The Latest from Iran (30 January): Posturing Over Oil

A map of Tehran's oil exports

See also The Latest from Iran (29 January): Future Election, Past Election, House Arrest

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2039 GMT: A Shift in the Awakening. The Supreme Leader has sent a message to an international youth conference in Tehran, centred on the theme of the "Islamic Awakening".

Much of the message, put out by Ayatollah Khamenei's Twitter account, is standard rhetoric: "The Zionists, Great Satan (USA), & Western powers are incapable in facing the Islamic awakening, & they'll fail more & more."

This, however, catches the eye: "Due to geographical, historical and social differences, there is no single model that can be applied to Islamic countries."

Hmm... Last year, just after the Egyptian uprising had removed President Mubarak, the Supreme Leader put out a message that Iran's Islamic Revolution was precisely that model.

So why has the line changed?

2027 GMT: Currency Watch. Gholam-Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam, the head of Parliament's Economy Committee, has blamed currency fluctuations on "poor Government and poor management by the Central Bank".

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (29 January): Future Election, Past Election, House Arrest

A Comment on the Currency Situation: President Ahmadinejad vs. the US Dollar

See also Iran Update: Guardian Council Approves New Islamic Penal Code
The Latest from Iran (28 January): Back to the Battle Within

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2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More than 140 writers, journalists, artists, and activists have issued a statement condemning the new wave of repression and arrests, noting in particular the detention of prominent literary translator Mohammad Soleimani Nia.

Soleimani Nia was seized on 10 January and taken to an unknown location.

2130 GMT: Execution Watch. International media have noticed, from Iranian outlets such as Fars, that the death sentence has been confirmed for Iranian-Canadian web designer Saeed Malekpour.

In fact, the news is old --- Malekpour was condemned at least 11 days ago by the Revolutionary Court in Tehran, which has confirmed the punishment for several bloggers and website operators in recent weeks.

Malekpour was arrested in October 2008 and charged with disseminating obscene materials via the Web.

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The Latest from Iran (24 December): Watching Some Boats, Watching The Currency

1735 GMT: Bank Fraud Watch. Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei has said that four MPs have been summoned and interrogated over the $2.6 billion bank fraud, involving 200 properties of the Aria Group.

Mohseni Ejei did not name the MPs, but one legislator has said that Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament's National Security Commission, and his sons have been arrested and released on bail.

Mohseni also said five managers of Aria Group companies, including the Chief Executive Officer of Ahwaz Steel, have been arrested.

1715 GMT: The Battle Within. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, one of the leading forces in the Islamic Constancy Front, sets up the group's approach for the Parliamentary elections in March --- total obedience to the Supreme Leader, with a fight against the seditious current and "intrusive elements", but also a tip of support to the President: "After the rule of the reformists, Ahmadinejad was the best choice (in 2005)."

The Constancy Front has been fighting other conservatives and principlists who have been seeking "unity" before the elections.

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The Latest from Iran (23 December): The Ahmadinejad All-Is-Well Show

1540 GMT: Tehran's Israeli Friend. Bloomberg has published a report asserting that the Israeli communications company Allot Communications Ltd has shipped cyber-surveillance equipment to Tehran through a Denmark-based distributor.

Allot's Chief Executive Officer Ramy Hadar denied the report, "Allot's equipment was sold to a Denmark-based distributor, the same way it is sold to thousands of distributors and tens of thousands of clients worldwide. We have no way of knowing where our equipment ends up. We have no ties with Iran. You can get our equipment online --- like on eBay."

Israeli officials denied any knowledge of the shipments. The Defense Ministry said it is investigating the report.

1534 GMT: Economy Watch. Alef, the site linked to MP Ahmad Tavakoli, continues its attack on the Government's economic policies. It carries an analysis tying the fall of the Iranian currency to President Ahmadinejad's subsidy cuts.

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The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....

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2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post summarises the dramatic developments over Iran's currency and Tehran's trade with the United Arab Emirates, and links the two events:

Iranian officials including the ambassador to the [UAE], Mohammad Reza Fayyaz, initially confirmed Tuesday that Iran had cut trade ties with its third-largest trading partner, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Iranian Econews agency also quoted Mehdi Ghazanfari, the minister of industries and business, as saying that trade with the United Arab Emirates was halted because of its “anti-Iranian positions".

Following the statements, the rial fell to unprecedented lows against the dollar Tuesday, amounting to a 15 percent loss in value over the past three days, the Fars News Agency reported.

“There is sheer panic in the market,” one steel trader said. “The price of the dollar is increasing by the hour.”

Iran’s currency also dropped sharply in October 2010 after the United Arab Emirates implemented sanctions against Iran.

After Tuesday’s plunge, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi denied that Iranian-U.A.E. trade relations were cut. He said the emirates had simply been “warned” not to go along with sanctions proposed by the United States, Fars News Agency reported.

While the linkage is a bit too simple --- the Iranian currency has been falling for weeks, with an accelerated decline in the last few days before the trade announcement --- Erdbrink usefully describes the confusion and even chaos within Iran's establishment:

Adding to the confusion, the Iran-U.A.E. Chamber of Commerce said it had received a letter from the Central Bank of Iran banning all trade in dirhams, the U.A.E. currency, starting Tuesday.

Massoud Daneshmand, chairman of the joint chamber, pleaded for calm, Mehr reported. “The U.A.E. trades with Iran for at least $25 billion,” the agency quoted him as saying. “Any decision about this country should be thoroughly thought through.”

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The Latest from Iran (4 May): Economy Watch

2010 GMT: Cabinet Watch. Back to today's confusing chapter in the crisis over the President and his attempted dismissal of the Minister of Intelligence....

The website 7 AM, close to Presidential aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, offers an explanation for why Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi was reportedly at the Cabinet meeting (see 1225 GMT) but did not appear in the photograph issued by the President's office (see 1610 GMT).

7 AM says "an informed source in the President's office (Rahim-Mashai?) denied" that "the President ordered the Minister of Information out of the Cabinet meeting". The source adds that going in and out of the Cabinet meeting "is not unusual".

Click to read more ...