Iran Analysis: What Rafsanjani's Entry Into The Presidential Race Means

By an Iran-based EA correspondent

After weeks of speculation, innuendo and false starts, Hashemi Rafsanjani delivered the latest blow of his storied political career.

Less than half an hour before the end of the five-day registration period, the veteran Iranian politician and cleric upstaged a controversial appearance by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his anointed successor, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, at the Interior Ministry.

From his seat just three tables away from Mashai, Rafsanjani signed the forms confirming his candidacy for next month’s presidential elections.

Ahmadinejad and Mashai had entered the imposing building from the back door, but Rafsanjani made a grand and far more dramatic entrance through the front door after getting out of his Mercedes-Benz sedan - a fact much maligned later by the hardline Rajanews website.

Rafsanjani’s eleventh hour - or, as the Persian saying goes, 90th minute - entry into a very crowded presidential contest marks the end of months of speculation over his choices. In retrospect, the decision to avoid pressing for leniency towards his daughter Faezeh, who served the full six months of her jail sentence, or ensuring that his “fugitive” son Mehdi would return to Iran, can be viewed as astute moves to cleanse the Rafsanjani clan’s shaky record and ensure that no impediments would be in place when the senior Hashemi entered the Interior Ministry building to register.

Rafsanjani must have mulled the decision for several weeks, as it became increasing clear that the contest was steering towards a ragged race between several lacklustre hardliners, headlined by the suave Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and a few weak reformists. Former president Mohammad Khatami’s steadfast refusal to accept increasing calls for his candidacy reinforced this position. Hashemi kept his cards very close to his chest: fearful of a no-show by their mentor and associate, moderate politicians such as Hassan Rowhani, Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad-Reza Aref, chose to register earlier on to ensure that they would act as the unlikely head of the reformist-pragmatic formations in the June race. They did promise however, to promptly withdraw from the race if Hashemi were to run.

The turning point in the saga came on Wednesday, when Mohammad Khatami contradicted the statements by Rowhani and by the influential former intelligence minister Ali Younesi, who both claimed, during the former’s registration in the morning, that Rafsanjani had made up his mind not to run.

“I am very pleased to have heard that Rafsanjani is running, subject to the Leader’s approval” the former president stated, prior to pointing out that in the past Khamenei had stated that “no figure is quite Hashemi”. Through this statement, relayed on his official website, Khatami confirmed both his unequivocal support for Rafsanjani and the fact that all responsibilities for Rafsanjani’s no-show had to be attributed to Khamenei’s reticence.

His name finally on the list, Rafsanjani must now prepare for the fourth presidential campaign of his seeming endless political career. He is now endowed with the experience of his sour loss in 2005, which he attributed to never specified irregularities, and the momentous election of 2009. One can assume that the battle-hardened cleric, now approaching 80 years of age, will have entered this contest unwilling to end up beaten by an upstart such as he was eight years ago, or risk the house arrest his allies have endured as a consequence of the 2009 poll. He will therefore tread his steps with caution and tact, benefitting from the electoral machinery of the residual elements of the reformist-Green camp while attempting to mend fences with the ever-suspicious Supreme Leader. Central to Rafsanjani’s guidelines will be the realisation that the country is effectively in a state of crisis, which only him can truly solve.

However, the Supreme Leader's position on Rafsanjani's move, and whether Khamenei provided a direct seal of approval to the former president, remains to be seen. Indeed, this is the big unknown as the next phase of the presidential race - the wait for the results of the screening process which the Guardian Council will now commence - gets underway.

Rafsanjani is shielded from being disapproved, but the same cannot be said for Rahim Mashai and a few radical reformists, such as Ebrahim Asgharzadeh or Akbar Alami. Rafsanjani's entry into the race will most likely prompt conservative factions to reshuffle and unite around a single candidate, fearing a costly and probably fatal dispersal of the vote.

The conservative field has an unwieldy number of candidates. According to the ISNA news agency, no fewer than 37 inner-regime figures have registered amongst the nearly 700 candidacies lodged at the Interior Ministry. Even if the Guardian Council strikes out more than a dozen of these, there will still be more than 20 candidates remaining. To have a chance against Hashemi, the run-away favourite of many opinion polls, the conservative figures will have to unite on the most popular figure, likely Qalibaf. However, that is made difficult by the lack of unity over Qalibaf, the presence of figures tied to the security establishment such as Jalili and Velayati and by the uncertain behaviour of Ahmadinejad, who stated quite clearly that he is backing Mashai.

Adding to the unknowns and uncertainties of this unique contest is the behaviour of the IRGC leadership, which is bereft of a clear candidate stemming from its own ranks. The oft-quoted rumor of a step into politics of the famed and fabled Quds commander Qassem Soleimani failed to materialise, as did a candidacy by Yahya Rahim Safavi or any other senior IRGC figure.

Moreover, Hashemi’s residual support within the elite body, as well as the pockets of support enjoyed by Qalibaf, Jalili and other former IRGC-linked candidates could further rekindle divisions and factionalism within the Guards.

None of this bodes well for the Supreme Leader, whose role in the election will starts on Sunday.

Amid all this uncertainty, one thing is sure: there is little exaggeration in the claim made by some Tehran dailies that Saturday was an historic day. As often happens, Iranian presidential elections thrust the Islamic Republic into unchartered territory and months of political uncertainty and suspense.