Syria Live: "The Regime Used Chemical Weapons" Campaign

Claimed footage of the destruction of the Ummayad Mosque in Aleppo

See also Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence
Wednesday's Syria Live: The Fight Near the Lebanese Border

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1740 GMT: Chemical Weapons. Two significant updates about our previous story that the US now says Assad has used chemical weapons in Syria....

Danger Room reports that there is clear and unambiguous evidence, based on blood samples of the victims, that sarin gas was used by the Assad regime, according to an unnamed American intelligence official:

“This is more than one organization representing that they have more than one sample from more than one attack,” the source tells Danger Room. “But we can’t confirm anything because no is really sure what’s going on in country.”

What’s clear is that the samples are authentic, and that the weapons were almost certainly employed by the Assad regime, which began months ago mixing up quantities of sarin’s chemical precursors for an potential attack, as Danger Room first reported.

“It would be very, very difficult for the opposition to fake this. Not only would they need the wherewithal to steal it or brew it up themselves. Then they’d need volunteers who would notionally agree to a possibly lethal exposure,” the source adds.

This assessment sounds definitive, as if the US is certain sarin was used. It is also a lot stronger rhetoric than the official statement originally leaked through Secretary of Defense Hagel.

The second development is that the White House, via a letter sent by Miguel Rodriguez, White House director for legislative affairs, to Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, more clearly states the administration's position on the incident. That letter confirms that "physiological samples" have been used to ID the weapon. But that letter also hesitates that much about the conflict is unknown. Some of this hesitancy infers that there are concerns about previous intelligence failures (Iraq WMD). A "full investigation" is warranted, "precisely because the President takes this issue so seriously."

Then, the kicker - the letter states that in order to know for sure, the US will support a UN investigation into the incident.

Snap analysis - The UN is already prepared to investigate the claimed uses of chemical weapons in Syria, but they have been blocked by the regime. As chemical weapons are the "red line," does anyone in the Obama administration really believe that the Assad regime will, with this new revelation, have a change of heart? Of course not. On one hand, both the letter and the leaked message indicate that the US is in possession of what it believes is the smoking gun. On the other hand, the US refuses to act alone, has no interest in involving itself militarily at the moment, and will hide behind the failure of the UN mission to buy time.

BUT, they are also working the other side of the coin. The leaked statement will infuriate the public and begin to build a case for more support for the rebels, or perhaps eventual direct military intervention. This process will be slow, potentially buying enough time so that Obama's real wish, a negotiated settlement, can become a reality.

There is a gradual realization that the situation in Syria is decaying and becoming a regional threat. At this point, the Obama administration does not like its options for dealing with that threat directly, and so will seek to gradually step up other solutions (like arming the rebels). But the end goal, at this point, is a settlement, not a rebel victory. Moving too quickly will provide a rebel victory. Moving too slowly could be even worse.

1555 GMT: US Says Assad Has Used Chemical Weapons. Last year, Barack Obama said that any use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would be a red line - cross it, and there would be consequences:

"I want to make it absolutely clear to Assad and those under his command. The world is watching. The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable."

Today, the United States says that Assad has crossed that red line.

In statements by Chuck Hagel, the Secretary of Defense, the administration is both challenging the regime and softening its rhetoric. Today he said:

"The U.S. intelligence community assesses with some degree of varying confidence the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin," Hagel told reporters while traveling in Abu Dhabi.

Compare that statement to the bold threat issued by Barack Obama, and its clear that the US may not treat this development as the red line that was defined by Obama. "Some degree of varying confidence" means that the US is echoing statements by major allies, and the opposition which it publicly supports, that chemical weapons have been used. At the same time, it's a statement that infers that the US will not act so boldly without total confidence. The statement also stresses that the weapons have been used on a "small scale," downplaying the threat. The statement does say, however, that sarin, a dangerous weapon, was used, which may give the US recourse in increasing its support for the Syrian rebels.

Perhaps you could say that, according to the Obama administration, a light-pink line has been crossed by the Assad regime. But I can say, to some degree of varying confidence, that there won't be swift consequences and Assad won't be held accountable any time soon. This statement by Hagel is designed to buy the US time while allaying the concerns of major allies like Israel and the UK. We'll wait to see whether the American administration clarifies their statements or their response to this new development.

1402 GMT: Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al Nusra in Hama. More video from the Tareeq Halab district of Aleppo (see update 1326). This reportedly shows members of the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al Nusra having destroyed a security vehicle.

Warning - Towards the end of the video, one of the burning bodies of an Assad fighter can be seen.

Rebels have had a strong presence in the Tareeq Halab district for months, and have used the district to launch attacks elsewhere in the city. These fighters, however, came from the countryside, and were joined by FSA elements inside the city already. The regime has maintained a presence in most of the city, but their control in some areas, especially in the northwest, have been nominal at best.

It remains to be seen whether this is a rebel campaign to take and hold the city, or a temporary action. We're guessing the latter.

1356 GMT: PKK to Withdraw from Turkey. In another parallel story to the Syria conflict, there has been a major development in the conflict between the Kurdish rebel group PKK and the Turkish government. Al Jazeera reports that the PKK will withdraw from Turkey by May 5th.

"If any kind of attack or operation takes place during withdrawal, we will immediately stop withdrawing and start self defence" Murat Karayilan, PKK's acting leader, said which was published on pro-Kurdish Firat News Agency.

1336 GMT: Israel Intercepts Hezbollah Drone. According to an IDF press release, the Israeli military shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle that crossed into Israel territory from Lebanon approximately two and a half hours ago. This is the 2nd time in 7 months that such a drone has been intercepted, according to the release:

UAVs pose a serious threat to the State of Israel's security. The IDF will not tolerate any attempt to violate Israel's sovereignty or harm its security.

In a separate entry, we address how Hezbollah is raising regional tensions. In the complicated geopolitics concerning Lebanon, every development like this is potentially significant.

1326 GMT: Heavy Fighting in Hama. Syrian rebels have launched attacks in several areas of Hama city. The regime has responded by charging tanks through the city. This video was taken in the Tareeq Halab (AKA Aleppo Street) district (map). It contains some of the main thoroughfares in the city. As you can see, however, the Syrian rebels have destroyed some of the armored vehicles. Another video shows rebels and regime fighters moving in the city. There appears to be debris in the road, possibly an IED.

Reuters reports that, according to a source in the rebels, the attack is designed to relieve pressure on the rebels fighting in the countryside. It appears that the rebels overran a school, reportedly used by a regime garrison:

Videos uploaded by activists showed rebels raising a black Islamist flag over a charred and bullet-scarred school they stormed on Thursday. They said it had been used as a military base and detention center by soldiers and pro-Assad militias.

"This was one of the worst regime sites in the city. The soldiers treated residents harshly and in a sectarian manner," said an activist using the name Abu Adnan, speaking from Hama.

1304 GMT: Death Toll Rising. According to the Local Coordination Committees, 68 people have been killed so far today nationwide:

28 martyrs in Damascus and its Suburbs, 10 in Idlib, 10 in Homs, 8 in Hama, 5 in Raqqa, 2 in Deir Ezzor, 2 in Aleppo, 1 in Daraa, 1 in Hassakah, and 1 in Latakia.

The LCC's rolling death tally is imperfect, but the data is gathered systematically, which makes it an excellent measure of the level and intensity of violence. The death toll is slightly elevated at this early hour, and as we know it only gets higher as the day goes on. Damascus's death toll is elevated, as it has been for weeks, but so too is the death toll in Idlib, Homs, and Hama.

In Hama, the rebels have launched a new series of attacks. It's unclear if this is a temporary or permanent escalation in fighting, but Reuters reports that the city was almost entirely shut down today. Reuters, however, makes the ridiculous claim that the city has been largely quiet for months. While it's true that this level of violence hasn't been seen in a couple of months, there are nightly battles in the northwest quadrant of the city, and there have been regular clashes at the airport just west of the city.

1253 GMT: Rebels Shell Chemical Weapons Depot. Al Safira has been under siege for months. The town southeast of Aleppo is an important roadside suburb, but that's not why everyone gets nervous when the name is mentioned. Just outside Al Safira sits a massive military installation that may contain the largest chemical weapons depot in the region (map). Today, however, the rebels have managed to successfully shell a building inside the base that may house some of this arsenal:

Redlines shenanigans: FSA managed to hit warehouse inside the defense production facility in Safira. Hopefully not CW youtube.com/watch?v=qD4xOX…

— Nuff Silence (@NuffSilence) April 25, 2013

It is worth noting that while there is a diverse group of Syrian rebels fighting in this area, the infamous Jabhat al Nusra and the Tawid Brigade have been leading the attack on the town. While the regime has a significant presence in the base and the town, they have been slipping for several days. But if the rebels are in range of hitting the base with shells, they may not have to actually capture the chemical weapons in order to cause a major problem.

1230 GMT: Damascus. Intense airstrikes and artillery bombardment continued to rock most of Damascus yesterday in another stage of intensification of the regime's campaign to retake the capital. The regime's efforts have met with mixed success. The rebels have lost ground in Jobar, but for the most part that area is still a front line. The rebels are gaining ground near the regime's vehicle base to the east of this, and their incursions just east of the front lines have been met with stiff resistance. In Darayya to the west, the regime has made limited gains, but they have paid for each inch with many lost armor. To the east, however, the regime may have broken through in Otaybah after weeks of trying. Rebel fighters have spoken to Reuters and they say that they have lost the town. Beyond that, however, it's unclear if the regime will be able to turn this victory into a significant victory. Otaybah lies at the rear of the rebel lines, so this could be a momentum change for the fighting near Damascus. Most likely, however, it just signifies that the grind that is the war for Damascus will not be over any time soon.

0550 GMT: Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claim 124 people were killed on Wednesday, including 27 each in Aleppo Province and in Damascus and its suburbs.

The Violations Documentation Center sets out a toll of 58.858 since the conflict begin in March 2011. Of those killed, 45,823 were civilians.

0510 GMT: Chemical Weapons

I noted on Wednesday that, while no one has been able to establish if chemical weapons have been used in the Syrian conflict, it is likely that the assertion of regime use will escalate --- not just over the specific issue, but to rationalise increased intervention by outside forces.

Yesterday's developments bore out that analysis. After Israeli officials declared confirmation of chemical weapons employed by the Assad military and US Secretary of State John Kerry asked NATO to consider action because of the threat, the Prime Minister of Qatar --- a key player in the support of the insurgency --- joined the accusations: "Chemicals? He used chemicals, and there is evidence."

British and French officials are also putting out the line that there has been “some use of chemical weapons".

No evidence has yet been presented to back up the claims, and it is possible that both the assertion of "soil samples" and even "some use of chemical weapons" could actually be evidence of ground chemcial, such as pesticides, disturbed by a conventional attack. Other theories that a mis-labelled chemical weapons was used or even that an individual regime brigade, amid a shaky command-and-control system, shelled without authority from the military leadership.

No matter. The political line that chemical weapons must have been used is likely to escalate.

As the commander of the insurgency's Joint Military Command, General Salim Idriss, told CNN on Tuesday, “We took some samples of the soil and of blood. The injured people were observed by doctors and the samples were tested and it was very clear that the regime used chemical weapons.