Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons Attack in Idlib Province?

Claimed footage of insurgents with a jet after moving into Abu Duhor airbase between Idlib and Aleppo

See also Syria Analysis: Chemical Weapons Attack --- Is This Plastic Canister A Vital Clue?

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1506 GMT: Death Toll Rising.

According to the Local Coordination Committees, 105 people have been killed so far today across the country:

34 martyrs were reported in Damascus and its suburbs, among them 13 martyrs in Marjeh explosion; 25 in Hama; 13 in Homs, among them 9 martyrs in Arbaeen neighborhood in Hama; 12 in Idlib; 8 in Daraa; 7 in Deir Ezzor; 5 in Aleppo; and 1 in Lattakia

The Local Coordination Committees (LCC) is an activist network operating both inside and outside of Syria. They claim to use stringent verification processes to ensure that a member of the LCC can vouch for any information posted either on their Facebook page or their website. The LCC also cooperates with an independent organization to populate database of those killed in the Syrian conflict, which can be seen at the website for the Center for Documentation of Violations in Syria.

The LCC's casualty figures are often a mix of insurgents and civilians, and never include regime casualties. Syrian State Media has stopped reporting regime casualty figures.

Also see our description of the Local Coordination Committees and how we utilize their reports in the Columbia Journalism Review.

1455 GMT: Obama Speaks About Syria.

President Obama is giving a press conference right now, and Syria has featured prominently. We'll have a full round up later, but here are a few key points - the US has evidence that chemical weapons have been used, though questions remain, and the use of chemical weapons is a "game changer," sort of:

Obama: My policy from the beginning was that Assad has lost credibility...and the only way to bring peace is for him to step down.

— Andy Carvin (@acarvin) April 30, 2013

#Obama: Working to "establish a clear baseline of facts" on chem weapons. The US is "deeply engaged" in trying to find solution to #Syria.

— Jonathan Landay (@JonathanLanday) April 30, 2013

Obama: by game-changer, we'd have to rethink the range of options available to us [re: Syria.]

— Andy Carvin (@acarvin) April 30, 2013

1447 GMT: Border Crossing Bombed.

More videos from Bab al Hawa, sent to us by Brown Moses. This first shows people near the explosion reacting immediately afterwards.

None of the videos appear to the reported aircraft. Eliot Higgins also says that the site of the reported blast (map) is only 200 meters from the Turkish border.

1435 GMT: Border Crossing Bombed.

The Bab al Hawa border crossing between Turkey and Syria has been bombed by an airstrike today, according to many sources. This is perhaps the most critical border crossing for Syrian refugees fleeing the conflict. The LCC posts a video of the immediate aftermath, with ambulances rushing to respond. Activists are reporting that at least 8 people have been killed, but this is both an unverified and initial number, and should be treated with caution:

1413 GMT: Chemical Weapons Update.

Yesterday, residents of Saraqib, in Idlib province, reported being attacked by chemical weapons. In our separate analysis, we analyze physical evidence left behind at several claimed chemical weapons attacks. We find that there is a clue, a canister or casing that may have actually delivered a chemical substance, and it has been found at at least two of the sites. Mysteries remain, but it is the first time that a solid lead has been found, evidence that arms experts can review.

See our separate Syria Analysis: Chemical Weapons Attack --- Is This Plastic Canister A Vital Clue?

Another mystery remains, however. What symptoms do the victims exhibit, and what chemical are those symptoms compatible with. The victims of yesterday's reported chemical attack have finally made it to a hospital near the border with Turkey, and Turkish doctors are looking to them now. While the Turkish doctors are taking full precautions, an anonymous Turkish official tells Al Jazeera English that they do not seen signs of a chemical weapon:

The official at the state-run hospital in the border town of Reyhanli said Tuesday staff wore special protective clothing and masks to treat a dozen Syrians wounded late Monday in an aerial attack in Idlib, northern Syria.

The official said, however, that there was no indication that chemical weapons were used and the hospital soon resumed normal operations.

We hope, however, that we hear more details about what signs the Turkish doctors are seeing, because something unexplained is going on here.

In our analysis of the reported Khan al Asal and Otaybah attack in March, and in our assessment of the claimed chemical attack in Homs in December, we noted that there was evidence that a noxious chemical had been inhaled by the victims, but it did not appear to match known profiles of chemical weapons such as sarin of chlorine gas.

Similarly, yesterday's potential device, analyzed in our separate entry, does not match the known profile of any chemical delivering weapon we've found yet, though there are some similarities. Several experts we've consulted are convinced, however, that this is a weapon. But it couldn't have been a particularly powerful chemical weapon. Throughout several videos, mean are seen handling the canister without gas masks. If this was sarin, the body count would be high and the canister would be nearly untouchable. If this was chlorine, we'd expect to see far more visible symptoms of the victims' skin.

Something unexplained has happened in Saraqib, just as something unexplained has happened in perhaps 5-10 different incidents across Syria. Yesterday's video, however, does indicate that an aircraft dropped something immediately before these symptoms. The victims need to be treated and analyzed, and the physical evidence needs to be obtained and studied, in order to explain these incidents. Before, the likelihood of that happening was very low. Now, the likelihood appears to be much higher.

1350 GMT: Damascus Bomb Blast.

A large bombing has torn through the Marjeh district in central Damascus, just one day after a car bomb in the Mezzeh district appeared to be an unsuccessful assassination attempt against Syria's Prime Minister. Two people were killed in yesterday's blast, according to State media, but 13 have been killed and 70 injured today, according to SANA. It's not clear how the device was transported and detonated. The pictures from State media appear to show a significant amount of damage, whereas yesterday's car bomb appeared to be very small.

No one has claimed responsibility for either today's bombing or yesterday's assassination attempt.

James Miller takes over today's live coverage. Thanks to Scott Lucas for getting us started this morning.

0430 GMT: Casualties

The Local Coordination Committees claim 119 people were killed on Monday, including 36 in Damascus and its suburbs and 34 in Aleppo Province.

The Violations Documentation Center puts the confirmed death toll at 58,683 since the conflict begin in March 2011, an increase of 143 from Monday.

Of those killed, 461,165 were civilians, a rise of 67 from yesterday.

0410 GMT: A Regime Chemical Weapons Attack?

On a busy Monday, which began with a car bomb targeting but failing to kill Prime Minister Wael al-Halki, the central event a claimed chemical weapons attack on Saraqeb in Idlib Province.

Pictures and videos showed purported victims of the attack, but investigation was hampered by the reported failure of Turkey to allow the injured to be taken across the border.

Another major clue may be an air-dropped canister, shown in a photograph, which was allegedly used to disperse the chemical. While the canaister resembles other polymer sub-munitions, it has not been seen before and EA's James Miller is still working to identify it.

There was more unconfirmed drama on Monday, as the Interfax news agency claimed a Russian passenger plane on its way back from Egypt was fired on while over Syria.

And this morning, the Free Syrian Army is claiming that it has taken Abu Duhor airport between Idlib and Aleppo (see video at top of entry).