the length of time they were stationary, meaning as much as 25 million barrels in total.

The vessels, all belonging to Iran's top tanker operator NITC, were located close to the Iranian oil terminals of Assaluyeh, Kharg Island and Bahregan, the data showed.

Another ship industry source estimated 17 NITC vessels were storing crude oil, mainly on supertankers, while another said 15 tankers were storing crude oil around Iran, with volumes close to 30 million barrels.

Last year Iran's floating storage was estimated to have reached at least 33 million barrels before buyers were found.

1253 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch Fereshteh Ghazi summarises claims that more than 280 people have been arrested in Khuzestan Province recently.

Relatives of those arrested said that they have no information about the condition or whereabouts of the detainees.

1146 GMT:Foreign Affairs Watch (Syria Edition). Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Chairman of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has condemned US support for Syrian opposition groups, particularly via Jordan.

Boroujerdi stated, "We advise the US to end this game since it [ending the game] serves the Americans' interests, given the fact that the Syrian government is becoming more powerful each day."

1138 GMT:Human Rights. According to a report by Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), Dr. Rahman Ghreman Pour, the editor of Diplomatic Hamshahry monthly and professor of International relations has been refused parole for medical reasons despite suffering from back arthritis, eye weakness and breathing problems.

The professor was arrested after writing a series of critical reports about Ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies and was sentenced to 3 years and 3 months of suspended imprisonment; so far, he has already spent 22 months in jail.

1059 GMT:All Is Well Watch (Industry Edition). In another assertion of just how well Iran’s domestic economy is doing, a number of Iranian outlets are celebrating the launch of the Mobarakeh Steel Mill in Isfahan, which with an annual production output capacity of 900,000 tonnes will make it the largest coke production plant in the Middle East.

While PressTV’s report barely acknowledged the presence of Ahmadinejad, state media IRNA placed the President at the centre of their story.

Ahmadinejad, who was at the opening ceremony, took the opportunity to declare that only the people can decide the outcome of the forthcoming election and the nation must abide by the result.

1035 GMT:All Is Well Watch (Sanctions Edition). Shamseddin Hosseini, Minister of Economy and Finance, declared yesterday that Iran has devised a series of strategies to counter the effects of Western sanctions.

Hosseini said “Now that these sanctions have been imposed, we have encountered them realistically and tapped into all domestic potentials to deal with them.”

He added that “We believe that the nuclear issue is not the [real] motive for those imposing the sanctions; rather, it is a cover-up to paralyze Iran’s economy.”

0700 GMT:Election Watch With less than two weeks to go before Presidential hopefuls formally declare candidacy, the Supreme Leader's "2+1 Committee" has not announced the unity choice it has been seeking. In the vacuum, several principlist factions --- the "Committee of Five" with four Presidential candidates, the camp of former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei, the group around MP Alireza Zakani, the hard-line Endurance Front, and President Ahmadinejad and his inner circle --- have entered the race and taken headlines.

Analyst Farideh Farhi, however, does not see this as unsettling:

In the upcoming elections, there is no sitting president running for re-election. So lack of clarity regarding the leading contenders is not that unusual.

In the 2005 election, the field of candidates also had not fully clarified two months before the election. Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati was still contemplating a run while former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had not yet declared his intent to run (and once he did, everyone assumed he would win).

This uncertainty is part and parcel of lack of political parties or groups with large social bases and lack of established process for candidate selection within and among these organizations. In every election, new mechanisms and processes are invented or improvised as potential candidates jockey to establish their viability or ability to attract votes before the Guardian Council begins the process of vetting.

Farhi continued, "The state of competition remains unclear for the upcoming election because of...the so-called Nezams, which is usually another way of saying the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s preferred candidates."

But is it really the case that the Supreme Leader knows his preferred candidates and will bring them out at this late point, just as formal candidacies are being declared? Or is he still making up his mind?

And a bigger question: will Ayatollah Khamenei and his 2+1 Committee simply be able to anoint the candidacy of the future winner without facing resistance from the other groups that have entered the floor of this political dance?