The Latest from Iran (17 January): Questioning the Supreme Leader

Former MP Emad Afrough, on State TV, says the people should be able to question and dismiss the Supreme Leader

See also Iran Opinion: Manipulating a Murder in Tehran
The Latest from Iran (16 January): Economic Jitters

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2049 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Marzieh Rasouli has been arrested tonight at her home in Tehran.

Rasouli, who has written for Shargh, writes mainly about books and music.

2034 GMT: Justice Watch. Mohammad Seifzadeh, prominent lawyer and one of the founding members of the Center for Defenders of Human Rights, refused to participate in his trial on 11 January 2012, according to his wife and lawyer, Fatemeh Golzar.

Golzar said, “Mr. Seifzadeh believes the Revolutionary Court is unqualified to handle his case. He forwent participation in the trial because of the court’s lack of competence and lack of a jury at his trial -- - which is one of the deficiencies that make this not a fair trial --- and for other, similar reasons."

In November 2010, Seifzadeh was sentenced to nine years in prison --- later reduced to two on appeal --- and a 10-year ban on practicing law, following charges of acting against national security by participating in the establishment of the CDHR.

In spring 2011, the lawyer was detained, charged with “illegal exit” out of the country, and sent to Evin Prison, where he was charged with “collusion and acting against national security” for his writings. These include a letter to former President Mohammad Khatami, former President of Iran; two articles critical of the way amnesty is applied in the law and of the definition of political crimes; and collective statements in prison.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Men Strike 1st Blow in the Elections

0545 GMT: This will be a long, complex election process up to March's formal ballot for Parliamentary seats, but it looks like Ahmadinejad supporters can claim a victory in the first skirmish.

On Tuesday, news emerged of the first decisions on who would and would not be allowed to stand among the almost 5400 applicants. The regime spin is that more than 80% made it past the scrutiny of officials of the Ministry of Interior, but the significant story lay in the banning of at least 32 of Iran's 290 MPs.

The banned legislators are from across the political spectrum, but at least nine of them are united in their high-profile criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government. Examples include Ali Motahari, who has led the drive to question and possibly impeach the President; Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Energy Committee who has challenged the Government over the economy as well as the energy sector; and Dariush Ghanbari, a leading reformist voice.

Ghanbari's exclusion also raises an interesting dimension in the battle. The blocking of other reformists occurred even though the Supreme Leader's offices, as well as other factions within the establishment, have pressed hard for their participation, both through running for election and through voting on 2 March.

That can lead, I think, to only one conclusion. Those who put the black mark on the high-profile candidates were doing so in support of the President and, to some extent, in defiance of the wishes of the Supreme Leader's advisors.

The decision is far from final. The Guardian Council, the highest-level supervisor of the electoral process, will review all the applicants --- it can re-instate those who have been blocked, and it can ban others. Presuming that the Council is more in line with the wishes of Ayatollah Khamenei, and is not so amenable to Ahmadinejad's inner circle, MPs like Motahari and Ghanbari are likely to be approved.

But that is for later. For now, some people within the Iranian system have tried to make clear that the President is no lame duck and the Supreme Leader does not always get his way.

The Latest from Iran (29 December): Ahmadinejad on the Campaign Trail

See also Iran Feature: Why Tehran Can't Cut Off Oil Through The Straits of Hormuz
The Latest from Iran (28 December): Look! State-of-the-Art Torpedoes!

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2200 GMT: And A Bit More of a Break. Apologies to readers, but we are going to extend the holiday overnight. We'll be back by 0700 GMT with a feisty opening to Friday's LiveBlog.

1722 GMT: A Break from Propaganda. We are on a holiday break at the moment --- all we are missing, we think, is another round of bluster about fake war from the Iranian media, "Iran Bombers Pound Mock Targets".

1319 GMT: Sedition Watch. One of the showpieces this week of the regime's "victory over sedition campaign", celebrating the 2nd anniversary of the counter-rally against the Green Movement, has been a report for Parliamentary outlining an attempt at "velvet revolution" involving the US, Israel, Britain, and Iranian politicians such as former President Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

There has been a glitch in the proceedings, however. Conservative MP Ali Motahari, a staunch foe of President Ahmadinejad, has declared, "If we accept the Article 90 Commission's report on the 2009 elections, we have to accept the report of Ahmad Shaheed [the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights] as well."

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The Latest from Iran (25 December): A Compliment for the Supreme Leader?

0755 GMT: Elections Watch. Yesterday we highlighted a statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a leader of the Islamic Constancy Front, positioning it before March's Parliamentary elections with declarations of loyalty to the Supreme Leader but support for the camp of President Ahmadinejad. An EA reader extends the analysis by noting Mesbah Yazdi's assault on the reformists, whom anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives are hoping to bring into the elections --- he summarises Yazdi's comments:

Reformists started the "deviations" right after [the Iran/Iraq] war, because they could not during the war. Reformists denounced velayat-e faqih [clerical supremacy] and started the separation of Islam from politics and democracy. We chose Ahmadinejad [in 2005] because he had the guts to run with Islamic slogans, unlike everyone else afraid of losing people's votes....The Constancy Front is worried, for the sake of "unity", that seditionists will be allowed to join as "principlists" and gain power again.

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The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within

See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....

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2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post summarises the dramatic developments over Iran's currency and Tehran's trade with the United Arab Emirates, and links the two events:

Iranian officials including the ambassador to the [UAE], Mohammad Reza Fayyaz, initially confirmed Tuesday that Iran had cut trade ties with its third-largest trading partner, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Iranian Econews agency also quoted Mehdi Ghazanfari, the minister of industries and business, as saying that trade with the United Arab Emirates was halted because of its “anti-Iranian positions".

Following the statements, the rial fell to unprecedented lows against the dollar Tuesday, amounting to a 15 percent loss in value over the past three days, the Fars News Agency reported.

“There is sheer panic in the market,” one steel trader said. “The price of the dollar is increasing by the hour.”

Iran’s currency also dropped sharply in October 2010 after the United Arab Emirates implemented sanctions against Iran.

After Tuesday’s plunge, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi denied that Iranian-U.A.E. trade relations were cut. He said the emirates had simply been “warned” not to go along with sanctions proposed by the United States, Fars News Agency reported.

While the linkage is a bit too simple --- the Iranian currency has been falling for weeks, with an accelerated decline in the last few days before the trade announcement --- Erdbrink usefully describes the confusion and even chaos within Iran's establishment:

Adding to the confusion, the Iran-U.A.E. Chamber of Commerce said it had received a letter from the Central Bank of Iran banning all trade in dirhams, the U.A.E. currency, starting Tuesday.

Massoud Daneshmand, chairman of the joint chamber, pleaded for calm, Mehr reported. “The U.A.E. trades with Iran for at least $25 billion,” the agency quoted him as saying. “Any decision about this country should be thoroughly thought through.”

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The Latest from Iran (16 November): Non-Appearances

A Green Movement poster opposing any military attack on Iran

See also Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad --- A Phoenix Rising from the Ashes?
The Latest from Iran (15 November): After the Explosion

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2100 GMT: The Explosion. Digarban goes back into the question of the death toll of Saturday's blast at the Revolutionary Guards base and --- contrary to the latest claim of the Guards of 17 deaths --- comes up with the names of 36 people who were killed.

The list is taken from accounts in IRNA, Fars, and Mehr.

2050 GMT: CrimeStoppers. MP Hosein Harati has declared that the Supreme Leader is the leader of the movement preventing crime in Iran.

If so, Ayatollah Khamenei has gone a big task --- Harati said that, in a country of 75 million people, there are 10 million criminal files.

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The Latest from Iran (4 November): Ahmadinejad Punches Back

Iranians demonstrate on the 32nd anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy

See also Iran-Israel War Talk: "Do We Always Have to Be Taken In By This Transparent Ploy?"
Iran-Israel Opinion: Why Jerusalem Is Making War Noises
The Latest from Iran (3 November): Threats, Threats, More Threats

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2120 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Another angle on Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami's address to the faithful (see 1515 GMT), as Fars picks up the warning to the Bahraini and Saudi regimes: "With these crimes, you will have the fate of Qaddafi and the treacherous Saddam."

But, in the end, today's message came back to America: "The US administration has never seen such days of humiliation."

2050 GMT: Economy Watch. Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, a leading MP on economic affairs, has warned that people will spend part of their support payments for subsidy cuts to buy foreign currencies, which are rising in value against the Iranian currency.

An EA correspondent analyses, "There is much chatter about people buying dollars because of fear of more sanctions and a worsening economy."

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The Latest from Iran (15 October): Cutting Through The Noise

Ali Motahari1810 GMT: Economy (Mismanagement) Watch. MP Musalreza Sarvati has claimed that Parliament is ignoring the Ahmadinejad Administration's $15 billion shortfall in the approvied budget. Sarvati also asserted that the administration has withdrawn $4.5 billion from the Central Ban, without depositing a compensating amount into the Treasury.

1805 GMT: The House Arrests. The three children of detained Mir Hossein Mousavi have met with Fatemeh Karroubi, who has also been under house arrest for eight months.

Mousavi's children said they have been denied phone contact with parents, whom they have not seen them in five weeks.

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The Latest from Iran (12 October): A Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador?

See also Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?
Iran Feature: 10 Questions About the "Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: The Formal Complaint over "Plot to Kill Saudi Ambassador to US"
Iran Document: US Account of the "Plot to Murder the Saudi Ambassador to Washington"

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Attorney General Eric Holder and Director of FBI Robert Mueller set out the allegations of the Iran-backed plot to kill the Saudi Ambassador to the US

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1810 GMT: Space Watch. Sad news from Iran --- the monkey died.

Last week, we reported that Iran had indefinitely postponed plans to send a live monkey into space, without giving any reasons. Hamid Fazeli, head of Iran's Space Organisation, said, "One cannot give a set date for this project and as soon as our nation's scientists announce the readiness, it will be announced."

The rest of the story came out today. Deputy Science Minister Mohammad Mehdinejad-Nouri said, "The Kavoshgar-5 rocket carrying a capsule with a live animal was launched during Shahrivar (23 August to 22 September). However, the launch was not publicised as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished.

Mehdinejad-Nouri insisted that the launch of a live animal into space was "strategic, and a priority".

1800 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. More on Ayatollah Khamenei's speech in Kermanshah today....

The Supreme Leader gave this advice to the Iranian people for Parliamentary elections: "Vote for those who are not connected to the centres of power and wealth".

A video extract of the Supreme Leader's address:

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The Latest from Iran (26 September): Let the Battles Resume....

US nationals Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, freed after 26 months in an Iranian prison, offer remarks in New York

See also Iran Video Special: Mothers of Victims Sohrab Arabi & Neda Agha Soltan Respond to Ahmadinejad's New York Statements

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1650 GMT: The US Hikers. Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has taken offence at the comments of US national Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, free on $500,000 bail each after 26 months in detention in Tehran, on their return to New York (see top of entry and 0445 GMT).

Fattal and Bauer said they had been held for no more than being Americans at a time of tension between the US and Iran and had described hearing the abuse of other detainees in Evin Prison. Mohseni-Ejei declared, "It's predictable, each time we release [people like] them, saying these words against Iran." He continued, "It is clear that these remarks are contrary to fact, and of course, we expected no more than this."

Mohseni-Ejei dismissed any political issue over the judiciary's delay in releasing Bauer and Fattal for more than a week after President Ahmadinejad told US media they would be freed: "Any individual may call for the arrest and freeing of a prisoner, but ultimately it is up to the judge who issued the warrant."

Fattal and Bauer's State-appointed lawyer Massoud Shafiee also was unhappy with the remarks of the two Americans --- it was "not true" that they had been mistreated in prison. He said, "If my clients contact me, as an Iranian national, I will definitely inform them of my protest at their baseless claims....Why have they made such allegations when their problem has been resolved and they have left the country?"

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